your first hand of the WSOP ME ... |
|
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:53 am GMT by ki_cz
And you have AA, 2 people go all-in before you, do you call?
What about with 3 people going all in before you?
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Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:56 am GMT by supafrey
Yes.
7 in and i call.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:06 am GMT by ki_cz
| supafrey wrote: | Yes.
7 in and i call. |
What about 8?
:D
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:07 am GMT by supafrey
That's a whole lot of rich, stupid people.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:30 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
With three people going all in before me I'd probably fold...
Two or less I make the call no problem obviously.
EDIT: On 2nd thought i'll call with 3 players all in before me.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 1:14 pm GMT by Icec0o1
Here's the thing...you'll have around 50% to win that pot and that's a 1 in 2 to quadripple+ up. I will always take that even if all 9 other players go all in.
The point is that yes, you can wait and pound on hands where you find yourself in a 70/30 or better situation but it won't be for as many chips. You'll have to win 2 or 3 70/30's in order for you to quadripple up and it comes out worse than taking the 40-50% chance to gain a lot of chips especially early so you can play the whole tournament with a big stack.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 1:18 pm GMT by khaosanroad
If I actually paid the 10k i might fold, if i got there on a website satellite I'm all-in
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:10 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
You have to gamble to win, and putting 30k in my stack on hand #1 is a great way to start.
All in.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:25 pm GMT by Loonbat
| Icec0o1 wrote: | Here's the thing...you'll have around 50% to win that pot and that's a 1 in 2 to quadripple+ up. I will always take that even if all 9 other players go all in.
The point is that yes, you can wait and pound on hands where you find yourself in a 70/30 or better situation but it won't be for as many chips. You'll have to win 2 or 3 70/30's in order for you to quadripple up and it comes out worse than taking the 40-50% chance to gain a lot of chips especially early so you can play the whole tournament with a big stack. |
Ok - I call, but I'm not seeing myself as a 50% fav to quad up. As vs 3 hands are rarely going to have that chance to win.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:31 pm GMT by BMiller1980
I would love to play against ANYONE that is too chicken to call an all-in preflop with Rockets.
Thats sad, just sad... 
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:37 pm GMT by crack
I have already seen all this folding AA preflop stuff and what not and I would call this every single day of the week and twice on sundays.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:38 pm GMT by Icec0o1
| Loonbat wrote: | | Icec0o1 wrote: | Here's the thing...you'll have around 50% to win that pot and that's a 1 in 2 to quadripple+ up. I will always take that even if all 9 other players go all in.
The point is that yes, you can wait and pound on hands where you find yourself in a 70/30 or better situation but it won't be for as many chips. You'll have to win 2 or 3 70/30's in order for you to quadripple up and it comes out worse than taking the 40-50% chance to gain a lot of chips especially early so you can play the whole tournament with a big stack. |
Ok - I call, but I'm not seeing myself as a 50% fav to quad up. As vs 3 hands are rarely going to have that chance to win. |
Then head over to a poker calculator and check it out yourself 
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:57 pm GMT by snoogins47
| BMiller1980 wrote: | | I would love to play against ANYONE that is too chicken to call an all-in preflop with Rockets. |
QFT
| Quote: | | If I actually paid the 10k i might fold, if i got there on a website satellite I'm all-in |
This is probably backwards for me. The only time I would even think about folding (and I wouldn't, though I might make some nitty stupid laydown on the bubble) is if I won my way through a satellite. Sacrificing some long term EV so I can be more certain my $40 turns into at least $10k seems like something I could see myself possibly doing.
Regardless, I like that everybody is saying call.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 4:24 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
I thought when you played poker you play to produce the highest +EV.
If that means playing for the win, thats what you do. If it means take it a little more cautious and try to move up the pay scale you do that. Just remeber, you can never "win" a tournament until there are only 2 people left.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 4:54 pm GMT by Loonbat
| Icec0o1 wrote: | | Loonbat wrote: | | Icec0o1 wrote: | Here's the thing...you'll have around 50% to win that pot and that's a 1 in 2 to quadripple+ up. I will always take that even if all 9 other players go all in.
The point is that yes, you can wait and pound on hands where you find yourself in a 70/30 or better situation but it won't be for as many chips. You'll have to win 2 or 3 70/30's in order for you to quadripple up and it comes out worse than taking the 40-50% chance to gain a lot of chips especially early so you can play the whole tournament with a big stack. |
Ok - I call, but I'm not seeing myself as a 50% fav to quad up. As vs 3 hands are rarely going to have that chance to win. |
Then head over to a poker calculator and check it out yourself |
Pokerstoved it using random hands and the likely hands (Ks, Qs, AKs and a couple others) ... aces are generally a 60% favorite - yer right, I'm wrong ... I'm off to cry.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:44 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
2 all ins before me I call
3 I think about it but prolly still call
4 or more and i lay down my 1 pair for all my chips 1st hand of a huge tourney field.
Anyone who says 'I call" with AA when 9 ppl are all in before them doesn't understand tournament theory.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:46 pm GMT by supafrey
| wEbMaStEr wrote: | 2 all ins before me I call
3 I think about it but prolly still call
4 or more and i lay down my 1 pair for all my chips 1st hand of a huge tourney field.
Anyone who says 'I call" with AA when 9 ppl are all in before them doesn't understand tournament theory. |
Tournament theory says that if I have a 10 buyin stack within 1 hand of the start I will completely and totally overrun the field while going for first.
Sounds more like you're playing your tourneys underrolled. If you'd do this for a 1 dollar tourney you should do this for a 10k ME. The buyin is irrelevant, right? It's all in proportion to your roll?
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:51 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
It also says 'you lose you're out' and since your chance of AA holding up v 9 random hands is about 20% (ish) you have an 80% chance of being out.
If you're out you can't win.
Sure in a cash game or rebuy you call every time, in a freezeout... It's poor play, but feel free to do it if you wish, it might work.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:54 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
Buy-in is irrelevant, the theory works regardless of buy-in, correct play is correct play regardless of whether it's a $1 tourney or a $1 million tourney
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:55 pm GMT by supafrey
80% chance of being out vs 20% chance of being a 10x chipleader the first hand of a tournament that has a top heavy payout?
If we're assuming the standard "rule" of having 100+ buyins for any tournament we enter, why would this 1/5 chance be a poor decision?
or are we just caught up in the hype of what the "main event" represents?
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:57 pm GMT by snoogins47
The only real question here, is do we get enough of an edge based on surviving, to make up for sacrificing a lot of chip EV? My guess is: probably not.
Half theoretical, half faux-philosophical question of the day: is there really a $ value to surviving? What are we waiting for: sure things, or good gambles? If it weren't for our human bias and the fact that we're stuck in the short-run, is there a difference? What t-shirt should I wear tonight, and why?
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:57 pm GMT by Johny
Having a massive stack on day 1 of the ME isn't worth being out 80% of the time. There are too many players to make risking your tournament life for a big stack worth it.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:58 pm GMT by Hurricane Ham
Would you fold the nuts at any other point in a hand?
Probably not.
That being said, it depends on if you want to have a longer ME experience or not. Taking a chance going out on the very first hand might not be something you want to do. You may prefer to stick around just so you can play longer and have more of an experience, rather than being out in 1 minute.
I call, because I see nothing wrong with busting with AA all in pre-flop pretty much any time.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:00 pm GMT by supafrey
| Johny wrote: | | Having a massive stack on day 1 of the ME isn't worth being out 80% of the time. There are too many players to make risking your tournament life for a big stack worth it. |
Having a big stack at ANY stage of the tournament makes the exponential growth of said stack infinitely easier. Not to mention with the quality of players, the amount of races we'll surely have to do, and assuming a somewhat decent amount of skill, this 10 buyin buffer will allow us to capitalize on bad players for the 7 days.
Not to mention that this early on a GOOD deal of the crappy/onlinequalified/freerolling chips are STILL in play, and suddenly we have the stack to play the 60/40s with them without worrying about our seat. All this 1/5th of the time in a tourney that offers us a disproportionate amount of money for us if we win?
Yes please.
Edit: Exactly ham. If you want an "experience" sure.. do whatever you want. This is still the right play.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:02 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Johny wrote: | | Having a massive stack on day 1 of the ME isn't worth being out 80% of the time. There are too many players to make risking your tournament life for a big stack worth it. |
Not to be a ninny, but while we can all agree that optimum tournament strategy is a fuzzy beast and doesn't precisely mirror Tournament Chip EV (that becomes much more pronounced later on) I think generally anybody who suggests folding when we have a pretty large edge is the one who gets the burden of proof. I don't see how 'too many players' necessarily leads to wanting to fold AA here.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:03 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
You may have missed this part....
| wEbMaStEr wrote: | | Buy-in is irrelevant, the theory works regardless of buy-in, correct play is correct play regardless of whether it's a $1 tourney or a $1 million tourney |
To say 'f*ck it, i'll just play in another tourney tomorrow is still incorrect play.
What is 100k after hand 1? It means you only need to collect another 89,900,000 chips to win the tourney. So it represents what? just over 1% of the chips you need to win?
If you consistantly make 4:1 against bets in a tourney you will get nowhere near the prizemoney
(theoretically)
Much better to pick spots where you are an odds on favourite, the bigger the better, to get all in preflop.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:05 pm GMT by snoogins47
1% is nice if it's ten times what we started with.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:08 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
Remember it's a 4:1 (ish) against chance of 1% of the chips you need.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:08 pm GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | If you consistantly make 4:1 against bets in a tourney you will get nowhere near the prizemoney |
That's not what we're doing.
And a 4:1 with 10:1 money reward sounds pretty good to me. Especially if I can do the same thing the next day. And the next day. And the next day.
Better question: Assuming you have an infinite roll and infinite amount of MEs that start staggered every day all year. Then do you call?
Second better question: How much better do you play when you have 100k chips, and everyone else at your table has 10k? Do you just play 5 times better? Or is it actually 100 times easier, all of a sudden? Is the benefit of having 1% of the chips REALLY THAT LINEAR?!
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:10 pm GMT by crack
Well first,
let's just say that there is going to be no chance of all players going all in first hand of the WSOP, so already we have a silly example.
The decision I think depends on the edge you have in the tournament.
You can fold your AA if you think there is like a massive massive chance you are going to get a big payday because you will completly run over every single player and make it to the FT.
However let's be realistic, your edge is not going to be so big in an event with 5k+ entrants and top pro players in it.
I agree with supa, I am playing the tournament to win and to have such a big chiplead if the best hand holds up, is lot better than to fold, then stick around mid stack obscurity, trying to squeeze into the cash.
Peoples opinons are going to differ so much on this subject, mainly because it's so ludicrous that people don't quite understand it.
I am happy that this subject has come up actually. I think it shows the cognotive thinking of the forum.
I am umming and arring over if I should give you the correct answer. I am not being superior, but I have already seen this debate in two other forums and an IRC chat, and thought about it and know the correct decision.
I will leave it and see if anybody comes up with it.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:13 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
To use another example to try and explain how bad a bet it would be to call all in with AA after 9 all ins before you....
7-2 off suit isn't going to be that far behind AA in the above situation.... How many of you would call with 7-2 offsuit for a chance of 100K in chips?
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:14 pm GMT by snoogins47
| wEbMaStEr wrote: | | Remember it's a 4:1 (ish) against chance of 1% of the chips you need. |
4(out) to 1(1%) = 0.2%
Having 10k = 0.1%
If we're assuming that we are precisely a 4:1 underdog, and we will be out if we lose, have 100k if we win, and have 10k now, we're sacrificing, on average, 10k chips by folding. I'm not even necessarily saying that folding has to be wrong, because I don't have enough of a mathematically gifted mind to actually figure out tournament strategy, but how can sacrificing this much be good just because we're a longshot to win anyway?
To over simplify because it's orders of magnitude easier to do: assuming we're playing to win and win only (moving up the payscale doesn't really come into play as of yet) if we're 10x as likely to win with 100k as we are with 10k, we're twice as likely to win if we call here with AA than we are if we fold. That's including the fact that we bust out the majority of the time.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:20 pm GMT by supafrey
I want to see ANYONE.. and i mean ANYONE fold in the BB of the first hand of a 10,000 person $1 tourney if they look down at AA and everyone's gone all in before them.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:20 pm GMT by Oasis
I agree. There's also this point which justifys a call.
If you fold the nuts and let a guy take down a huge pot (with the said 3-4 all in's) and this player knows anything about how to use a bigstack then you're going to be stuffed. Your reasons to fold are flawed. You want to "survive"; but you're not going to be doing much of that if you are up against a monster stack at your table who knows how to use it.
I'd call in a flash.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:21 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
| supafrey wrote: |
Better question: Assuming you have an infinite roll and infinite amount of MEs that start staggered every day all year. Then do you call?
Second better question: How much better do you play when you have 100k chips, and everyone else at your table has 10k? Do you just play 5 times better? Or is it actually 100 times easier, all of a sudden? Is the benefit of having 1% of the chips REALLY THAT LINEAR?! |
I see your point on question 1: yes of course you make the call.
question 2: I don't really think it makes THAT much of a difference. Yes, there are big benefits to having a 10X bigger stack but how much easier is it to get to 200K from 100k than from 10k when everyone else only has 10K ?
3.5 times easier.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:28 pm GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | I see your point on question 1: yes of course you make the call. |
That means it is the right play. And everything else is irrelevant.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:56 pm GMT by KingOHearts
20%? Can someone please substantiate this number? I have been playing around with the odds calculator and I havent found a combo of 9 other hands that makes AA less than a 34% favorite.
And, I get all my chips in the middle each and every blessed time the poker gods deal me AA. Fo sho.
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:18 pm GMT by crack
112,971,936 games 4.000 secs 28,242,984 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.7025 % 18.28% 00.42% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 11.7278 % 11.72% 00.01% { KhKs }
Hand 3: 10.0598 % 09.96% 00.10% { QdQh }
Hand 4: 04.6217 % 04.30% 00.32% { JsTs }
Hand 5: 15.2083 % 14.96% 00.25% { 7d7h }
Hand 6: 09.6640 % 09.28% 00.38% { random }
Hand 7: 15.7992 % 15.73% 00.07% { 9h9s }
Hand 8: 08.9229 % 08.66% 00.26% { TcTd }
Hand 9: 01.2999 % 00.88% 00.42% { AhKd }
Hand 10: 03.9938 % 03.48% 00.51% { AsQs }
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:33 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
| crack wrote: | 112,971,936 games 4.000 secs 28,242,984 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.7025 % 18.28% 00.42% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 11.7278 % 11.72% 00.01% { KhKs }
Hand 3: 10.0598 % 09.96% 00.10% { QdQh }
Hand 4: 04.6217 % 04.30% 00.32% { JsTs }
Hand 5: 15.2083 % 14.96% 00.25% { 7d7h }
Hand 6: 09.6640 % 09.28% 00.38% { random }
Hand 7: 15.7992 % 15.73% 00.07% { 9h9s }
Hand 8: 08.9229 % 08.66% 00.26% { TcTd }
Hand 9: 01.2999 % 00.88% 00.42% { AhKd }
Hand 10: 03.9938 % 03.48% 00.51% { AsQs } |
So if we fold 99 when the whole table is all in, we're dumb too?
Posted Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:59 pm GMT by crack
99 isn't the nuts preflop and thats just a statistical blip due to the hands i put in.
If another 2 hands included a 9 things would be different. I was just demonstrating that you could get AA down to 20% win.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 12:18 am GMT by Jefecaminador
Yeah, I know what you were going for.
I was just trying to point out that just cause a play is +EV doesnt mean you should make it.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 3:35 am GMT by supafrey
| Jefecaminador wrote: | Yeah, I know what you were going for.
I was just trying to point out that just cause a play is +EV doesnt mean you should make it. |
Yes it is. Especially in this scenario.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 7:25 am GMT by UrAteUp
| supafrey wrote: | | I want to see ANYONE.. and i mean ANYONE fold in the BB of the first hand of a 10,000 person $1 tourney if they look down at AA and everyone's gone all in before them. |
Anyone who does is a fool in my book.... . I would do it at the WSOP ME too...ANYTIME.
Hell I would do it at the $50,000 HORSE in the same situation.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:50 am GMT by BMiller1980
If there are 5000 entrants and you increase your stack 10X from the starting amount you would have enough chips to be an average stack with 500 players left.
Also, you are figuring that you are up against random hands. Think about the fact that you could easily be looking at two or more people with the same hands. You could have AA vs KK vs KK vs QQ vs JJ vs AQ vs AQ...in that case you could be a 71% favorite to win. While its true you may also be up against someone else with AA. If several people are all-in before the flop, I'm going to assume they have a reasonably good hand and that there are a lot of common cards out. I'm assuming im more than 20% to win.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:53 am GMT by zinn0
| Jefecaminador wrote: | | I was just trying to point out that just cause a play is +EV doesnt mean you should make it. |
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:41 am GMT by Icec0o1
| zinn0 wrote: | | Jefecaminador wrote: | | I was just trying to point out that just cause a play is +EV doesnt mean you should make it. |
|
Only in rare cases....and this one isn't it.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 11:54 am GMT by gumbie
| wEbMaStEr wrote: |
Anyone who says 'I call" with AA when 9 ppl are all in before them doesn't understand tournament theory. |
LOL 
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 2:20 pm GMT by vyni
Lol the conditions of this scenario keep changing.
How in gods name can anyone look down at rockets, on a table thats all gone all in, and think they have a hand? In this situation, do you really think you're going to win it with a pair?
In a cash game, easy call. In a regular tourney, low buyins, sure why the heck not. In such a tourney, you're going to see kids pushing on kq, aq, etc. But this is the wsop me so you have to assume the others at the table have some idea what they are doing and there are numerous pps in play here. You might get to try again next year.... the situation, if it were to occur, is without doubt a once in a lifetime occurance. It will not occur enough to look at the 'long run' results. You're stuck dealing with the situation right here, right now, and after it's over, you're never going to see it again.
It's a very safe and wise assumption in this situation that your aces are spent: if you call, you're crossing your fingers praying for a split pot. With everyone going all in, clearly someone else is sitting on rockets as well. Even if not, for that many callers in a tourney, those remaining aces are spent. Count on that.
So lets assume 5 of the other 8 calls are sitting on various pocket pairs, and my aces are spent. I'm now playing my 0 out rockets against the cummulative outs of the pp's of other players: chances are better that this massive pot is going to be awarded to a set, which I can't get. I can hope that there pps collided too, but that can not be safely assumed.
Yes, in a tourney I need to steadily accumulate chips and taking an entire tables chips sure would be nice, but not neccesary by any means. Sure it would be sweet to take that down.... but there's considerable odds that I won't. I would fold here. 2 all in before me, I'll call. 3 all in, I'll pause but likely call. 4 or more all in before me.... I'm going to cry about doing it, but I'm probably laying them down. No need for this much heat in the first stages of a major tourney.
The more callers in this, the less likely that I'm going to be dealt another hand. In a one per year tourney the size of the wsop me, that's not acceptable. imho that is.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 3:13 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
Good man yourself vyni, finally a voice of reason in a maniac filled wilderness 
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 4:47 pm GMT by UrAteUp
I think the real question here isn't if you have the odds to call...but more of if you have the balls to make the call...  .
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 5:00 pm GMT by crack
Sigh, The fact that it's the WSOP has nothing to do with it.
It's a silly topic, it's chances of happening are so remote it doesn't even matter.
in 5 years time, on some random poker forum from some player who is starting to think about the game they will wonder if it's ever right to fold AA preflop, then come up with some crazy scenario, which is still incorect.
Then hopefully, they will realise the only time you fold AA preflop is in a Sattelite, and move on and perhaps think about something thats actually important.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 5:04 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| crack wrote: | Sigh, The fact that it's the WSOP has nothing to do with it.
It's a silly topic, it's chances of happening are so remote it doesn't even matter.
in 5 years time, on some random poker forum from some player who is starting to think about the game they will wonder if it's ever right to fold AA preflop, then come up with some crazy scenario, which is still incorect.
Then hopefully, they will realise the only time you fold AA preflop is in a Sattelite, and move on and perhaps think about something thats actually important. |
More important like....
Is the moon made out of cheese?
Are her boobs real?
Are blondes really more fun?...
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 6:25 pm GMT by supafrey
Just because vyni supported you doesn't mean you're not both entirely wrong. You're talking about the "experience" of it and how much you'll care about being bust out of it and bla bla bla...
That has nothing to do with good poker play. At all.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:39 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Well I guess I will join in on this "no one can win" arguement. No one will ever come up with a solution everyone will agree on. IMO poker is more than a game of cards. It's a game of situations. Some of the variables that make up the hand are:
Buy in
Cards
Opponents (reads, styles, abilities)
Pot Size
Current Bet
Table position
Players remaining
Bubble
Sure I may have the nuts right now.... But unfortunatley you can't bluff someone out who is already in and there are 5 cards still to come. Top pair isn't the nuts... often not even close.
I'm not about to risk all of my chips on the first hand of a big tournament. I would rather learn people's habits and get a better idea of what people have before I risk everything I've got.
Call me a wuss but I would rather put my money in when I have a better idea of the outcome.
Posted Sun Aug 13, 2006 11:44 pm GMT by supafrey
The last advice I ever give to THP:
When in doubt on how to act, check to see who's giving you the advice - then do the exact opposite. Especially if you read it here.
Bye guys.
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 12:39 am GMT by vyni
Heaven forbid anyone has an opinion or view that differs from lord supa. Think we can agree his attitude ceased to be ammusing quite some time ago.
Earlier today, Geno fired a word of caution to him... disregarded and produced the new anti thp version of supa. In my mind, an anti thp supa calls for an anti supa thp, which is why I'm the one holding him to his position. It's going to take someone higher up the thp totem pole to reverse my position.
Note that he has not been banned. This is out of respect to him, though I doubt he'll recognize that. If he wishes to side step these measures however, I'll finish it up proper.
It's a shame, really.
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 1:02 am GMT by crack
Thats quite a contradicton there vyni.
You seem to have a gripe with the "Heaven forbid anyone has an opinion or view that differs from lord supa."
Then you go on to pseudo-ban him because he has a difference of opinion?
Or is it because he made a vaguely abusive post with regards to peoples views on poker?
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 1:12 am GMT by vyni
Is this to become the supa defense thread?
Look closer at the post crack. He's badmouthing the community because geno told him to curb the attitude? A mod passed him warning and this is his reply?
Dont mistake this as an issue with him in this thread crack. I know that you likely know this, so lets not confuse other viewers.
In retrospect, my lord supa remark in there may have been uncalled for, but no more so than the bulk of what comes from supa.
Also, before we make me the bad guy here..
I've simply volunteered to hold him to his own word.
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 1:26 am GMT by crack
I'd only defend someone if I think it is justified, but what I have seen supa say is hardly abusive.
Supa seemed to be goaded into that debacle with bobross or whatever his nick is from what I read.
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:02 am GMT by vyni
Understood.
Now, this is the last reply I'm making on the supa subject. This was an intresting thread before it turned into this, and frankly I'm not going to sit here being second guessed on this. If I'm out of line, a higher power will order its correction.
I'm not the only mod voicing concerns on supa: I've sat by watching and shaking my head of it all. Earlier this evening, supa voiced he was done posting to thp. Ok, but I figured I'ld keep an eye out because he doesnt strike me as someone who would go quietly: I'm watching for it to escalate, and here it has with the childish remark above. Exactly what reaction is to be expected here? Holding him to his own words is the graceful end of the issue.
So yes, I volunteered to be the finger on this trigger, but I'm in no way the sole supporter of the action. He says he's done with thp, so I fail to see a conflict here.
As stated before, it's a shame.
I don't like it, but you do what needs to be done and move on.
So, moving on....
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:41 am GMT by UtrechtSlim
This is a no brainer, really. It can't get any better than this. You're the best hand out there and you could double/triple/quadruple up. Think tournament. Get out to a fast start, so you can bullshit around in any hand when the blinds are still small. I guarantee you will hit a monster with marginal hands at some point and take out some stacks here and there. Btw, not saying I would never lay down AA preflop..
Posted Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:02 am GMT by Skribbles
| UtrechtSlim wrote: | | This is a no brainer, really. It can't get any better than this. You're the best hand out there and you could double/triple/quadruple up. Think tournament. Get out to a fast start, so you can bullshit around in any hand when the blinds are still small. |
You can't win a toury in the first hand... you can definitly lose it though.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:47 pm GMT by tame_deuces
If nine people are all in before me, I call without blinking with aces. Because:
a.) If I lose, I'm out of the damn weeklong boring tournament which I'm not going to win anyway and can play sidegames instead. Hooray.
Actually, if I had won a seat in a sat, I'd probably allready have sold my ticket and had been playing cash games somewhere (happily I might add) so all this is fairly hypothetical.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:15 pm GMT by shorn7
The bottom line is the math. As a 4-1 dog (and I am assuming that is near correct) getting 9-1 on your money, the call will always be +EV. All the other statements surrounding why you maybe should and shouldn't do it are all well and good, but they are purely qualitative. IF you fold in this spot, you are sacrificing EV plain and simple.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:59 pm GMT by groton
tame
Ha boring turnament
No way is it boring its the WSOP Main EVENT
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:33 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| tame_deuces wrote: | If nine people are all in before me, I call without blinking with aces. Because:
a.) If I lose, I'm out of the damn weeklong boring tournament which I'm not going to win anyway and can play sidegames instead. Hooray.
Actually, if I had won a seat in a sat, I'd probably allready have sold my ticket and had been playing cash games somewhere (happily I might add) so all this is fairly hypothetical. |
Hell Tame...lets both sell our seat next year...go take some money from the poker pros...and then head to all the titty bars and get plastered...
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:56 pm GMT by Johny
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Hell Tame...lets both sell our seat next year...go take some money from the poker pros...and then head to all the titty bars and get plastered... |
lol
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:24 pm GMT by MasterMike
| vyni wrote: | Lol the conditions of this scenario keep changing.
How in gods name can anyone look down at rockets, on a table thats all gone all in, and think they have a hand? In this situation, do you really think you're going to win it with a pair?
In a cash game, easy call. In a regular tourney, low buyins, sure why the heck not. In such a tourney, you're going to see kids pushing on kq, aq, etc. But this is the wsop me so you have to assume the others at the table have some idea what they are doing and there are numerous pps in play here. You might get to try again next year.... the situation, if it were to occur, is without doubt a once in a lifetime occurance. It will not occur enough to look at the 'long run' results. You're stuck dealing with the situation right here, right now, and after it's over, you're never going to see it again.
It's a very safe and wise assumption in this situation that your aces are spent: if you call, you're crossing your fingers praying for a split pot. With everyone going all in, clearly someone else is sitting on rockets as well. Even if not, for that many callers in a tourney, those remaining aces are spent. Count on that.
So lets assume 5 of the other 8 calls are sitting on various pocket pairs, and my aces are spent. I'm now playing my 0 out rockets against the cummulative outs of the pp's of other players: chances are better that this massive pot is going to be awarded to a set, which I can't get. I can hope that there pps collided too, but that can not be safely assumed.
Yes, in a tourney I need to steadily accumulate chips and taking an entire tables chips sure would be nice, but not neccesary by any means. Sure it would be sweet to take that down.... but there's considerable odds that I won't. I would fold here. 2 all in before me, I'll call. 3 all in, I'll pause but likely call. 4 or more all in before me.... I'm going to cry about doing it, but I'm probably laying them down. No need for this much heat in the first stages of a major tourney.
The more callers in this, the less likely that I'm going to be dealt another hand. In a one per year tourney the size of the wsop me, that's not acceptable. imho that is. |
Exactly. If everyone is all in, chances are a most of the have a hand, but there is sure to be a few duds in there.
So, now that all of the aces, most of the kings, and probably a good amount of pocket pairs are gone, you are playing with crap cards that will probably only hit the lower pocket pairs, or the shit hands people pushed in with.
Like vyni said, if there were 2-4, i would probably do it, but with more than that, i think it would be slightly completely insane.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:15 pm GMT by kingetje
If I lay down Aces preflop i'll have nightmares forever
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:57 pm GMT by shorn7
Hey King-
Is your avatar from the opening credits to Halloween? It looks like the skull that comes out of the pumpkin. Way cool...
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:36 pm GMT by suitedaces84
It's quite possible that you should fold here. But the reason isn't:
-it's the Main Event and you spent a lot of money/time to get here
-it's a tournament and tournaments are about survival
-it would suck to get busted on the first hand
At this stage of the tournament chips are almost directly proportional to cash. That is, the ICM model doesn't change things much when the money is far away, so one should play as though it was a cash game. So the fact that you are in a tournament is not relavent.
The reason folding may be correct is because your equity will probably be less than 8% if someone else the other AA. Of course, you would have plenty of equity if no one else has AA. So it's a silly question really. How often will someone else have AA? 60%? 10%? 99%? Who knows.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:20 pm GMT by Icec0o1
I'm really happy to look through this thread because I get a great picture of how people can logically come to do a silly action like folding aces preflop.
Here's my opinion: unless you're on the final table of a mtt and the difference between the cash for the next seat out and the next few ones is huge, if you lay down pocket aces preflop, you don't possess the mathematical and logical intelligence to be really good in poker.
Posted Sat Aug 19, 2006 12:28 am GMT by MasterMike
What i want someone to find out is, what the are odds of Aces winning against 5, 6, 7, 8 other random hands.
Then, see what the chances are if someone picks the hands other people are more likely to have.
Say, someone got QQ (he 'could' go all in 1st hand)
Then say someone had A Js etc.
and do that for how ever many hands they want to be called all in with.
Then we could have some statistics to see what are the chances you would get beat, and with the chance that all the aces are gone.
I know with Aces im the favorite, but if Aces against 8 other random hands are only a 25% chance to win (i know pot odds are great), then I would not feel favored because two pair, 3 of a kind, straight, flush, full house, 4 of a kind, and straight flush can beat you. Thats 6 hands that can beat you from 8 other people, which would be 48 potential hands that could beat your high pair(not a great arument given the chances of any of those cards coming out, i believe 2 pair out of just 5 cards (not the 7 total) is only 5% to get). All someone needs to do is measure the likelihood of one of those things happening/not happening to you and see mathematically how well you are off. I wouldnt be so noble and brave to just take pure stats preflop and do that.
If i had saved 10k for a long while just to get beat in the 1st hand to prove my manhood taking the odds, i wouldnt. Call me a bad poker player but i wouldnt be that brave and go out doing "the right thing".
If it was 4 or less, i would, maybe even 5, but im not going to do more.
EDIT: Now that i think about it, if i was actually there in that situation, i may call with 5 or more, i could see myself calling, but just for the sake of argument, i wouldnt.
Posted Sat Aug 19, 2006 12:51 am GMT by suitedaces84
| vyni wrote: | | Now, this is the last reply I'm making on the supa subject. This was an intresting thread before it turned into this the supa thread |
Actually, I just got the the supa part of it and found it much more interesting than early part, which was pretty stupid and uninteresting.
I can see where supa is coming from too. He generally has a good point and is right about stuff. He gets annoyed when the obvious things he says are ignored (see this thread) and I can't blame him. Sure he's cocky and thinks he's better than he is; but if you didn't think you were better than you were it wouldn't be poker.
Anyway, this is an internet message board. You guys are making a really big deal of something very small, IMO.
Posted Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:08 am GMT by kingetje
| shorn7 wrote: | Hey King-
Is your avatar from the opening credits to Halloween? It looks like the skull that comes out of the pumpkin. Way cool... |
its actually a skull from the inlay of this Cypress Hill album
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