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Variance right?



Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 4:43 am GMT by hawkonzen
I just lost 150$ a friend owed me on 100$NL @ stars in a some hands that i usually win with, and win big..

I realize i didn't have the bankroll to play this limit, but I've been playing it for so long and just cashed out 500$ because i needed the money so i figured i could beat the tables, got smacked down hard Laughing

Anyway, in 3 hands all the cash were gone, first hand is AA and i re-raise in the BB from 5$ to 15$.. player calls, i raise on a 3 9 K rainbow flop, player goes all-in, i fold.. he showed a set of nines.

then follows an hour and half with trash hands, pick up a few blinds and cut off a few limpers..

77 mid pos, raise to 3$, button, SB and BB calls, flop 567 rainbow.. it's checked around to me, i bet the pot, button folds, SB folds and BB re-raises, i smell a straight so i re-raise to see where i'm at and hopes to hit a full house . Turn is a 3, he bets the pot, i get out..

the very next hand i am dealt TT in early pos, so i just call, button raises, the much feared SB calls, so does the BB, i call. flop is 8 Spade 9 Spade T Club, it's checked around to me, so i bet the pot trying to make players surrender it early, button folds but i get re-raised ALL-IN from the SB, and then the BB calls to! i don't understand what the f* is going on, but i realize the BB has hit the straight, and the SB was definetly on a flush draw so i consider my pot odds, and come to the conclusion it will be a correct call since i only have 22.5 $ left in my stack, the pot for me to win is well over 100$ and it's roughly 24% chance for me to hit a full house on the next two cards. Even more considering the two T's that will give me quads.

This is just a downswing for me, right?
Do you see anything seriously wrong with my play in these hands?

any suggestions welcome


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Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 8:12 am GMT by shorn7
I like the plays on hands 1 and three. Not so sure on hand 2. I would have just called the check-raise and not re-raised there unless the guy had a small stack. You have top set and position, so it is OK to slowplay a little (and it might save you $$ if you are behind). The 3 wouldn't scare me off as it really doesn't change your psotion that much (as he would have to hold a naked 4 with all that action on the flop for you to NOW be beaten and not have been beaten on the flop...not likely).

So, I would have called his turn bet and seen the river.

Otherwise, the other two hands were played well and you just were unlucky.



Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 8:23 am GMT by UrAteUp
Hand 1: Without him showing that he had 99 I might have made his all-in raise. Good laydown on your part. I don't think I could have done it.

Hand 2: I agree with shorn here. Call and see what the next card brings. He could have raised you on a straight draw and might not have actually made it yet.

The other hand you mention, the 1010 hand. I think I might have made a crying call on this hand and pray that board paired.

This is why I don't play the higher stakes like these. I know I have a weakness hoping to hit the miracle card when given the odds to call. Most times we all know it won't happen.



Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 8:44 am GMT by hawkonzen
i agree that i played the second hand weird.. i guess i just felt i was way behind, and with a pot sized bet and only one card to come i couldn't make myself call, remember i played without a bankroll at all.. Embarassed


Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:35 am GMT by shorn7
Yes and this is a good example of why you shouldn't play a game without an adequate bankroll. The decisions at the table should not ever be made thinking "can my bankroll afford to make this call/bet/raise?".


Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:51 pm GMT by Jauron
Those are some pretty sick boards to hit trips on.

One question, you limped early with 10's, why not just bring it in for the standard raise?



Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:59 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
UrAteUp wrote:
Hand 1: Without him showing that he had 99 I might have made his all-in raise. Good laydown on your part. I don't think I could have done it.

I'd probably call too unless I missed something and the stacks are very deep or you know the player to be really TAG.

That would be way too hard for me to lay down, I think. What's to say he's not on AK?

Though he showed you 99 and props on the nice laydown.



Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:16 pm GMT by hawkonzen
he was one of those grinders, you know what i'm talking about ?
they sit there, play the good hands, know when they're ahead and usually does a good job extracting money from people who just joined the table etc.

What's TAG?

AK never entered my mind. he raised, got re-raised big and took a while to call.. i think he would have called quicker with AK.. it was 70$ to call the all-in.

I limped because i like playing them that way, if i get raised, i call, and not many people believe i have a PP if i do my acting Smile 10-10 isn't usually a hand that pays off for me either.

It was stupid playing without a bankroll but i never have much patience for the lower limits, there's so many callers and they never seem to fold. Are there any tricks?



Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:18 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
TAG = Tight Agressive.


Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:21 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
hawkonzen wrote:
It was stupid playing without a bankroll but i never have much patience for the lower limits, there's so many callers and they never seem to fold. Are there any tricks?

Smaller stakes are simply easier. "So many callers" is perfect for you, that's exactly what you want. There is a large quantity of bad or unknowledgable players at the lower tables and playing solid ABC poker is usually very profitable. In addition to this, your hard decisions like you had with the AA hand are very reduced. At lower stakes you make the call with AA (not only because of the money-out-of-bankroll issue but) because a large percentage of the time you have your opponent beat and thus the excellent oppourtunity to stack him.






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