Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 5:56 am GMT by kainARGH
Question:
your utg+2 playing a NL cash game with 1 limper in front of you. You have AKo and raise to 6x the bb ....which is just about standard raising at this table. A relatively tight yet slightly 'odd' player re-raises to roughly 70% of your stack. We are not exactly deep stacked here. to be precise blinds 1$ 1$ and you made it 6$ and villan raised to 23$. you have 32 more dollars after the 6$ raise from you. BB calls the 23$ cold ( i really need to give these tables up )
do you fold, push or call and why?
Before anyone posts, no I wasn't AK guy and you can probably imagine who i am, my hand and the river card. Just trying to understand villans reasoning better and wondering if pot odds allow AK to call....of course the push is better imo.
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Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:20 am GMT by UrAteUp
Kain you must be the "slightly odd fellow"....  . If I know Odd is a strong player then I might lay this hand down. If I think odd is trying to pull a fast one then I push and pray.
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 8:22 am GMT by shorn7
I push here, marginally over folding (calling is stupid). You are getting over 2-1 on the play and the only hand that you are really dead too is AA (since you are only a 70/30 dog to KK). The BB flat calling tells you he doesn't have AA or KK, so you are most likely a coin flip to him, so the only real player to worry about is "odd". So, the key is what range of hands do you put him on?
Here is a sample simulation (pretty conservative for "odd") where he would only re-raise with premiums. AK has 30% equity against the two players:
Random Hold'em Simulation Results (600,000 trials)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AK 29.48% 153,749 47,033
(BB) QQ-99 38.83% 229,544 7,593
(Odd) AA-TT,AK,AQ, 31.69% 164,317 52,390
So, while you aren't getting exactly the odds you need, they are pretty close. If you expand "odds" hand selection for a re-raise to include 99 and AJ, you add 2% to your equity.
The bottom line is your read on "odd". I think pushing and folding in this spot are very close to 0 EV.
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:47 am GMT by Jauron
With no good reads on the players involved I fold AK nearly every time in a cash game with this setup.
BUT...I know plenty of people who would call or push with it. I don't value AK as much with a huge raise after I reraised and a player smooth calling both raises after he limped.
I have played AKs to this type of setup before but in those cases I was pretty sure I up against a small pair and a weaker Ace or two small/med pairs and I felt like gambling. In that case I did in fact push preflop, I'm not putting 70% of my stack in the pot and just seeing the flop.
In the last case I can remember I was wrong, one player did have a small pair, the other had AA, but that got cracked when I donked my way to a flush.
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:00 am GMT by TxShadow
Fold. If the BB hadn't called, I would usually fold (sometimes I push). If the guy is a tight player, you're either coin-flipping with him or are in bad shape already. What's the point?
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:23 am GMT by Skribbles
Fold.
Unless you can be sure that he is pushing a weaker ace, why bother??? You're either dominated vs AA or KK. Or you are a slight dog to a smaller pair. Plenty of better places to get your money in.
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 12:41 pm GMT by groton
im pushing since Old Guy is a sneaky player 
he has Pocket Jacks
bb has AK or worst
so its a coinflip for me 
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:23 pm GMT by Skribbles
| groton wrote: | im pushing since Old Guy is a sneaky player
he has Pocket Jacks
bb has AK or worst
so its a coinflip for me |
If the BB is willing to call the $23 cold, he is prolly going to call your push.
And if your thinking is right, that BB has AK, you are not getting a coinflip. You are a big dog.
AK vs AK vs JJ isn't pretty for the AK guys. You're looking at 4 outs to SPLIT the pot.
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:31 pm GMT by ScanX
push !
need to gamble a bit sometimes when it's not too expensive :) (+ u might be ahead)
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 4:37 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
Ace/King suited and you arent willing to push preflop? Cards dont get to much better then that.
Posted Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:03 pm GMT by efram
| Quote: | | Ace/King suited and you arent willing to push preflop? Cards dont get to much better then that. |
Just because one has AKs doesn't necessitate and auto push pre-flop.
I think given the action, we're a coin flip at best and dominated vs AA at worst. In a cash game, unless I have good reads, I think I fold AK most of the time here.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:42 am GMT by kainARGH
yes i was the 'odd' person.....not to dog on myself but im sure people are confused by my playstyle.
I just wanted to see if anyone here considered folding...or if the fact this was a cash game meant gaaaaaaaaaaaaaambol to the majority.
and for fun,
| groton wrote: | im pushing since Old Guy is a sneaky player
he has Pocket Jacks
bb has AK or worst
so its a coinflip for me |
ding ding ding 
I had JJ
AK guy smooth calls which I thought was funny, even more so then BB calling 23$ cold ( he was total donk called anything preflop, so hes got anything from 22-AA or j9s-aks ).
Flop comes down 3 5 Q
BB check
AKo guy pushes.
i re-raise
BB folds
heads up.
turn blank
river card won't let me leave the table up for the night and happy for the week and i would have left the table an danced a jig in the parking lot that I beat the short bus poker table.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:03 am GMT by UrAteUp
| Quote: | | i would have left the table an danced a jig |
...classic!!!
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:13 pm GMT by groton
yah my grandfather plays jacks the same way
alot of the olderpro's try to make the jacks look like kings or aces so people will laydown there AQ/AK
by the way BB probaly had something like J10 or a mediam pair
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