All in with JJ, what do you think |
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Posted Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:35 am GMT by jeffonline
Playing in the later stages of a tourney and had just changed seats, on the second hand I was in the big blind. I had $4,000 worth of chips after posting the blind, the blinds were $500-$1000.
I was dealt pocket J’s.
The player under gun was the short stack and went all in $2500.
Player 2 folded
Player 3 was the chip leader and called the $2500.
Player 4 called $2500
Player 5 folded
Player 6 folded
Player 7small blind folded.
The action was on me; I did not have a read on any of the 3 players left so I had to make a decision based on my limited experience. I thought the player to my left was short stacked and possibly in with a reasonable hand certainly better than average possibly KQ, A9, 77, The chip leader had a hand obviously good enough to call the desperate short stack and hopefully knock him out, wasn’t going to cost him a lot compared to his stack, the 4th player could have been a mixture of the two, I put him on a draw, thought he was hoping to catch some cards with the pot offering $6500 for $2500 at a time when you have to accumulate chips. The blinds were soon to increase. I had $1000 in the pot $4000 behind the line and pocket J’s.
What do you do.
I could fold and still have a few rounds left and hope to catch some cards.
I could call and hope to catch 1 of the 2 jacks left in pack
I could call and then fold if I didn’t improve because there would be no way I could have moved the chip leader with a bluff considering the pot odds and my short stack I would be all but pot committed and would have to go all in.
Or I could go all in and hope that every one folded and the short stack did not improve his hand. I could still catch one of those other J’s if need be.
The decision was!
I went all in
Player 3 the chip leader called.
Player 4 folded.
Cards were turned over
Under the gun player 1 had A7
Player 3 chip leader AA
The flop came Q75, turn 4, and river 9.
$14,500 pot to player 3 the chip leader.
My Question is how would you have played this hand.
Do you think I should have played it more conservatively?
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Posted Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:41 am GMT by LeafsFan1122
Absolutely not.
All in. You have 4 BBs and are not going to see anything prettier than JJ.
Push every single time.
Posted Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:45 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| LeafsFan1122 wrote: | Absolutely not.
All in. You have 4 BBs and are not going to see anything prettier than JJ.
Push every single time. |
^^^ +1
Posted Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:00 am GMT by Loonbat
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | LeafsFan1122 wrote: | Absolutely not.
All in. You have 4 BBs and are not going to see anything prettier than JJ.
Push every single time. |
^^^ +1 |
+1.5 (somedays I'm a half-wit)
Posted Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:56 pm GMT by Jauron
You are pretty much assured you won't find better before you are blinded off. It goes in every single time, even if two healthy stacks push ahead of me I don't think I can let it go.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:43 am GMT by shorn7
Chance to triple up with an M of 3? Hmmmm....I would have beaten everyone in the pot! :D
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:53 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Don't give it a second thought, you were just unlucky to run into AA. Most times you'll see hands like AJo, medium PP, etc. - some chip leaders will even call with any suited Ace it seems. Not worth risking it to wait, having to go All-in with A4o or something. Best spot to get your money in is here, whether you get called by 3 people with AA, KK, QQ or 1 person with A5s you made the right move.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:40 am GMT by Dat_Dude
| DaveB wrote: |
Fold preflop.
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Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:10 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Seriously, I fold here pre flop. How often do you expect JJ to hold up against 3 other players?
4th all-in into the pot with JJ is suicide.
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:17 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
| 1988 TR wrote: |
4th all-in into the pot with JJ is suicide. |
I actually agree with you. If 3 others are in the pot, there is a good chance that there is a Q, K, and A spread out between all their hands. The chances of one of those overs hitting is good enough that you are playing this hand pretty much for set value.
The only problem here is your M is crazy low, and you are pretty much forced to push preflop within the next few hands, so why not get it in with ANY pocket pair.
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:02 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| Dat_Dude wrote: | | 1988 TR wrote: |
4th all-in into the pot with JJ is suicide. |
I actually agree with you. If 3 others are in the pot, there is a good chance that there is a Q, K, and A spread out between all their hands. The chances of one of those overs hitting is good enough that you are playing this hand pretty much for set value.
The only problem here is your M is crazy low, and you are pretty much forced to push preflop within the next few hands, so why not get it in with ANY pocket pair. |
That is what I was thinking - Very good chance you need to catch the 2 outer. If you are not beat already, you still need to dodge so many bullets on the community cards.
I'm ok with getting in with any pair, just not against that many opponents. If I were a little shorter stacked I would call - He still had 4k in chips even afer posting the blind.
Part of it is that I think JJ is such a sucker hand.... Here was a fold I made of it last night - Not sure how many people would make this lay down at a 6 person table.
Full Tilt Poker Game #925925522: Table Wild Wave (6 max) - $5/$10 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:02:49 ET - 2006/08/23
Seat 1: Come2getMe ($1,431.70)
Seat 2: 2BOO2BOO ($985), is sitting out
Seat 3: loloSniFFmySacK ($957)
Seat 4: AAAAQ ($3,844.15)
Seat 5: caressmedown ($1,024)
Seat 6: baboking ($687.50)
Come2getMe posts the small blind of $5
loloSniFFmySacK posts the big blind of $10
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AAAAQ  
AAAAQ: 
AAAAQ raises to $35
caressmedown calls $35
baboking folds
Come2getMe folds
loloSniFFmySacK raises to $145
RodCPA (Observer): just lost 1/2 my chips to AK with 55 when he hit a straight LOL
RodCPA (Observer): still in it
AAAAQ: saw that
AAAAQ has 15 seconds left to act
AAAAQ folds
RodCPA (Observer): yea, had to call, good odds, but figures
RodCPA (Observer): LOL
caressmedown folds
Uncalled bet of $110 returned to loloSniFFmySacK
AAAAQ: Ill fold JJ for you son
loloSniFFmySacK mucks
loloSniFFmySacK wins the pot ($110)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $110 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Come2getMe (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: 2BOO2BOO is sitting out
Seat 3: loloSniFFmySacK (big blind) collected ($110), mucked
Seat 4: AAAAQ folded before the Flop
Seat 5: caressmedown folded before the Flop
Seat 6: baboking (button) didn't bet (folded)
I hate facing that kind of raise with JJ. If you are going to call $145 pre flop, you better be pretty committed to the hand. If an A or K flops, I need to fold to any kind of bet. If all under cards flop, then what? Still don't feel that great about the hand due to the pre flop re-raise and if he was playing an under card to my Jacks, maybe he just flopped a set?? Just a hand where you have no idea where you are at & are very much at risk of losing $1k. I would rather fold & wait for a better spot.
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:09 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Hey, I haven't posted so much in a while.... I like the feature where it turns my cards into pictures. Well done!
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:32 am GMT by Phil14312
Why not call the extra $110 and try to hit your set...assuming his hand is as good as you think it is, you are probably going to get his whole stack.
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:06 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Phil14312 wrote: | | Why not call the extra $110 and try to hit your set...assuming his hand is as good as you think it is, you are probably going to get his whole stack. |
If he had more in his stack and we were sure we could get it all, this would be a profitable play.
With him only having about $850 behind, even if we could get it all, it's marginally profitable at best.
But the difference in the two hands is, one is in a deep stacked cash game. The other is in an extremely short-stacked freeze-out, in which the other players could be pushing with hands as weak as AT, KJ, and underpairs. There, I wouldn't say folding Jacks is horrible, but with 4 BB's left, I think there's a very compelling argument for calling.
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:53 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| Phil14312 wrote: | | Why not call the extra $110 and try to hit your set...assuming his hand is as good as you think it is, you are probably going to get his whole stack. |
What are the odds of flopping a set? I can't remember for the life of me.... But assuming I could get all his chips (That is a huge assumption), I still don't think I'm getting the right odds.
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:54 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: |
But the difference in the two hands is, one is in a deep stacked cash game. The other is in an extremely short-stacked freeze-out, in which the other players could be pushing with hands as weak as AT, KJ, and underpairs. There, I wouldn't say folding Jacks is horrible, but with 4 BB's left, I think there's a very compelling argument for calling. |
Agreed, I would never say playing the jacks is terrible. Hell, I might even make the play. If I did call, I wouldn't be expecting to win... Just hoping.
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:27 pm GMT by vyni
Flopping a set with a pp: a bit shy of 11%.
JJ also has about a 43% chance of seeing 0 overcards on that flop. A call here would mean you have a little over a 50% chance after the flop of getting them to fold to a push/big bet at that time (assuming they're not on a higher pp, or flopped 2 pair/set). JJ is an ugly one to play down through the river even if no overcards hit the flop.
Even if they called the post flop bet, you're still looking at fairly decent odds. I can't stand JJ though either, because it's just such a risky hand that leaves you unsure how to act with it. If you are going to play them, the bet should be large just to shut the hand down.
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:06 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| vyni wrote: | Flopping a set with a pp: a bit shy of 11%.
JJ also has about a 43% chance of seeing 0 overcards on that flop. A call here would mean you have a little over a 50% chance after the flop of getting them to fold to a push/big bet at that time (assuming they're not on a higher pp, or flopped 2 pair/set). JJ is an ugly one to play down through the river even if no overcards hit the flop.
Even if they called the post flop bet, you're still looking at fairly decent odds. I can't stand JJ though either, because it's just such a risky hand that leaves you unsure how to act with it. If you are going to play them, the bet should be large just to shut the hand down. |
Thanks for the numbers!
If I thought the J's were good pre flop, I would have pushed. If I raise to 35, get a caller, & then face a re-raise to 145, I know I am in some trouble. I was up a lot at the table (I had about 4k at the time, bought in for 1000 and then another 800 when I lost to set over set on the flop), was only in the hand for 35, so I guess I just wasn't in the mood to gamble - It felt like KK or AA so I got out of town.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:16 am GMT by UrAteUp
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: |
But the difference in the two hands is, one is in a deep stacked cash game. The other is in an extremely short-stacked freeze-out, in which the other players could be pushing with hands as weak as AT, KJ, and underpairs. There, I wouldn't say folding Jacks is horrible, but with 4 BB's left, I think there's a very compelling argument for calling. |
One of the smartest things I read from you DC... . I think this is the biggest reasoning behind pushing or calling a raise with JJ. If it is in a tournament setting your probably better off to get rid of it. Too many bigger cards that can come out and cripple you or put you out all together. Best to lay it down and wait for a better chance. OP had a few more rounds before the blinds would have over come him.
In a cash game I feel there is set value to be had here but it is a marginal call at best to that large of a raise. I wouldn't make it at the micro levels and I damn sure wouldn't make it at the TR1988 levels...call me chicken shit... . Had everyone called my original raise (if I was TR in this case) or re-raised only slightly then yeah I would make the call and hope for the set.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:41 pm GMT by Phil14312
| 1988 TR wrote: | | vyni wrote: | Flopping a set with a pp: a bit shy of 11%.
JJ also has about a 43% chance of seeing 0 overcards on that flop. A call here would mean you have a little over a 50% chance after the flop of getting them to fold to a push/big bet at that time (assuming they're not on a higher pp, or flopped 2 pair/set). JJ is an ugly one to play down through the river even if no overcards hit the flop.
Even if they called the post flop bet, you're still looking at fairly decent odds. I can't stand JJ though either, because it's just such a risky hand that leaves you unsure how to act with it. If you are going to play them, the bet should be large just to shut the hand down. |
Thanks for the numbers!
If I thought the J's were good pre flop, I would have pushed. If I raise to 35, get a caller, & then face a re-raise to 145, I know I am in some trouble. I was up a lot at the table (I had about 4k at the time, bought in for 1000 and then another 800 when I lost to set over set on the flop), was only in the hand for 35, so I guess I just wasn't in the mood to gamble - It felt like KK or AA so I got out of town. |
The reason I call with a pocket pair here is because you put them on KK or AA. With only 800 back, I would assume you could be able to get most of his stack here.
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:15 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| Phil14312 wrote: |
The reason I call with a pocket pair here is because you put them on KK or AA. With only 800 back, I would assume you could be able to get most of his stack here. |
You ever just feel like you were beat? I felt like that on this hand. hard to explain sometimes....
I was in cheap, not looking to gamble & let it go.
I'm sure I've called or pushed on exactly similar circumstances, so I can see merits in both plays.
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 pm GMT by Phil14312
| 1988 TR wrote: | | Phil14312 wrote: |
The reason I call with a pocket pair here is because you put them on KK or AA. With only 800 back, I would assume you could be able to get most of his stack here. |
You ever just feel like you were beat? I felt like that on this hand. hard to explain sometimes....
I was in cheap, not looking to gamble & let it go.
I'm sure I've called or pushed on exactly similar circumstances, so I can see merits in both plays. |
I'm not saying folding is wrong...I was just trying to get into why you thought folding was right and not calling. NL cash is my worst game...so I'm just trying to get better.
Posted Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:46 pm GMT by mrcfkane
the current pot is 9k, you have 4k, your m is less then 4, the pot can potentionally get you 23k (19k profit), and you have jacks....i see no other choice but to move all in
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