This decision is probably obvious... |
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Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:20 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
...but I want opinions anyway. $10 freezout on AP. Blinds are 40/80. We're nowhere near the bubble.
Stage #475453271 Tourney ID 1177120 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $80 - 2006-08-18 01:10:33 (ET)
Table: 5 (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 1 - ROBINGG ($1145 in chips)
Seat 2 - POKER592 ($1840 in chips)
Seat 3 - REDERED ($2060 in chips)
Seat 4 - SEANNJ ($1355 in chips)
Seat 5 - STFLET ($4445 in chips)
Seat 6 - PAPAGRANDE ($3210 in chips)
Seat 7 - FOLD_EM7 ($5400 in chips)
Seat 8 - BRETT DURBIN ($1150 in chips)
Seat 9 - STV1977 ($3925 in chips)
STFLET - Posts small blind $40
PAPAGRANDE - Posts big blind $80
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SEANNJ A 5
FOLD_EM7 - Folds
BRETT DURBIN - Folds
STV1977 - Calls $80
ROBINGG - Calls $80
POKER592 - Calls $80
REDERED - Folds
SEANNJ - Calls $80
STFLET - Calls $40
PAPAGRANDE - Checks
*** FLOP *** 9 Q T
STFLET - Bets $240
PAPAGRANDE - Calls $240
STV1977 - Calls $240
ROBINGG - Calls $240
POKER592 - Calls $240
SEANNJ - ???
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Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:24 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Edit - It's tired and I'm dumb, I'll repost when I'm not falling asleep lol
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:32 am GMT by Jauron
I don't think a call is any more automatic than this... however we are probably only going to get to see one card before action gets crazy.
I'm wondering if a push is better for us, my guess is we get at least 2 callers. I'd be suprised if someone didn't have the straight already and you might be up against at least one set. If I am willing to call any bet on the turn I would normally just push it in and hope for lots of action and of course a heart that is not the 10. If I'm feeling passive I probably call knowing I get one card to hit before I have to fold.
You could get a lot of chips here, curious what others think.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:45 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I'm not opposed to going all-in right here.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 2:16 am GMT by Johny
I push.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:45 am GMT by UrAteUp
I call here...my reason for calling is simple, while the odds are decent that another will hit the board, there is no hand there yet. This is also a two fold situation. If you do hit a heart on the next hand then you can probably keep two or three of these monkeys in the hand and rape them for more chips. A push here most likely will only get a call from a hand that can beat you at this time. If you do not improve your out. If you do improve you can suck in a bigger pot.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:53 am GMT by shorn7
I think I push too, but a call isn't totally out of the question. I would hope we all agree that a fold IS out of the question.
I push for a number of reasons: You represent a very strong hand while everyone else is calling which looks like they are drawing, so there is a decent amount of fold equity in the move and anyone who calls you may just be on a heart draw as well and with the exception of the str8 flush, you win. Also, you may have as many as 12 outs to win with your overcard. Finally, with an M right around 10, you need to begin getting aggressive to try and build a stack for the later stages. This is a golden opportunity to either double or triple up or go home and play another tourny.
Why I favor a push over the call is that if you hit your hand, you might only get action from a smaller flush and you can't be sure there will be one out there. Also, your stack is getting smaller so that if you call and miss, you will be below an M of 10. I would rather push now instead of waiting and hoping that I get a better opportunity to double through.
Just my two cents.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:50 am GMT by Dat_Dude
I also favor a push here for the same reasons as shorn stated. You certainly don't have the best hand right now, but if you do call and a heart hits you will get no action. And what if a heart doesn't come on the turn? Are you going to lay it down then? I doubt it, so push and pray baby!
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:52 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
The results
I'll post my thought process when I have more time. Most of it has been mentioned in the various posts already. Thanks guys.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:59 am GMT by tame_deuces
I think I'd just raise smallish and hope to get some more money into the pot from people that don't have me toasted too and then call a push.
I don't think we have fold equity at all on this board with that many players in.
Obviously we're not folding this hand at any point, and we're drawing to the nuts - therefore we don't have to shut people out of the pot for any reason whatsoever (the ones with draws that can beat us, sets - aren't folding anyway), so the only thing that matters is to get as much money from other people into the pot as possible.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:39 am GMT by JewishPete
I would probably call figuring I'm up against TPTK, nuts, and a few other random hands. A set would have raised here, and I believe something with top two would have raised as well to thin the field.
I only call here because the Implied odds here are huge, any heart is giving you the absolute nuts unless someone is playing a strange set with the T spiking. I'm not a big fan of a push here, since this hand would not be too hard to get rid of if action gets crazy on the turn. Spiking the heart and not seeing a paired board is going to be a guaranteed huge payoff. You know you are up against some hands here that aren't going away if you spike your nuts, and I just dont see the value in pushing when the hand is not hard to fold if and when we miss.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 11:22 am GMT by Phil14312
The heart will slow your action with this many players unless someone has a smaller flush. I don't think you have any fold equity, so I like a min-raise her to get everyone to call, then put your stack in on the turn. You can't fold anyone out, and you aren't going to fold yourself, might as well make it a monster pot if you win.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 11:46 am GMT by shorn7
My fold equity comment was a "limiting the field" one. I agree that there is no way everyne folds. But, the less people you have to beat, the better.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:54 pm GMT by Loonbat
I call here for a few reasons:
There is no way going all-in will win me the pot right off with that many callers.
I'm getting proper odds for a call.
If I hit on the turn, I want more monkeys to play with (versus 1 or two which the all-in will likely generate.
I may see the river fairly cheaply if the turn is a scare card (puts a 4 str8 on the board).
There are a couple stacks who can call my all-in without being fully crippled.
It's still a draw!!
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:01 pm GMT by Skribbles
Just call.
1) Odds are somebody is slowplaying something (set). Obviously the results say different, but lets ignore those. Everyone knows that in a $10 MTT there are plenty of donks. One of these 5 players will pay you off if you hit.
2) You are on the button. If you hit on the turn, there will most likely be a bet in front of you which will allow you to a: push after that or b: if it checks around your bet is going to look like a "button steal" and someone will look you up.
3) You are definitly getting called by pushing here. I prefer not to risk a tourny on a draw... especially with position in this hand.
Had there been 2 players or less in front of you, I would favor a push more, but still like a call. Again, a push is definitly getting called here so why risk it.
If the turn blanks, you are either getting a free river (doubtful) or you at least get to see what it would cost to see a river.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:22 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Folding was never much of an option after the flop, for a couple of reasons. First, I was a little short. Not desperately so, but I was at half average in the bottom 1/4 of the field. Second, with a speculative hand like this, I couldn't have gotten much better of a flop. Passive play is awful now, otherwise I should simply fold preflop. Once all the action came, there was no doubt that all my chips would be in somehow.
So, I'm taking this hand to the felt. The real question was, "What's the best way to get there?"
| UrAteUp wrote: | | If you do hit a heart on the next hand then you can probably keep two or three of these monkeys in the hand and rape them for more chips. |
| JewishPete wrote: | | Spiking the heart and not seeing a paired board is going to be a guaranteed huge payoff. |
I tend to agree with the others that if a heart falls on the turn, there aren't going to be a lot of people tripping over each other to get their chips in. I think simply calling lets these people off the hook, because a lot of them are going to fold on the turn without contributing another cent.
| tame_deuces wrote: | | I think I'd just raise smallish and hope to get some more money into the pot from people that don't have me toasted too and then call a push. |
| Phil14312 wrote: | | I don't think you have any fold equity, so I like a min-raise her to get everyone to call, then put your stack in on the turn. You can't fold anyone out, and you aren't going to fold yourself, might as well make it a monster pot if you win. |
This is certainly the way I would go if I had the chance to do it over again. If I kill a kitten on the flop, I may end up with the same amount in the middle and still get callers on a turn push.
| shorn7 wrote: | | My fold equity comment was a "limiting the field" one. I agree that there is no way everyne folds. But, the less people you have to beat, the better. |
This may have been in the back of my mind when I pushed, but in retrospect, I think this is one of those instances where the number of hands remaining in the pot is irrelevant. My total equity simply doesn't change that much. Worst case scenario is facing a set, since they'll have redraws even if I get there. Second is two-pair: same reason, fewer outs. Distant third on the threat meter is the straight. Most, if not all, of these hands are calling my push, so the only hands I'm driving out are those "single pair, with or without a draw" hands that I'm trailing, but that don't scare me. Oddly enough, those were the only two that called.
| Skribbles wrote: | | 3) You are definitly getting called by pushing here. I prefer not to risk a tourny on a draw... especially with position in this hand. |
I felt this was the spot to either "go big or go home."
Thanks for the insights everyone. This was very helpful for me.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:23 pm GMT by TheSalche
Push here is good.
Lots of dead money in the pot, which makes you more likely to be called (possibly by mutiple people), you have the nut draw, theres a straight draw out there that may call the all-in as well. Depending on what calls your ace may be a live out as well.
Gambling here and possibly building a stack will help you get a lot further in the tournament.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:54 pm GMT by vyni
I'ld call here: there's too many involved to just steal this pot with a push. First to act threw out a standard continuation bet: those 4 callers ahead of you tells me they're likely on straight/flush draws as well. If a heart drops on the turn, you're going to see some fold, but its safe to say there's still going to be some chips being thrown around. In fact if anyone else is on a flush draw here, a heart on the turn would be awesome.
With that many callers, I'ld have been concerned if anyone else here is on the flush draw too: their hearts are reducing my probability of hitting my flush: even if not a single one held a heart, I'm looking at <35% to hit my flush. Tournament play here, not a cash game. Pot odds are less a concern.
To say a min raise or even a call here would mean I wouldn't fold on action after the turn.... no. If a non-heart jack fell, I'ld be folding to any aggressive bet. My odds of a flush would have fallen to <20% at best. Your late position here gives you the oppurtunity to make that decision when the time comes.
I see it in tourneys a lot: players pushing on flush draws. Later in a tourney yes, but early in a tourney.... we have the time to make a wiser decision and pick better hands to move with. If there weren't so many involved at this point and I wasnt a shorter stack, maybe a push to steal but not on this one.
imho of course. I'm not a fan of the push and pray. lol
Now I'm going to go look at how it ended...
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 2:36 pm GMT by golddog
I like the call here too because the only hand you're going to win with is the nut flush, which you don't have yet (with that much action, I'm putting someone on two pair, AQ, AJ, flopped straight). In other words, even if you hit an Ace, is it likely to hold up? (although it would've in this case, let's not be results-oriented).
So, since that's the flush is the hand you're going to win with, and it's the nut flush, I guess you want to keep people around.
If the board was a little more ragged, then I like the push better. Something where you're not likely to be way, way behind.
Posted Fri Aug 18, 2006 2:59 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
FWIW, at no point did I ever think my fold equity was higher than 0%. My flop play was strictly for value. I just ran a 4-handed simulation with my A5 against a set, a straight, and two-pair. In my "nightmare" scenario, I'm still 27% to win the pot:
| pokerstove wrote: | 1,771,200 games 0.891 secs 1,987,878 games/sec
Board: Qh Tc 9h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.9995 % 27.00% 00.00% { Ah5h }
Hand 2: 43.9434 % 43.94% 00.00% { KJs, KJo }
Hand 3: 21.2967 % 21.28% 00.01% { QQ, TT-99 }
Hand 4: 07.7603 % 07.75% 00.01% { QTs-Q9s, T9s, QTo-Q9o, T9o } |
Now I figured my equity was no worse than ~30% since I figured I could be up against a couple of these hands, but not likely all of them. I had already mostly discounted a set since QQ and TT probably raise preflop. 99 in the SB is a possibility, but I couldn't put anyone else on that hand given the passive play on the flop. I also wasn't expecting an A to help. I figured I had 9 clean outs.
I think the play is pretty clearly +EV in terms of TC. As for tournament survival considerations, as I mentioned earlier, I was already in the bottom quarter of the field. I certainly could've folded preflop and waited for a bigger hand, but once I decided to play it, I hate to do it passively. Additionally, opportunities to triple or quadruple a stack don't come along that often.
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