Flopped a set - step by step |
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Posted Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:06 am GMT by efram
PokerStars Game #5984302839: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/08/20 - 05:42:20 (ET)
Table 'Rupertwildt' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: bigshot241 ($63.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Efram ($64.70 in chips)
bigshot241: posts small blind $0.10
Efram: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Efram  
bigshot241: calls $0.15
Efram: raises $0.75 to $1
bigshot241: calls $0.75
*** FLOP ***   
bigshot241: bets $2.25
Efram -?
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Posted Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:29 am GMT by kingetje
Wow, this is pretty tricky. you were the preflop raiser so he could have anything here, a pair of aces with a diam ond, or even a fliopped flush hoping you give action cause you were the agressor. I'd raise to $6 or so
Posted Sun Aug 20, 2006 10:29 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Yeh, no way to find out where you are unless you raise. If he re-raises or pushes or something, he's probably either got you beat or has a ton of outs to do so. If he simply calls, you'll still need to be careful as he could be trapping. Your preflop was pretty big, he simply called it (meaning he likely doesn't have AA) so you're likely looking at Ax, possibly Axd in which case you're drawing to a paired board. As mentioned, throw out a raise and see where you're at.
Posted Sun Aug 20, 2006 12:21 pm GMT by efram
My thoughts were he doesn't have a flush, because the size of the bet.
I figure he's got Ax possibly 1d and I have the best hand here. Next step I think its clearly a bet, but how much, or do you check behind and keep the pot small?
PokerStars Game #5984302839: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/08/20 - 05:42:20 (ET)
Table 'Rupertwildt' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: bigshot241 ($63.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Efram ($64.70 in chips)
bigshot241: posts small blind $0.10
Efram: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Efram
Efram said, "copying me"
bigshot241: calls $0.15
Efram: raises $0.75 to $1
bigshot241: calls $0.75
*** FLOP ***
bigshot241: bets $2.25
Efram: raises $2.75 to $5
bigshot241: calls $2.75
*** TURN *** 
bigshot241: checks
Efram ?
Posted Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:08 pm GMT by UrAteUp
He didn't push so he is either slow playing a made flush or doesn't have you beat. I would make it a 1/2 pot bet and see where that gets you. Very interested on how this plays out.
Posted Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:20 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I like the flop min-raise. I'd bet about 1/2 - 3/4 pot on the turn.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:33 am GMT by efram
Ok, so I bet $5.25 into a 12 $ pot and he smooth called. Now an A comes on the river. Gives me a boat. Pot is at $23.
Do you bet, how much?
PokerStars Game #5984302839: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/08/20 - 05:42:20 (ET)
Table 'Rupertwildt' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: bigshot241 ($63.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Efram ($64.70 in chips)
bigshot241: posts small blind $0.10
Efram: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Efram
bigshot241: calls $0.15
Efram: raises $0.75 to $1
bigshot241: calls $0.75
*** FLOP ***
bigshot241: bets $2.25
Efram: raises $2.75 to $5
bigshot241: calls $2.75
*** TURN ***
bigshot241: checks
Efram: bets $5.25
bigshot241: calls $5.25
*** RIVER *** 
bigshot241: checks
Efram ?
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:03 am GMT by Oasis
I'd bet around $10-$15.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:39 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I'd actually be more inclined to make an oversized bet on the river. He made two huge calls on that board, which tells me he has something. He he has a higher full house, quads, or a straight flush (the latter of which is so unlikely since he's need 52s), you're destined to get stacked anyway, but if he has a straight, two diamonds, or an ace, he's almost certain to get stacked. If he has nothing (the K of diamonds, etc), he probably won't call any bet at all. So I'd just get in as much cash as you can.
I would probably bet an amount between $25 and all your chips. A big bet probably has the highest EV here.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:53 am GMT by Oasis
Hmm, i'd wanna get paid off in this situation so would make a bet designed for a call...
Perhaps the big bet you suggest could look like a steal?
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:15 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Oasis wrote: | Hmm, i'd wanna get paid off in this situation so would make a bet designed for a call...
Perhaps the big bet you suggest could look like a steal? |
No; the point is that for you to get paid off at all, he has to have a big hand. So why not get as much as you absolutely can with it?
Let's look at some numbers.
There's $22.50 in the pot.
Say you think there's a 75% chance he'll call a $10 bet, a 50% chance he'll call a $20 bet, and a 25% chance he'll call a $50 bet (basically all-in).
If you bet $10, your EV = (0.75)(10) + 22.5, or 75% times the amount of the pot plus his bet. That's = to $30
If you bet $20, EV = (0.5)(20) + 22.5 = $32.50
If you bet $50, EV = (0.25)(50) + 22.5 = $35
So we actually stand to make more on average with the $50 bet if we estimate his chances of calling as above. The numbers may be slightly different, but hopefully this illustrates my point well enough.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:17 am GMT by Oasis
Ok good point, noted. :D
Cheers
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:30 am GMT by shorn7
Definitely overbet here as Daimond has said. Even if he will only call the overbet 50% of the time, the EV of that is higher than a weenine bet that will call 100% of the time. Always look to maximize your expected value on each hand.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:50 pm GMT by efram
ok, good words which is why I posted. I learn so much from you guys.
I really felt I had the best hand and he was slow playing Trip Aces or a flush.
I wanted a call so I bet about 2/3s of the pot and he min raised me.
Now what? Do you fold your full house here, call or push the rest in?
PokerStars Game #5984302839: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/08/20 - 05:42:20 (ET)
Table 'Rupertwildt' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: bigshot241 ($63.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Efram ($64.70 in chips)
bigshot241: posts small blind $0.10
Efram: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Efram
Efram said, "copying me"
bigshot241: calls $0.15
Efram: raises $0.75 to $1
bigshot241: calls $0.75
*** FLOP ***
bigshot241: bets $2.25
Efram: raises $2.75 to $5
bigshot241: calls $2.75
*** TURN ***
bigshot241: checks
Efram: bets $5.25
bigshot241: calls $5.25
*** RIVER ***
bigshot241: checks
Efram: bets $15.25
bigshot241: raises $15.25 to $30.50
Efram-?
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:04 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Push the rest in. Like I said, if you got coolered that's just bad luck, but you have to go in with a full house when it seems so utterly likely he has a flush.
Of hands that beat you...
5  2 : Unlikely he would call that pre-flop raise.
AA: Likely would have reraised preflop, and only one possible combination left, so unlikely.
44: Probably the most likely hand that beats you, but I still doubt he would have this exact hand instead of any one of the possible flushes.
66: Even if he has the 6 , he's unlikely to call on that flop.
A3, A4, or A6: Possible, but also unlikely in my mind. I would think he would either raise or fold the turn with a hand like this depending on his read, but it's hard to say at $25 NL.
With any of those hands, I find it very odd that he would check the river, just in case you checked behind. With a full house or better he's going to want to get paid, and most players do not check-raise the near-nuts on the river.
Far more likely is a hand like A7-A9 (I figure AT+ would have open raised pre-flop), or any one of possible flush combinations, especially those including the K or Q . With the nut flush, he may have wanted to suck you in when you raised on the flop only to get outdrawn on the river.
I'd estimate there's a 10% chance maximum that you're beat here.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:48 pm GMT by UrAteUp
He either has a set or a flush but I do not think he has anything better. Make the call and close your eyes as you do. Then go back and read the HH to see what he lost to you with... 
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:23 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Push all-in every day of the week. If he has a hand that beats you, there was no way you were not losing your stack here. In the long run you will make a lot money in this situation from people who slow-played a flopped flush or think they're Ax hand is gold.
Posted Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:32 am GMT by efram
I called, fearing Aces full.
he had it. rivered again.
Here's the entire hand as it played out.
Looking back at this I can see the 2 pair and filled up on the river is almost obvious, except for his checking of the nuts on the river. That threw me.
PokerStars Game #5984302839: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/08/20 - 05:42:20 (ET)
Table 'Rupertwildt' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: bigshot241 ($63.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Efram ($64.70 in chips)
bigshot241: posts small blind $0.10
Efram: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Efram
bigshot241: calls $0.15
Efram: raises $0.75 to $1
bigshot241: calls $0.75
*** FLOP ***
bigshot241: bets $2.25
Efram: raises $2.75 to $5
bigshot241: calls $2.75
*** TURN ***
bigshot241: checks
Efram: bets $5.25
bigshot241: calls $5.25
*** RIVER ***
bigshot241: checks
Efram: bets $15.25
bigshot241: raises $15.25 to $30.50
Efram said, "man, if you have Aces full I quit poker for ever"
Efram: calls $15.25
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bigshot241: shows   (a full house, Aces full of Fours)
Efram: mucks hand
bigshot241 collected $82.50 from pot
Efram said, "nh"
bigshot241 said, "lol"
bigshot241 said, "ty"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $83.50 | Rake $1
Board
Seat 2: bigshot241 (small blind) showed and won ($82.50) with a full house, Aces full of Fours
Seat 3: Efram (button) (big blind) mucked
Posted Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:34 am GMT by ki_cz
Dammit!!! I wish I would've posted, that's what I was thinking ...
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