Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:59 am GMT by chadderton
Hey guys...
I finished my third custom Poker table last week and so on the weekend I had my friends come over to play a tournament with nine players. We increased the blinds every 45 minutes, and all in all it was a pleasure for everybody, I guess.
Well... I don't want to complain, but if I remember correctly I took down only TWO POTS all night (one being an all-in with bullets, and one being a semi-bluff). I had about three winning hands ALL NIGHT. And this includes rabbit hunting or watching the flop even when I folded before. So, one can say I didn't have the amount of luck necessary to win this thing - I finished in 8th place. 
What I'm trying to ask you... did you ever have that feeling that you just can't win? I mean... I was sitting there the first couple of hours... getting literally NOTHING. Since I was playing really tight, I was probably lasting much longer than I would have if I was playing more aggressively. I only saw like three or four showdowns. Because when there are eight other players at the table, it's pretty unlikely you get away with a bluff, especially if they're playing loose.
I was really getting mad when I was seeing friends having one nut flush after another, showing boats and straights at the showdown. It was unreal... the best hand I had that night was a full house - which was of course beaten by the bigger one.
Sorry for complaining... I just wanted to know if some people out here are with me.
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Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:26 am GMT by mindgame
It's called "variance."
In common parlance "Sh*t happens." It's always a lot more fun when it's happening to someone else.
I once had a four and a half month steak--not making this up--where I failed to flop a set to my pair. Started to keep track of how many pocket pairs I was getting and the numbers were right around 7-8%: just about right. But four bloody months of live poker, 6-8 hour visits to the cardroom two or three times a week. I started to muck them unless they were 10's or higher--and I was still missing the flop. I would have thought it was impossible to miss that many.
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:40 am GMT by Dave B
Hey mindgame, that reminds me of one of my trips to Vegas. I went over 30 hours of play without flopping a set.
I then hit 4/5 the last night to win over 1k at 10/20 in a few hours. They started calling me "set man"-how ironic.
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:26 pm GMT by mindgame
Yeah, that’s weird, but I’m glad to hear your pendulum swung back. You feel as though you “deserve” to have a string of sets hit. That’s one of the biggest misconceptions about probability: that if you have flipped 18 heads in a row, somehow the odds of the next flip being a head are down. They are not. It’s always going to be 50/50. While it’s true that, the more flips you make, the closer your observed frequency will approach the theoretical outcome, that does NOT mean that if you have a series of independent events occur in an unusual pattern it follows that another, offsetting series of events are likely to occur.
The probability of hitting that set is about 1 in 7, and nothing can change that if the game is straight. You miss for four months and the odds of hitting the next one are always the same. I started getting freaked out about it though. When I finally hit a little set I just KNEW it wasn’t going to hold up. I was SURE someone was going to outdraw the damn thing and I had to force myself to bet it. (It did hold up, btw. God I love sets: "Set man" would be a wonderful nickname.)
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 1:09 pm GMT by MasterMike
I know exactly what you mean. In one tourney i was with my friends a few weeks ago, my first hand was AK and i lost to pocket 9s. So i wait a while, pick up K J twice, and couldnt make anything of it.
I only played about 5 hands, and out of all the hands i folded/played. I got 2 pair and a straight, pocket 10s (i folded preflop, had a read, good thing i didnt play since the guy had pocket aces), and then i made a pair of threes.
It was absolutely sick.
And, finally last night, i sucked out for what appeard to be the first time ever when i was all in and was losing preflop/post flop.
I had a 7 and pushed, the guy had q 10. Flop is like 10 5 7.
Then turn is like K, then river is another 7.
Later that night, a guy goes all in (all he could do was raise 2Xbb so as BB i called with 10 5.
He had K Q suited. Flop q 10 5, then 4, then another 5.
It was sick, but i guess those two times getting extremely lucky for the first time i remember, evens out a lot of bad luck i had before it.
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 2:11 pm GMT by MJJ
Other thing is it hurts more when it's live, especially if you are the host.
If I have a bad run at a SNG online, no big deal I probably have another going and I can just join as many more as I would like.
I also host tourneys at my house- anywhere from 20 to 50 guys per time and i have won some of them and been 1st out of others. The worst is to get knocked out but have to stick around and run the tourney for everyone else, but it's part of the deal when you host.
Last tourney we had 20 players and DaveB was out 1st (2 pair flopped vs set) another strong player was 2nd (set vs set) and I was 3rd out (AK lost to A9, all in preflop.) None of those beats can get you down, they are all hands you should love to play in the situation- you just won't win w/ any hand 100% of the time. You just have to suck it up and know you got yur chips in when you should have...
Posted Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:40 pm GMT by mindgame
That whole hosting thing...
You just CAN'T go out in the first half hour---the humilation alone is bad enough, and then you are stuck for the duration. Of course when you win there's the unspoken feeling that you've set everyone up.
I LOVE that.
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