Math Imbeciles Need Not Apply |
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Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:52 pm GMT by rlb2252
How much mental math dexterity does it take to be a winning player? I was an English major in school, excelled in all things literary. Went to a liberal arts college, even
I can’t remember taking a single math class as an undergrad.
I’m reading Small Stakes Hold ‘Em by Skalansky et al. So now I find myself bombarded with equations. Numbers, numbers everywhere. Odds for this and odds for that. Am I suppose to calculate all this stuff in my head, on the spot, with that dreaded pop up: “You have 15 seconds to act” blinking on and off on my monitor?
Or are most of the calculations you need to play poker simply repeats, the same things over and over again, equations that can be mostly committed to memory and dusted off when needed?
(Or scribbled on your arm like the answers to the Algebra test in tenth grade.)
So the question again: Does a mathematics imbecile stand a chance at poker?
Although I’m willing to do whatever it takes to increase my chances of winning at this game, I honestly dread the thought of using much arithmetic to get there.
I guess I simply thought you looked at your hole cards, looked at the board, looked at your opponent and simply tried to determine by common sense, gut instinct, the smell of his sweat—whether or not you had him beat. Then played your hand accordingly.
What’s wrong with that simplified view of the world? Can it work?
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Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:03 pm GMT by mindgame
Some facility in basic arithmetic is a very big plus. By that I mean you must be able to add, subtract, multiply and divide in your head--and quickly. Any bright 6th grader has that ability. Mathematics is hardly required.
Posted Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:45 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
If you memorize certain numbers and can calculate odds (roughly) on the spot, you'll be much better off.
| Quote: | | I guess I simply thought you looked at your hole cards, looked at the board, looked at your opponent and simply tried to determine by common sense, gut instinct, the smell of his sweat—whether or not you had him beat. Then played your hand accordingly. |
Yeah, but the other 99% of the time a little odds-based reasoning is a lot more likely to make you a winning player. Mostly because of things like, "how much should I bet such that it's incorrect for him to draw?" or "I might be beat, but what kind of price am I getting on this call versus the chances I'm wrong?"
| Quote: | | Does a mathematics imbecile stand a chance at poker? |
I doubt you're that much of an imbecile that you couldn't make the adjustments needed for this game. If you're capable to making change, you're capable of doing the math needed for Poker.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:08 am GMT by shorn7
Remedial math is fine for limit holdem and the odds you need to know do come up over and over. NL is a different beast though and I think that more detailed math is required for that game. So, if your plan is to play only small staked limit, basic math should be fine.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:23 am GMT by Dave B
You can win at poker without being strong at math, but to be great, you need to be excellent at another portion of your game.
For example, hand to hand is fine, but lets say you are in a tournament w/ 5 big blinds left and someone raises min and you have A9 on the button. What are the odds that 1) you have the best hand based on the player in the hand and the blinds and 2) what are the odds that you will see a hand better than A9 in the next (x) hands?
If you wait and lose your blinds, will how much will you need to get back to be even? IE, if you are 65/35 underdog (A9 vs read of A face) and you better off pushing here and risking your stack as a dog or seeing your blinds go away and lose 35% of your chips and then hoping to move in as a favorite?
2nd example, on the bubble as a big stack. 2nd biggest hand (VERY tight player) moves all in and you have the nut flush draw. Do you have positive expected value based on the other chip stacks? Are you health enough to still finish 2nd if you lose and almost a sure 1st if you win?
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:38 am GMT by UrAteUp
Math is important in poker but you don't have to be a math wiz. Conditioning of your brain can give you the ability to look at a situation in poker and make the right moves. Along with the math you also have to have good instincts as you mentioned. It is a combination of these and the ability to read players that will help make you a winning poker player. My suggestion would be to read and learn all you can about the game.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:56 am GMT by mindgame
I'd much, much rather be up against a math wiz than a fine instinctive player. The former is predictable. The latter can be unbeatable.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:09 am GMT by tame_deuces
A person isn't much of a math wiz at poker if he plays predictable.
my $0.02
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:28 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| tame_deuces wrote: | A person isn't much of a math wiz at poker if he plays predictable.
my $0.02 |
Game Theory for teh confuse.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:35 pm GMT by rlb2252
Great! Eight responses and several geometrically opposed points of view. Maybe that’s to be expected when there isn’t necessarily a black and white answer.
In many ways these different opinions confirm something I already felt. That every poker player, in his or her own way, is consciously or subconsciously calculating odds. The question is whether those odds need to be translated into actual mathematic equations to be useful.
Example: An extremely tight player has proven to hold monsters six out of the last seven times he’s taken it to the showdown. In each of the previous cases he’s capped the betting on each street. Just like he’s doing now.
Hmmm! Do I need to convert my common sense read into actual numbers, my feeling based on past history that this player is likely holding a monster hand and unless I have the nuts that perhaps I shouldn’t go head to head with him?
Yes, there’s math here. Yes, there’s an evaluation of odds here. But it’s all beneath the surface. It never rises to the level of actual concrete arithmetic. I don’t have to see a written equation in my head to conclude the likely results of my actions.
Or do I?
That was one example, an extreme one perhaps but one we all run into.
I assume, in my limited poker experience, that there are situations where the use of actual hard core calculation are the best choice. This likely occurs most frequently in situations that are not so black and white.
Example: You have a Queen high flush draw on the turn against a new-to-you player who might have just about anything. What should you do, hotshot? Huh? what should you do?
Seems like a quick time out is warranted here, while you quickly count ones and twos and threes on your little fingers. You’re counting outs. You’re evaluating the pot size. You’re counting the number of players remaining. Position. How fast he’s tapped the raise button. Everything. And sticking it all in some big pot of number’s stew and churning it around with your mental spoon.
It would seem there’s too much going on here, too many details to work yourself out of this situation without actual specific calculations.
As mentioned in a previous post, I don’t so much want to avoid math but simply to assess its importance.
I know from experience that keeping the ole mental circuits sharp is critical to many things in life, not just poker.
I’m in my forties and I am already shocked by the degradation in my ability to work simple time tables in my head. Use it or lose it, I guess. But who would have ever thought you could slip on things that were so forcefully drilled into your head throughout your elementary education.
Mathematics, say trying to quickly add up the price of the groceries in your cart at the super market, is a great exercise of mental acuity.
I was never good at math, but if it gives me a poker edge and keeps my brain synapses firing, I won’t complain.
Not too much, anyway.
Posted Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:48 pm GMT by mindgame
Check this thread out, it may be helpful:
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t18323/bet-analyst?highlight=#148901
Posted Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:24 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Man, oh Man, did this post hit home. Welcome to the Forum, by the way.
From your post it seems that I'm running about one year ahead of you in poker playing (and ten years ahead in age). And, yes, that 8x7 and 8x6 calculation is getting harder and harder to hang on to!!!
Sklansky, Miller, and Malmuth is terrific for getting an understanding of the theory of low limit poker (and I suspect as a foundation for poker in general, though I'm still playing low limit ring games and haven't tested this in the wider universe). But my head started to hurt when they started talking about fractional outs and so forth. I've been playing steady winning poker for over a year (with the exception of one disasterous month) and have found the 2% rule of thumb to be perfectly adequate. I can see my two cards, there are fifty unknown cards, so each card has a 2% chance of appearing anywhere a card can appear. If I want to know about the A there is a 4% chance the guy to my left has it, a 10% chance it will appear on the board, etc. I don't adjust my 2% after the flop for the fact that there are now only 47 cards instead of 50 (ouch--my head hurts at the prospect).
With this technique the SM&M approach becomes quite tractable and, as UrAteUp pointed out, many, many situations start to become automatic. Also, the non-quantitative factors you mention start to fit into place. Sure, there's a 4% chance the guy to the left has A but if he starts betting like it (by, say, check raising you on the river) then you revise your estimate.
Threats on the board are spottable (except I keep failing to see straight draws that develop in the middle of the range) and I've been doing well enough by scaling back and/or calling down if I've got solid cards but there is a threat out there. I don't try to do the math. Ouch.
Edit (6/27/06): Having said all of the above, Howard Lederer said that the best players were the ones that could correctly incorporate the most factors into their decision-making. Shortcutting the math probably falls short of this standard, but for beginners and geezers I think it is a decent starting point. By the way, I heartily recommend catching his Learn From the Poker Pros TV show. Some great info comes out of there.
Good luck.
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