How are you NOT laying down AQ here?? |
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Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:54 am GMT by JewishPete
Bodog 10+1 STT.
Their hand history is uncopyable (if thats a word) so I have to do this the hard way.
Villain 1 is UTG with 500, Villain 2 is to my right with 1k, I am on button with 1k.
Blinds 10/20
UTG Raises 5x BB, all fold to Villain 2 who calls, I call for pot odds with A  10
Flop comes: A  10 J
UTG Bets 200, Villain re raises and I push all in. UTG Villain folds. I wanted to take it down right there knowing these people can be playing any 2 cards and figured against weak opponents I would not be able to lay down Two pair on this board.
Villain 2 shows AQ and catches a Q on the turn, and I don't improve on the river.
My Question is, even at low limits, should'nt villain have been able to lay down AQ here? In his position I could not be able to call realizing that any reasonable hand here has me beat.
AK has him crushed, AJ has two pair, as does AT here. What hands is he really ahead of that he's making this call??
Wouldn't this be an easy laydown?
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Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:31 am GMT by UrAteUp
AQ might lay it down but I would have been more worried about KQ here. Personally I would probably, as villian most likely did, put you on a push to try to get them out of a pot. They probably had you figured as playing an Ax hand asnd trying to scare them. I am sure villian was crapping his pants when he saw the A10 and was hollering for K,Q or another J to hit the board.
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:54 pm GMT by Skribbles
AQ isn't the worst you are going to see in this situation. I've seen people calling pushes w/ Ax, QJ, QT etc....
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:02 pm GMT by Ryan231
Well from what I can see its not such a bad call...
Pot preflop = 300+blinds = 330, UTG bets 200 and MP raises(how much?), we'll assume that he min raises to 400. so now the pot is 930 at least, you move all-in for 1000 which makes the pot 1930 and the call to the MP guy is 600. Hes getting a little better than 3:1 with top pair with a Q kicker here. Now lets assume that hes a great player and feels like he is beat maybe 75% of the time here (can't always assume his hand is bad in this spot, many times it will be good in low limit SnGs). He can hit any K,J,Q to beat your 2 pair which gives him 10 outs (3 Qs, 3 Js, and 4 Ks). Just using the 2/4 rule we can see that he has roughly a 40%~ chance to win IF he is losing to 2 pair in this spot.
A lot of the time the AQ is good here I feel, after he re-raises the flop hes really commited to this pot, I don't know what he raised but this is like a worst-case scenario. If he raised more on the flop he is surely stuck in the hand and is going all the way.
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:51 pm GMT by Johny
I agree with Ryan.
Also, why would you want him to fold?
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:22 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Play long enough & nothing will surprise you. AQ is a fair enough hand there. He has top pair, good kicker, and a gut shot. If he is beat, at least he has outs & he is thinking there is a reasonable chance of having the best hand.
I had a hand last night in a cash game where the Flop came    . The pot is $80 and I go all in with a pair and a four flush. The guy calls his last $250 with   . Let us be clear about this - he called with 2 overcards on the board, a flush draw out there, and was hoping to hit a gut shot straight that wasn't a spade.
Ask me again why you don't understand the AQ call? lol
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:39 pm GMT by JewishPete
Very interesting input here.
My only disagreement is that on the board, Had I been the one holding AQ, I really can't think of anything that I was ahead of.
Are we pretty much agreeing that Villain was calling knowing he had to draw??
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 pm GMT by Ryan231
| JewishPete wrote: | Very interesting input here.
My only disagreement is that on the board, Had I been the one holding AQ, I really can't think of anything that I was ahead of.
Are we pretty much agreeing that Villain was calling knowing he had to draw?? |
Can't say I agree with this. If we are deepstacked in a large MTT and its early sure I'll fold my AQ, but in this spot I can't say I'm folding AQ in this spot. You could be moving with so many hands, Ax, 98s, Q9s, etc
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:40 pm GMT by JewishPete
I can't agree there. I had been notoriously tight, and even had I not, no one is going to be pushing Q9, 98, etc with a raise, re raise in a multiway pot.
There really isnt (IMO) anything I am ahead of holding AQ there. I apreciate the input though, because I really was scratching my head on this hand
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:58 pm GMT by Sharpy
I wouldn;t have called with A 10 in the first place... you had enough chips that you didn;t enev have to bother with that hand....and you cant get mad at AQ for taken you out.. when he had you absoluty dominated preflop. and like someone said earlier.. he was 3:1... so why no call...and at a 10$ SnG you hafta to expect bad calls...(like your a 10 call).. sorry.
when you are ealry in a tourney like that... forget pot odds and wait for premium hands.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:06 am GMT by flafishy
I would not have played AT, either. Bad beat, but you really shouldn't have been in the hand in the first place. It would be OK in a cash game, when you can theoretically play long enough to have the pot odds work out. But there's much more to solid tournament strategy than just blindly calling because you have pot odds. That's only one consideration and should have much less impact on your decision-making in a tournament, especially early on.
How did you figure you had correct pot odds, anyway, calling with AT? I'm not so sure you were any more correct with that call than he was with his AQ call.
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