How Would You Play this Set? |
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Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:29 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Seat 1: bigpops3 ($67.60 in chips)
Seat 2: jaytruly ($36.35 in chips)
Seat 3: patoman ($39.45 in chips)
Seat 4: hoosier317 ($17.85 in chips)
Seat 5: Turn_Prophet ($99.30 in chips)
Seat 6: JAMESIV ($19.70 in chips)
Turn_Prophet: posts small blind $0.25
JAMESIV: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Turn_Prophet  
bigpops3: calls $0.50
jaytruly: folds
patoman: folds
hoosier317: folds
Turn_Prophet: raises $1.50 to $2
JAMESIV: folds
bigpops3: calls $1.50
*** FLOP ***   
Turn_Prophet: bets $3
bigpops3: raises $3 to $6
Turn_Prophet: ?????
I will post the turn action later, as it's quite interesting.
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Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:59 pm GMT by aaronw
hmmm... very interseting.... I would say raise to approximately $20. (You guys think this is too big / too small?) This should give you a pretty good idea of where you are at. I think the only hand we should be worried about here is 89. I am sure he would have raise with AK, QQ, TT.
Also, do you have any reads on the player? Is he aggressive/tight/passive etc?
Let me guess that the turn was a K, right? 
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:01 pm GMT by Jauron
I think I smooth call here and lead out on the turn so long as no K or A come. If he pops you back it's probably bad news. The big reason I don't pop him back is it's heads up and if you mini raise back or bet decent he might think your stuck with a hand and make a big move and your forced to fold. You hate to give the free card that might fill him up but I try to keep the pot smallish and pray for the board to pair so I can go broke legit.
While it's hard to give him AK, he could have K9 or 89 and I wouldn't completly rule out QQ but thats pretty sick. If you had position on him I'd probably reraise but I just don't want to get myself stuck if an Ace or King come off on the turn or he moves in on me.
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:26 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
And now for the turn.
Turn_Prophet: raises $7 to $13
bigpops3: calls $7
*** TURN *** 
Turn_Prophet: bets $16
bigpops3: raises $36.60 to $52.60 and is all-in
Turn_Prophet: ?????
I realize the reraise on the flop was pretty small, but I had my reasons for this I'll explain in another post.
Posted Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:20 pm GMT by aaronw
That certainly isn't the best card for your hand. If my math is right, there is $83 in the pot and $36.60 to call. You are getting ~ 2.3:1 on your money. Wow, I can't get over how ugly that turn is for you. I don't like to say this, but you MAY have to fold here... I don't think there are many hands that you can beat that he would be pushing all-in with. So, what was your reason for the small flop raise? Anyway, let us know how it turned out. What did you do?
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:23 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I posted the outcome of this hand in my blog along with my thoughts, and anyone who wants to see it can read it here.
I won't spoil it by posting it in this thread. By all means, keep discussing. I always enjoy getting input from fellow TH-Pers.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:36 am GMT by UrAteUp
Either villian came into the pot with AK ( I often limp from EP with AK when I know some wild man will raise later...  ...it helps to disguse my hand), villian has the low end of a straight, a set or even perhaps just two pair. I doubt he would be going gang busters here with TPTK but you never know.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:35 am GMT by wEbMaStEr
God, you get yourself into some situations! lol
I'll look at your blog in a minute but i want to try figure this out first.
This is a hell of a hand and i'm having serious trouble putting villian on a hand here. It's 6 handed so would he limp utg with a monster? I can't see it so right away with his limp/call preflop i'm putting him on a mid pp (this could be a serious problem now that we know the flop came TJQ)
With the flop of TJQ, you bet and he re-raises, why? He has to assume that if you raised pre then you caught at least part of a high flop like that. Is he testing the water, trying to push you off a hand like AJ perhaps?
What does he have? at this point it could be anything, I'm favouring 99, possibly 88, TT, AT, TJ, JQ, TQ, QK I'm discounting AA, KK, QQ, AK, because of no raise preflop and 89, K9, because that would just be stupid lucky.
I like your reraise on the flop, It's enough to let him know you have a hand and should remove him if he has AT, 88 His call says, I have a hand too, or I'm going to draw to the nuts, 99, TT, QK, QJ, QT, TJ
The turn 8 is a potential disaster if he has the one hand of the 6 hands
i put him on, I like your lead out bet, again it says I have a big hand here, his reraise scares the f*ck out of me! 99 omfg! what a stupidly lucky 8 on the turn!
If you're beat here you still have 12 outs to fill your boat or tie with a 9. Using aaronw's maths, you are getting 2.3/1 to call, and are 3/1 behind.
I'm making that call i reckon.
Edit: I just read what happened 
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:54 am GMT by shorn7
I don't think you can fold here. If he really held a 9, why would he push? My bet is that he has two pair or top pair/draw (KQ), and you are good. Even if you are behind, the pot odds demand that you call his bet since you will fill up or get quads close to 23% of the time and I think the chance that you are ahead gets you the extra 7% in equity to make this at worst a 0 EV call.
I just read the blog. Good read by you and well played. Interesting move on his part that I can't blame him for, although his stack wasn't quite big enough to get you to fold. Interesting hand.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:29 am GMT by MrDarling
for some reason I feel he sits with AA. and got too attached to it.
It is a scary flop and I like the rerais on the flop. I don't like his call.
I think I push again on the turn, and will probably call - you still got few outs if you're beaten.
Am heading to your blog now.
Though from the remarks, I can already see you beat him.
Posted Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:37 pm GMT by MasterMike
I really doubts he has AK, and actually i would be more afraid of pocket queens. But since he seemed so intent on raising you out of the pot, i doubt he has anything to beat you with, at this point.
Posted Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:26 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| shorn7 wrote: | | If he really held a 9, why would he push? |
This is a somewhat ironic question...think about it.
Posted Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:45 pm GMT by tame_deuces
With the flop action in this hand I shove here with a 9 or AK.
Maybe I'm not here with a 9 though, but hey...if I was. 
Posted Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:29 am GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | shorn7 wrote:
If he really held a 9, why would he push?
This is a somewhat ironic question...think about it.
|
Not really. Based on his play so far, I think it is pretty unrealistic he holds one and if he did, he would likely slow down and try to get some value out of it after all of the flop action. The turn card was a scary card remember and if it were me, I would use that to my advantage to try and get diamond to bet again so I can trap for the rest of my $$.
We have to remember that a lot of the time when someone pushes all-in with cards to come, the DON"T want to get called. Not saying folks never push with the nuts...obviously they do. But, I don't view this situation as one of the times where it is likely.
Posted Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:35 am GMT by suitedaces84
The irony is as follows:
Player 1 asks why would you push if you wanted a call? And his opponent pushes strong hands because player 1 asks questions like that. So the answer to the question comes directly from the question.
I agree that calling here is best because you're nearly getting the odds and the way the hand has been played I too find it hard to believe that villian has a 9.
Posted Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:37 am GMT by TheSalche
after reading the post i was tempted to give advice but then i realized i suck at NL cash games and read your blog and realized i was way off
stud anyone?
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