Turn decision versus a moron. |
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Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:06 am GMT by red_pen
Sometimes clarity is found in the bleedin' obvious - unfortunately i can't see it here. And the hand should be understood in the following context: based on what I'd seen of the table so far, folding all but the best hands would guarantee me at worst a place on the bubble with 3rd or 4th stack.
In other words, doubling this guy up would be -ve cash EV.
Villain is as loose as insert obscene reference as you see fit here.
Early $11 STT. BB=60. Stacks are off the top of my head, but are close enough. (Me = 2400, Him = 1800)
I get K  K 
UTG+1 I make it 240 to go (there's a limper UTG who goes away pre-flop). Villain on the BB calls.
Flop is : K  J 9
Villain checks. I bet 260. This is a little less than half the pot. Villain calls.
I want him to call. I want him to call with his second pair and an inside straight draw. That's what I want. Then...
Turn is Q
Villain checks. Now what?
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Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:58 am GMT by MrDarling
with no reads its a hard decision.
Is he chasing a flush , does he have TP or MP or just Ax, can he hold the nut str8 or any str8?
Does he have slowplay built into him?
You need to bet to gether information.
so on the flop pot is around 500.
on the turn 1000
you got 1900 and he 1300.
Sadly, you now need to bet at least 750, which will live you just enough to survive. But, does that commit you to the pot? Can you and should you fold if he goes over the top?
To be totally honest , this is a scary flop for me : flush draw, str8 draw. I would bet at least the pot if not more.
If he is chasing a draw, he needs to pay to get it.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:58 pm GMT by UrAteUp
In a tournament situation I will not monkey around with big hands and give them a chance to be beat. Your now in a situation where villian could have a straight with Q10 and he could also have a flush draw. Here is where I push because I want villian out before he does suck out a good hand. Push and pray is about all you can do here. Screw giving him odds, give him a beating is what you want to do.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:30 pm GMT by Jauron
| red_pen wrote: | I want him to call. I want him to call with his second pair and an inside straight draw. That's what I want. Then...
Turn is Q
Villain checks. Now what? |
If you trust your read you know what to do, if you don't then it doesn't matter.
Posted Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:51 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
when in doubt, bet big 
edit:
alrite, well, that wasnt very helpful....yer obviously not gonna let go of this hand easily...so you need to bet a healthy amount and figure out where you stand...i'd bet a little over half of the pot to limit his odds...if he plays back, given wut you know, yer may hafta cut yer losses....altho remember that the newbs likey the bluff
random observation, the J and 9 of hearts of dead for his heart draw...and if all he has is the heart draw, you want him all in since yer ahead, even if he has the ace for a gutshot also
also, if he already has the straight w/ a ten, then you have 13 outs....3 jacks, 3 nines, 3 queens each give you a boat, a king gives you quads, and the other 3 tens give you a straight also for the split
worst case scenario is he has A T , giving you 9 outs...3 nines, 2 queens(royal beats yer boat!), 3 jacks, and the last king
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