Posted Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:15 am GMT by Incognito129
Ive been using pokerstove to analyse some hands, typically hands like AKs and others that are considered premium.
Normally someone with AKs would raise big preflop to show strength and it'll pretty much come down to maybe 2-3 callers all with the premium hands. So i compared AKs versus the other hands in Sklansky's group 1.
In heads up play it will win 45% against QQ or JJ, giving them a slight edge. Against AA or KK its completely f*ck.
In a pot with 2-3 callers, its very slightly favored over QQ JJ by 8-9%, but a huge underdog to AA or KK. So its somewhere in between but then in poker there can only be one winner.
If you run it against anything from group 2 and worse it'll win about 50% of the time in a multiway pot. Im thinking about those juicy pots with a nut flush :D
So why raise big and show strength with AKs? You obviously raise to get money in the pot cause its a good hand and they come rarely but if raising isolates only the hands that can beat you then how is this a good play?
From the numbers it looks like it is better to limp in or make a small raise mp or lp.
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Posted Sat Sep 02, 2006 1:07 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Short answer: because against many players, (1) you won't only be isolating hands that are even money or better to beat you (in fact you will dominate many of their holdings), and (2) the times that they do not hold decent hands you will collect their dead money, punishing players who loosen their early position requirements against you.
I don't like limping with AK, simply because you cannot narrow your opponents' hand range. Against a tight player, if you raise with AK and the flop comes 8-5-2 you can usually be sure you have the best hand if your opponent does not have a pair or a set.
| Quote: | | Normally someone with AKs would raise big preflop to show strength and it'll pretty much come down to maybe 2-3 callers all with the premium hands. |
There aren't usually that many "premium" hands available, and I'm not sure what a "big" preflop raise is. Even 5-6x the BB isn't that large when stacks are deep. Also, remember that opponents are half as likely to hold AA or KK when you hold AK, because now there are only 3 combinations of each instead of 6. Often times, you will get called by hands that significant underdogs to AK, like AQ and KQ (and occasionally even worse by bad players).
Also as a final note remember Sklansky's hand rankings are for Limit, not No Limit.
Posted Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:40 am GMT by Sharpy
And when you do put that raise out.. QQ JJ KK or even AA will through back a re raise. So you will no exactly where you stand.
Early today i decided to limp in with ak..middle position(dont recomend doing this..maybe first time I ever have) .. guy in later position raised about 3x BB .. Flopped rainbow 10 J Q..i checked..he bet 2/3 pot. I raised a little more then MR. He pushed all in with Q10os. Got lucky. I gotta go just flopped a set of aces :D.
Posted Tue Sep 05, 2006 12:35 am GMT by khaosanroad
I have found that most people on the lower limits are trying to be tricky and don't reraise JJ-KK, some even just smooth call AA.
Posted Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:00 am GMT by tame_deuces
I've played guys in fixed limit who doesn't play AK for a raise. They are the easiest players in the world to beat. And I'm not even kidding. 
Posted Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:29 am GMT by TheSalche
take note too if you have AK you decrease the chances of your opponents having AA or KK ... theoretically speaking
Posted Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:43 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I have found that players who call usually are holding pocket pairs.
This means that if you raise with AKs, you will usually be up against 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. Recognize that you will nearly always be about even money (or worse). What you might be overlooking is the value of taking the lead with your hand. If you raise with AK and the flop comes 27Q or 27J and you bet, how many pocket pairs are going to be able to continue? Just those three pairs probably (22, 77, QQ) and KK and AA (unlikely based on your holding). So the vast majority of the time, you are getting the better hand to fold in these spots. And when you do hit your hand, you will usually win those pots (about 1/3 of the flops).
When you raise preflop, your opponent can just as easily put you on AA as AKs. If you make a continuation bet on the flop - how does he know his pocket 6s are good? He can't. Thats the value of AK.
Posted Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:41 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Where do you guys find all these supertight opponents?
Posted Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:14 am GMT by tame_deuces
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Where do you guys find all these supertight opponents? |
I can't speak for the others, but I do have a 6.2VPIP, 2.2% preflop raise FL player on my buddylist with a 100% fold to steal % in the blinds. Someday he'll probably get KK/AA in the blinds though  .
Posted Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:18 pm GMT by Incognito129
| tame_deuces wrote: | | suitedaces84 wrote: | | Where do you guys find all these supertight opponents? |
I can't speak for the others, but I do have a 6.2VPIP, 2.2% preflop raise FL player on my buddylist with a 100% fold to steal % in the blinds. Someday he'll probably get KK/AA in the blinds though . |
6.2%?!? Your preflop raise should be like 100%.
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