Posted Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:55 pm GMT by rlb2252
Taking a Look See!
That’s what we used to call it in aviation. A small plane pilot arrives at the airport. In the hanger he peruses the weather charts. Yikes! Embedded thunder storms, lightening and severe icing along his expected route.
Faced with this dire prognosis, does our intrepid hero give it up this time, cancel, return to his car and drive home. No, he launches anyway. Why? Just to take a Look See.
Sound familiar, poker players?
In aviation, the Look-See theory suggests that one can always turn back upon encountering meteorological conditions beyond the capabilities of the pilot or the airplane. And heck, metrology is far from an exact science. Oftentimes those reports are just flat out wrong. Or prove how dynamic weather can be, so much so that one pilot can pick up a lethal load of ice at 9,000 feet while another pilot, two minutes later, finds nothing but smooth sailing at the same altitude.
You see, taking a Look-See actually works sometimes.
Unfortunately, many a farmer’s field bears witness to the potential dangers of taking a Look See—in the form of a twisted aluminum wreck smoldering among the furrows of that year’s crop of Crowder peas.
Seems that poker and aviation have much in common in this regard. You’re dealt a marginal hand, a hand common sense and every poker pundit demands that you fold, a hand accompanied by flashing lights, wailing alarms, a sign that screams: “Fool, The Bridge Is Out!." A hand that should be burned at the stake--not tomorrow, not the next day, but right now!
But do you do it? No.
You want to take a Look See.
Who knows, that flop might bring trips, or an attractive flush or straight draw. And if you can get in there on the cheap, what’s the harm of one bet?
You can always turn back (fold) if you don’t like what you see. Hell, it worked that last time. Remember? You went against conventional wisdom, defied the odds, caught a back door straight and were rewarded with a juicy pot.
But how much money do you lose by taking a Look-See? How often do you press on—like that doomed pilot into deteriorating weather—expecting that maybe, just maybe if you go a little farther, bet one more street, things will break in your favor.
Could those bets be better utilized in a hand that stood a more reasonable chance from the outset?
But you can always turn back, right? You just want to get a peek at the flop. A mere Look-See. If the flop doesn’t hit you hard—like a brick in the face—you’re out of there.
Yeah, right! Success on the flop might be worse than no success at all. Pairing up some weak card will likely make it even harder to fold, despite all indications to the contrary.
You see it’s a shotgun wedding now, you and that damn hand united in unholy matrimony. But, as anyone of the millions of unhappily betrothed will tell you, once you’re married it’s a lot more complicated to sever the entanglement. It’s a lot easier not to get married in the first place.
I suppose the same holds for cards and well as spouses. Get out before you have loot invested.
If there’s anything that any newbie poker player needs to learn it is when to fold a starting hand. I’ve come a long way in this regard. My first few sessions I was playing well over 80% of my hands. (It actually worked for awhile, too, real negative reinforcement.)
I’ve since sliced that percentage in half but still oftentimes find my preflop rates lingering in the high 30’s for full ring limit Hold’em. (Yes, I know. Still too many Look-Sees!)
I hate to think of the times I’ve sat there at the showdown, my expected draw a mere figment of my imagination, watching my chips get vacuumed in by the enemy. Thinking, why oh why did I have to take a Look-See.
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Posted Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:06 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
haha! That's good stuff right there, well written, funny and so very true
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