Online Poker Conspiracy: My Take |
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Posted Tue Sep 05, 2006 12:11 pm GMT by rlb2252
Conspiracy theories abound everywhere. The fact that these theories are plentiful, however, has no real, substantive bearing on whether or not any of them are true.
To be fair, I’m sure some conspiracy theories are true or at least contain some seeds of truth in them. The problem is picking which conspiracy and, alas, which seeds:
What’s your favorite?
Did Lee Harvey Oswald have help in assassinating John F. Kennedy? Or was the hit orchestrated by the Russians, the Cubans, the mafia? An ex-lover bearing a grudge and a high-powered rifle?
Did America really land on the moon in 1969, “…taking one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind” or were the astronauts merely broadcasting from a Hollywood studio?
Are those disc shaped apparitions floating ghost like through the night and then taking off at a high rate of speed piloted by alien life forms or are the ships simply highly advanced US technology from Area 51?
And finally we come to whether gambling enterprises such as online poker are rigged or not.
First, I don’t think any of us are in a position to definitively say one way or the other. Both positions, for and against, unfortunately, are based almost solely on instinct, gut feelings, what the little hairs on the back of our necks tell us.
Just like no credible person has come out with evidence to indict the gaming companies, no one on the other side has much to exonerate them either.
Wait, some on the “Honest Poker Company” bandwagon would say: “I’m a winning player so it must be honest.” Or, “I know several winning players so it must be honest.” “Or if someone loses, then someone else is winning.”
“Yes,” some on the conspiracy side would say, “but many of those winning are not real players, they’re simply computer bots piloted by the gaming company execs themselves.”
Insert your own Twilight Zone music here.
Here’s my take, which by the very nature of my argument makes it worth no more or less than anyone else’s: I believe that if more than two people know about anything, eventually one is going to tell.
That’s it. That’s the really the whole thing. You could apply this logic to the participants in a bank robbery, a homicide, or gossips at the office water cooler.
For some bizarre reason, it’s human nature to tell what is known. It seems to be hardwired into our very humanness. Go on, admit it. You get a little thrill when you’re first to whisper some tantalizing tidbit in the unsuspecting ear of an acquaintance, to shock them out of their socks.
But the problem with confidants is this: Just because you’re my confidant doesn’t mean that I’m yours.
Just because you’re my favorite gossip buddy, the person with whom I most enjoy sharing my deepest secrets, doesn’t mean that I’m yours. You just might be the kind who can’t wait five minutes after hanging up the phone with me—having piously pledged not to breathe a word--before hitting speed-dial to spread these rumors to your favorite someone else.
Thus the circle of those privy to the conspiracy grows exponentially.
And here’s the real kicker: Eventually one of the co-conspirators is going to get pissed at his cohorts.
Maybe he’s not pleased with his cut of the spoils. Maybe he gets a sudden touch of conscious, becomes a Born Again Christian, and must absolve himself of his past sins. Or maybe he simply wakes up on the wrong side of the bed one fine morning and decides the deceit must end.
Or maybe the wife of one of the co-conspirators catches her philandering husband playing stink finger with some Bahamian bimbo, gets enraged and scurries off to a divorce lawyer and the tabloids.
(Can you imagine the size of the book contracts that would be offered, how much for the screenplay rights, how often they’d appear on Oprah, Larry King, Fox and Friends, their fifteen minutes of fame, all for spilling the beans….?)
Or maybe someone a dozen or so steps removed from the actual conspiracy will say the wrong thing to the wrong person and the whole house of cards will begin to fall.
Poker players, this is merely variance. Things can only go right for so long before something has to go wrong.
Trust me on this, if online gaming is rigged, it’s going to come out. It’s going to come out in some definitive, irrefutable way. There’s going to be paper trails, receipts, Swiss bank accounts, safe deposit boxes and all the other accoutrements of multi-million dollar fraud.
True, just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t in the future. We could wake up tomorrow to these headlines: Online Gaming Fraud Proved Beyond A Shadow Of A Doubt!
Or maybe the headline, the breaking news story, the “This just in!” on MSNBC, might develop a week from now, or a month, or a year.
But online gaming has been around for awhile. You’d think that if fraud were rampant in the industry, if company collusion and executive conspiracy was systemic, it would have reared its ugly head by now.
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Posted Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:29 pm GMT by cheezewhiz
True or not - at least you dont have your fingers in your ears, and your head stuck in the ground. The future will bring those headlines... believe me.
Posted Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:35 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| cheezewhiz wrote: | | believe me. |
Why?
That's a serious question, by the way. Explain to me why I should believe that you have some extraordinary insight into the way things are done.
Posted Fri Sep 08, 2006 2:18 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Please refer to my posts on this topic entitled "Had enough of reading this crap". Once again let me just say...bring proof to this or any arguement if you want people to take your opinion seriously.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:15 am GMT by cheezewhiz
YES OR NO to any of you. The cards come online just like in real life , totally unknown and random - yes/no !
There, proof - without having proof. An unbiased mind already knows this.
Im baffled at how anyone that has ever played online can even argue. I think its called Self-Delusion. If you can make money online, good for you - you've adapted to play much different and wipe out Rocks with your rags. You'll get annihilated in a live game most likely. Look through your precious statistics and take out all your POS luck wins with garbage, and see just how much your good hands win you.
The flops are juiced for action.
The hands are preprogrammed to stack against each other quite a bit.
The fishies and donks are tossed a bone "by design" to keep them swimming in the pond.
House software phantom players are playing all over, cheating you.
Sharks are definitely kept around, but are limited to the amount of abuse they can inflict on the amateurs. Its all controlled for good reasons.
People do collude, in mass numbers of hundreds.
People do inflict unsuspecting players' computers with Trojan programs that read Poker room information right off their machine, while playing against them.
Insiders do play with unfair advantages.
Have you ever played "God mode" in a video game ? Imagine sitting at a table, picking a target to sting. The board has made an almost unbeatable hand for the Villian , with the exception of 1 single exact card in the deck that would make Hero a straight flush for the win. Now just imagine how fun it would be to control the outcome by determining that card to appear on the river, and wiping out that a-holes whole stack. Later on a message board, that Villian is being told... "thats poker", bad luck dude, " it happens ". "you play more hands, your gonna get more beats like that"... " so many donks at low stakes, move up".. "you WANT players like this, you'll win in the long run"... the list goes on and on.
But - this player keeps at it, and starts to recover. He's playing his best game - the bankroll is rebuilding. Finally he thinks.." YES! I will never lose playing good, I just have to grind it out long-term". The next day, he sits down ready to rape the tables, and loses 10 to 1 favorites back to back to back for 3 hours straight, and loses his whole bankroll. Then, mysteriously, a free 40 dollars is offered in his account to entice him back for some more abuse. However now, he will never EVER get off that cycle of crazy losses - because he's now flagged for milking. After 3 or 4 deposits, he hates the game and never goes back.. possibly trying some other sites - which ALL do the same thing all over again.
What you have here, is a way to get 4 times the money from the average player, instead of a one-shot deposit and no-return. (BTW, Hero isnt another real person, Hero is the "house") There is no winner to collect villians loss. Not every beat, not every time. How will you know which is which ? You wont 
This scenario happens every day, at every table , to 10,000 people. Its a pattern, its obvious, its crooked.
People are screwed every minute of every day, why would anyone endorse the POS game of online poker, in any way. I pity them.
So go ahead and say " wheres the proof ? " again so I can laugh. My mind must just work differently than yours - and wow am I Lucky for that.
Won't be long - the #@%$ will hit the fan. Enjoy the show.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 8:57 am GMT by Hurricane Ham
Wait, so...where's the proof?
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:48 am GMT by tame_deuces
You don't need proof in good conspiracy theories. They are always designed in such a fashion that the lack of proof in itself is the key element in the conspiracy theory. Then you always move the burden of proof to the 'opposition' - 'can you with say 100% for certain that this isn't so' and if then you quickly move those who answer with 100% into a category of people who are stupid because they blindingly believe what they read and are told.
Thus your theory becomes immune to criticism, your persona will look as an inquiring person who has abandoned gullibility and every argument against your standpoint will per your own logic only strengthen it.
Ofcourse any theory that is laid forward in such a manner should immediately be dismissed and the person who claims it should be ignored.
The world has moved beyond the times when demagogues and rhetorics are the people who define truth, and modern thinking dictates that the correct way of testing a theory is to check if it is wrong.
You can check if online poker is rigged, this would be exceptionally simple. All you would need to do is to collect a large sample of hand and check if the distribution of cards falls within what should be probable. Tools and methods for doing this is readily available and it shouldn't even pose a problem.
Ofcourse, give the person/people behind a good conspiracy theory the tools to test it, and it never fails that they never do so. Testing something is uninteresting when they allready now the truth right? Why attempt to prove when you _know_
Mouthed 'guesses' and talking ill of criticism as a method is uninteresting, fallible, stupid, ignorant, arrogant, oldfashioned, , lazy shows a lack of logical thinking which can only be damaging at the tables.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 11:26 am GMT by rlb2252
As I mentioned, I’m not particularly convinced of systemic fraud in the poker industry. None of us have any proof of that. If it was huge, wide spread, universal, I think we’d already have hard core, irrefutable evidence.
I suppose that one could employ the reverse argument and say that there is no proof that the industry is innocent as well. But proving a negative is difficult if not impossible.
We do know that money, historically, provides one of the most enticing incentives for wrongdoing. We know, historically as well, that avarice is not necessarily limited to a particular type of individual or group.
Businesses, once thought of as legitimate, have frequently been unmasked as bogus, corrupt, fraudulent, their executives hauled off and “duck-walked” toward a likely Federal prosecution before the assembled TV cameras.
Large, public companies are not immune from this type of greed. The recent accounting fraud debacle of Enron and others comes to mind.
But, as mentioned in my initial post, my gut tells me this kind of fraud is most likely rare. What I’d be more convinced of, though, is fraud perpetrated by poker company employees farther down the food chain. An inside job, in other words.
Suppose, for example, some mid level poker company tech was able to gain access to the locked room where the random number generator is kept.
Who knows what kind of security these RNG computers are kept under? Who knows whether the poker company defenses are elaborate or flimsy? Who knows whether the computers are housed in a secure vault more impregnable than the one Tom Cruise invaded by repelling from the ceiling in the first “Mission Impossible”?
But if some employee, authorized or not, gained access to this room, wouldn’t he be able to observe the cards being dealt in real time.
What if this corrupt employee zeroed in on the 20/40 hold’em table and kept his outside accomplice advised of who had been dealt what?
The accomplice would have the info to crush his opponents.
This would be collusion of the highest order. This would be the equivalent of all players being dealt their cards face up.
While this is all speculative, all hypothetical, does it at least sound plausible, remotely realistic? Please tell me that these companies have firewalls, counter-measures, an actual posse of security guards—something—to thwart this very thing.
Sadly, human guards can be bribed or recruited as an ally. And digital security can be by-passed or compromised, most easily be those who either designed it or maintain the program on a daily basis.
Small conspiracies, instigated by greedy or disgruntled employees is not uncommon in any industry. Most fascinating about this type of cheating is that it runs counter to many of the arguments most make—including myself—against wide spread poker company fraud.
This is not company sponsored fraud, rather, we’re talking mid level employees ripping not just the naïve poker playing public but victimizing the poker company itself.
The mid level employee could care less if the company eventually folded under the weight of lost players, civil litigation and criminal indictments.
Neither does this fraud require a bevy of participants—which would increase the likelihood of exposure. Heck, maybe this enterprising employee, armed with a lap top, could carry out this travesty completely on his own, both read the cards and participate in the game without even bothering to enlist an outside ally.
And all it would take is that one employee, that one insider to gain access to that random number generator in real time.
Am I just being paranoid or does this sound at least conceivable?
Be my guest, poke holes in my hypothesis. As a currently devout online player, I’d love to hear opposing view points. It’ll make me sleep better at night.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:34 pm GMT by mindgame
Amazing how this just won't go away, but if it leads to intelligent conversation, maybe that's okay.
Conspiracy theory seems to have it's own subculture. There are legions of people out there with their own pet conspiracies: the black ops guys, the auto/oil/energy guys, the ET guys, the list is endless. I've always thought it hillarious that some people think the CIA is pulling all the strings behind everything that happens except weather, but these putatively omnipotent souls are incapable of creating employment or getting their asses out of Baghdad in one piece.
Maybe conspiracists are just creating a healthy skepticism in the general population about life in general. That would have to be a good thing. Cheezwhiz is deeply skeptical about playing poker online and I agree with him: there's something indefinably weird about it. I can't get a fix on it except to say that I simply can't beat it. Now call me a megalomaniac, but that's damn strange. That cycle of winning, building, and busting? I could have written it. It simply isn't that way for me in live play. And the cards DO seem to fall a lot differently than they do live. Which makes some sense. The assumption we all have is that shuffling cards 4+ times assures random distribution: I've never seen any proof of that. After seeing computer generated random card distribution I'm beginning to doubt the randomness we really have in live play. (I think now that I've seen REAL random, it sucks.)
But the one argument against me and the Cheese is, I think, very, very persuasive. Online poker has enemies. I can't figure out exactly how the live casinos line up on the subject, because online gambling creates great interest in the "real deal." But governments are surely opposed--taxing authorities are in complete opposition. The one way to end it would be to prove conclusively the things that Cheese is alleging.
Are the cards "juiced?" I've made that statement myself. But are they?
Well I took a look at the hand distributions in my tracking database today and I can't see anything at all to suggest that. Admittedly I have a few less than 10,000 hands, but the distribution looked normal to me. And 10,000 is still a pretty large sample space. I was a little suprised by a few things--that I am a net winner in both tourney and ring games with AA. The losses are so painful that I would almost swear they cost me more than I make with them.
I was a net loser with KK, though. But I would guess that's because I get into some huge pots with them and stubbornly won't lay down. AK was a huge winner. AKs, a loser. Odd, but not bizarre. It seemed weird but very often the suited connectors did worse than the same connectors unsuited. AQ out preformed AQs as well. But I expect that I overplay those connectors when suited. They only have a 4% improved chance of winning a hand, but I bet them much more aggressively--and that is something my tracking software shows me quite conclusively.
But here's the clincher. There are thousands and thousands out there with my software and software like it. I have no doubt that millions of hands have been analyzed looking for the proof of things that Cheese alleges and I am very tempted to believe--because online poker has some very powerful enemies. What he's saying simply hasn't been alleged by powerful people in a positon to want it to be true. They would rush forward with the proof if they had it.
The only reason I can imagine that responsible anti-gambling forces haven't made this claim is because there is no proof. And if online were crooked you simply could NOT hide the proof. That does not prove that it's honest, but --whether I like to admit it or not--- it makes a very, very strong case.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:49 pm GMT by mindgame
Okay, while I was composing away, the post above was being written as well.
And it totally cracks me up. Come on, a room were the random number generator is kept?????
So we crack the safe and open it up? And what??? Random numbers spill out all over the floor????
And to cover our tracks we've got to put them all back...RANDOMLY!!!
But we need a random number re-generator for that!!! OMG!!!!
Random number generation is done by a mathematical algorythm. You can start caluculating the value of pi, for example, and the decimals are random digits. It's not like there's some machine spitting them out and stacking them up like ping-pong ball on TV when they pull the Lotto numbers.
However, random number generation is taken very serioulsy by the online poker sites. I know because I read up on this. They have actually had paid very reputable accounting firms (yes,,,,I hear you snickering and saying "Anderson/Enron debacle" and I admit nothing's foolproof) to study and verify the integrity of random number generation in their software. The random number stuff is at the very core of their software--I can't even imagine the level of encryption. Could security be bridged there? Well, let's talk conspiracy...anything's possible. And with my luck out of the 5 million hands that day, I'd be in the 200 that were crooked.
(Which, come to think of it, would explain everything.)
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:56 pm GMT by rlb2252
Your first post was great. You raised some fascinating points.
In your second post you said:
| Quote: | Okay, while I was composing away, the post above was being written as well.
And it totally cracks me up. Come on, a room were the random number generator is kept?????
So we crack the safe and open it up? And what??? Random numbers spill out all over the floor????
And to cover our tracks we've got to put them all back...RANDOMLY!!!
But we need a random number re-generator for that!!! OMG!!!! |
My description of the process by which random number generation is accomplished was more for visualization purposes. I didn’t assume anyone would take it literally.
Humorously rendered or not, I think we can assume that random number generation is done by software and that that software runs on a computer. Am I wrong?
I think we can also assume that that software and those computers have to be physically located some where on the premises of the online poker company.
If I’m wrong about those two assumptions, then I stand corrected. But if it’s true the idea that an employee could find a way to compromise the poker companies computers, doesn’t seem farfetched to me.
For me it’s less about the intricacies of random number generation--the how, why, and by what means it is done--but whether a company insider could find a way to read or translate the product of that number generation in real time.
What do you think?
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:01 pm GMT by ninetensuited
| cheezewhiz wrote: | YES OR NO to any of you. The cards come online just like in real life , totally unknown and random - yes/no !
There, proof - without having proof. An unbiased mind already knows this.
Im baffled at how anyone that has ever played online can even argue. I think its called Self-Delusion. If you can make money online, good for you - you've adapted to play much different and wipe out Rocks with your rags. You'll get annihilated in a live game most likely. Look through your precious statistics and take out all your POS luck wins with garbage, and see just how much your good hands win you.
The flops are juiced for action.
The hands are preprogrammed to stack against each other quite a bit.
The fishies and donks are tossed a bone "by design" to keep them swimming in the pond.
House software phantom players are playing all over, cheating you.
Sharks are definitely kept around, but are limited to the amount of abuse they can inflict on the amateurs. Its all controlled for good reasons.
People do collude, in mass numbers of hundreds.
People do inflict unsuspecting players' computers with Trojan programs that read Poker room information right off their machine, while playing against them.
Insiders do play with unfair advantages.
Have you ever played "God mode" in a video game ? Imagine sitting at a table, picking a target to sting. The board has made an almost unbeatable hand for the Villian , with the exception of 1 single exact card in the deck that would make Hero a straight flush for the win. Now just imagine how fun it would be to control the outcome by determining that card to appear on the river, and wiping out that a-holes whole stack. Later on a message board, that Villian is being told... "thats poker", bad luck dude, " it happens ". "you play more hands, your gonna get more beats like that"... " so many donks at low stakes, move up".. "you WANT players like this, you'll win in the long run"... the list goes on and on.
But - this player keeps at it, and starts to recover. He's playing his best game - the bankroll is rebuilding. Finally he thinks.." YES! I will never lose playing good, I just have to grind it out long-term". The next day, he sits down ready to rape the tables, and loses 10 to 1 favorites back to back to back for 3 hours straight, and loses his whole bankroll. Then, mysteriously, a free 40 dollars is offered in his account to entice him back for some more abuse. However now, he will never EVER get off that cycle of crazy losses - because he's now flagged for milking. After 3 or 4 deposits, he hates the game and never goes back.. possibly trying some other sites - which ALL do the same thing all over again.
What you have here, is a way to get 4 times the money from the average player, instead of a one-shot deposit and no-return. (BTW, Hero isnt another real person, Hero is the "house") There is no winner to collect villians loss. Not every beat, not every time. How will you know which is which ? You wont
This scenario happens every day, at every table , to 10,000 people. Its a pattern, its obvious, its crooked.
People are screwed every minute of every day, why would anyone endorse the POS game of online poker, in any way. I pity them.
So go ahead and say " wheres the proof ? " again so I can laugh. My mind must just work differently than yours - and wow am I Lucky for that.
Won't be long - the #@%$ will hit the fan. Enjoy the show. |
you sir......are a long term loser, and are looking for something to blame it on other than your shitty play.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:49 pm GMT by mindgame
9Ts: waste of space and too harsh. At least edit out your copying that entire post. Come on.
rib...
I apologize if you took that personally...it was just I got that image and it was totally cacking me up. And I think there probably are people who have no idea that a RNG isn't a thing, like that goofy ping pong ball machine the Illinois lottery uses (AND need I remind people that it WAS rigged with helium filled balls and guys went to prison for it?).
It's a process. In most computer programs it's going to be a subroutine that gets called up and executed to generate the card sequence. It would all happen in a couple nanoseconds. At a place like Party Poker that subroutine is getting accessed thousands of time each minute. Trying to isolate one game and rig the cards for it...well as paranoid as I am...I don't even think that could happen.
But could insiders pull some kind of scam? I would think they could, but I'd think that the site has some pretty serious controls to prevent that. However--they have to trust SOMEBODY, right? And we are talking about an enormous, unthinkably large amount of dough=temptation.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:51 pm GMT by rlb2252
| Quote: | rib...
I apologize if you took that personally...it was just I got that image and it was totally cacking me up. |
No problem, Mindgame.
As a would-be wordsmith, I am fascinated by how quickly words can evoke humor, pity, or rage. That this is not necessarily their intent, that they can be so quickly misinterpreted, is all the more fascinating.
Sometimes, attempting to discuss sensitive, close to the heart issues like we are here, the barbs can prick especially quick and especially deep. It’s like talking religion with the devout or politics with a hard core advocate for either party.
| Quote: | | ...like that goofy ping pong ball machine the Illinois lottery uses (AND need I remind people that it WAS rigged with helium filled balls and guys went to prison for it?). |
Didn’t know hear about that. Can you be more specific? What year. I’m not a regular lottery player but Illinois is my state.
| Quote: | It's a process. In most computer programs it's going to be a subroutine that gets called up and executed to generate the card sequence. It would all happen in a couple nanoseconds. At a place like Party Poker that subroutine is getting accessed thousands of time each minute. Trying to isolate one game and rig the cards for it...well as paranoid as I am...I don't even think that could happen.
|
Not rig the results. I’d be more concerned about an insider getting access to the RNG results in real time. As you say, I suppose that to isolate one table would be hard, maybe damn near impossible and let’s hope, for our sake, that it is. But then again, the fact that you can get the hand-history for any table mere milliseconds after a hand ends suggests that it might not be so complicated after all.
| Quote: | But could insiders pull some kind of scam? I would think they could, but I'd think that the site has some pretty serious controls to prevent that. However--they have to trust SOMEBODY, right? And we are talking about an enormous, unthinkably large amount of dough=temptation.
|
Yep! Money can make and has made all kind cross ethical lines they would have never attempted otherwise.
Having said that, I hope not to get too caught up in conspiracy theories. I’m not one of those nut jobs—well, maybe that’s debatable—but I try not to see a bogey man behind every rock.
If I start really believing all this conspiracy hype I’d be too paranoid to play online at all. And since I’m only just now getting started I really don’t want to get that way.
But intelligent discussion never hurt anyone, I suppose. And we would all do well to exercise due diligence in all life’s financial endeavors, not just poker.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:55 pm GMT by rlb2252
I probably need to concentrate less on conspiracy and more on tightening my game, but here's a last (hopefully) troubling online poker anomaly:
Shills.
The whole concept makes me a little uneasy, the use of shills by the poker companies, players subsidized by the industry to fill out short games.
Is this actually true? Is it acknowledged in the poker’s sites bill of particulars?
Are shills commonly employed in B&M casinos.
Does that make any of you feel a bit funny? Doesn’t this mean in these shilled games that poker sights have an interest in the outcome of those games.
What’s the low down on this?
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:41 pm GMT by mindgame
They don't use shills in the Chicago area, but they do in Reno and Vegas. I have an aquaintance who's the night shift poker room manager at the Vegas Hilton (small potatoes room, most of the time) and we talked a little about it. Just a few places use them. They are called "prop" players out there. The do NOT play for the house. They use their own money and keep what they win...eat the losses when they lose. They get a small hourly wage for playing (under $10/hour).
I talked to one guy who actually was a prop player. I don't think any of them are under 65 or 70. REAL old-timers, all retired and figure they can come in and play 2 or 3 times a week and get paid. I was leery at first, but these guy are absolute ROCKS. I mean they fold 97% of their hands. If you are in with one and you get check-raised...you're beat. He probably flopped high set. Their mantra is "Take it down on the turn." They are pretty easy to spot and it's rare to have more than two of them in a room--so they aren't exactly going to collude.
What the guy told me is he didn't really like playing that tight, but in the long run he was forced to, because the house could move him out of one game and into another any second--and frequently did. He said you can't afford to do any advertising or spend money figuring out a guy's game--most likely you'll never see him again. It's not like they add any action--just a warm body. They were super-tight, aggressive--but if they hurt you it's your own fault.
Posted Sun Sep 10, 2006 7:30 pm GMT by snoogins47
Props/Shills are everywhere. Most of them are playing on their own dime, and don't have computer-endowed psychic powers, regardless of the accusations.
Being leery of props is probably natural, but it's not much different than any other attempt to drum up action. It works out to the house's benefit. Generally it's not much more than a glorified rakeback program, except you have to jump in and out of games at somebody else's whims.
I won't go so far as to say that online poker is certainly on the level, but there's a lot of misconceptions about props/shills/whatnot that I figured I'd try to clear up.
Posted Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:37 am GMT by UrAteUp
| cheezewhiz wrote: | | YES OR NO to any of you. The cards come online just like in real life , totally unknown and random - yes/no ! |
Here is proof from Poker Stars. So now I bring my proof cheeze....can you provide us with yours?
| Quote: | PokerStars Poker Software
PokerStars submitted extensive information about the PokerStars random number generator (RNG) to two independent organizations. We asked these two trusted resources to perform an in-depth analysis of the randomness of the output of the RNG, and its implementation in the shuffling of the cards on PokerStars.
BMM International is an independent testing agency and consulting practice involved with the design, evaluation, implementation, testing and management of computer and Internet systems. The company tests and certifies all forms of conventional and electronic commerce computer systems and networks, specializing in gaming, wagering and sports betting systems.
PokerStars provided BMM with the source code for its RNG and shuffle, and software that PokerStars uses to protect the security of random numbers. BMM then subjected the source code and the output of the RNG to rigorous testing, including the Marsaglia Die Hard tests.
BMM found that:
the PokerStars RNG and shuffle generate results that are truly random and unpredictable
the software used by PokerStars complies with all industry-standard requirements (including entropy sources, security, unpredictability, uniformity and fairness)
the software passed the Marsaglia Die Hard tests,
BMM concluded that the PokerStars RNG and shuffle comply with the requirements of the standard "I0101 - Internet Gaming Random Number Generator Requirements."
www.bmm.com.au
Cigital, Inc. is a leading provider of solutions to speed the development and delivery of high-quality software. The company is a major provider of software quality management (SQM) solutions to major corporations worldwide, including Visa International, AOL Time Warner, Motorola, General Electric, Ericsson and many others.
Cigital has announced that it has confirmed the reliability and security of the random number generator (RNG) that PokerStars uses to shuffle cards on its PokerStars.com online poker site.
Cigital analyzed the source code, entropy sources and documentation for PokerStars' RNG implementation. In addition, a sample RNG output stream provided by PokerStars was subjected to - and passed - FIPS 140-1 testing. Using standard methods for exploiting RNGs and having full access to the source code, Cigital was unable to break the PokerStars RNG. Cigital found that the PokerStars implementation adheres to the current state-of-the-practice in generating random seeding values.
"Software that can generate reliable random numbers is an absolute requirement in the gaming industry," said Gary McGraw, Chief Technology Officer at Cigital. "Our analysis included extensive examination of the underlying algorithm for random number generation. We can state with confidence that use of the PokerStars RNG results in statistically random sequences used to generate the poker hands dealt on PokerStars.com. This, in turn, should provide a safe and fair gaming environment for the site's players."
"Cigital's reputation for excellence is well known in the gaming industry," said Dan Goldman, Vice President of Marketing at PokerStars. "Their previous discovery of critical RNG implementation weakness at a major online poker site made our decision to work with Cigital an easy one. Their considerable technical expertise and thorough approach to software reliability and security have established them as a trusted third-party evaluator."
www.cigital.com
Glossary
Entropy: a measure of a system's disorder or randomness.
FIPS 140-1: a U.S. government standard for implementations of cryptographic modules, that is, hardware or software that encrypts and decrypts data or performs other cryptographic operations. FIPS 140-1 specifies security requirements that are to be satisfied by a cryptographic module used within a security system protecting information within computer systems.
Marsaglia Die Hard Tests: a stringent battery of tests for random number generators, developed by George Marsaglia, Professor Emeritus, Florida State University (who also developed a variety of widely-used RNGs).
Random Number Generator (RNG): a system, device or module that creates a sequence of apparently unrelated numbers.
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Posted Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:09 am GMT by JewishPete
(This is not directed at anybody in particular)
Honestly, I still find great humor in the fact that some people can't accept the fact that they suck, and will find any, and every excuse in the book for why they are consistent losers.
Example: I had some moron telling me, on bodog, after losing AK to Ace rag to another, equally retarded player, that online poker is rigged. Going on for 20 minutes, He had every theory in the book. Everything from "New players are given winning hands so they stick around" "Cards are stacked on the bubble" "The software is rigged". Finally, I asked him a simple question: "Why?". A question, that he was not able to create an answer for. Seriously though, what benefit is it to Pokerstars, or Party poker to rig their software. Do you people, who swear up and down that online poker is rigged, actually realize how much freaking money these websites make a day by operating fairly? Why risk their already neverending income, by rigging their software for no apparent reason other than to screw the guy over who 'mastered' the game by watching poker on ESPN for two months? People don't realize that when you are a 98% favorite going into the river, that means that you are going to get screwed 2% of the time.
P.S - 5 minutes after Mr. Conspiracy Theorist explained to me how rigged online poker is, he hit a 7 on the river in a 3 handed all in pot, on a board of K, K, Q, when I was holding AK, villain 1 was holding A7, and he was holding 77. His 1 outer didn't seem to be that big of a deal when it was in his favor, and as you will notice, that seems to be the trend with these people. It's only rigged when THEY lose.
Get over it, Online poker is not rigged, their is absolutely no real benefit for these sites to rig their software. And the risk vs. reward ratio IF they decided to rig them is laughable.
Posted Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:33 pm GMT by Pokerfarian
For the sake of argument, suppose that we agree that the company that runs Party Poker is really a front for the Russian Mob.
The mob, or any criminal enterprise, will act the same 4 ways as any legit company in terms of their customers:
1) Take every penny that they can and not one penny more.
2) Do just enough for them to get them to come back.
3) Make it as easy as possible to be a customer
Bookies in the US are criminals by definition, yet thrive. Is it despite the fact that they are criminals or because they pay the winners?
A bookie that doesn't pay becomes an ex bookie overnight.
The fact that they are a criminal organization (arguments sake) will not change the way that they will interact, so long as the flow of money is not cut off.
In this case, the money is actually increasing each day, which brings us to 4) When the money dries up, re-tool or liquidate.
If the US suddenly outlaws internet gambling financial transaction, then the US stream of money would dry up. If there was no way to work around this ban, then the commitment to the customers would drop to 0%, and I would bet that my money would vanish, but even that move has it's risks (plenty of non-US players would hear and be very afraid).
It would take a massive simultainious, multi-national ban on finacial transactions to even make this tempting.
And of course, if the money stream gets thin, the Mob would at some point just keep every penny from everybody.
Anyone see that coming soon? I'll take my chances.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:21 am GMT by Erik
There is a lot of poker bots playing on Party Poker and other poker rooms.
One poker bot software areWinHoldEm, the first commercially available autoplaying poker software. It also has a team mode that makes it possible to collude with other players running WinHoldEm at the table.
If you are playing limit Holdém at full tables with blinds at 0,25-0,5, 0,5-1, 1-2 and you are a losing- or a breakeven player you are probably losing money to bots.
But if you are a winning player at higher limits or at No-limit, the Poker bots that exists today will probably lose money to you .
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:54 am GMT by kingetje
ask yourself this question: what would the pokersite that is cheating gain from doing so?? the money that you lose ends up in someone elses account! not the pokersite!
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:25 am GMT by JewishPete
| kingetje wrote: | | ask yourself this question: what would the pokersite that is cheating gain from doing so?? the money that you lose ends up in someone elses account! not the pokersite! |
You obviously don't understand that in reality 95% of online "players" are actually French Cyborg Robots living in tents in the alps. They work for the poker sites and can NEVER lose.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 11:03 am GMT by lwestatbus
What an interesting thread. I really enjoyed the OP because he presented analysis and reasoning which created insight. He clearly differentiated between fact and opinion and the writing was clever. Then there were several additional interesting posts. And Cheesy came out of his hole once again. LOL.
Great imagery on the random number generator room. I added my own visualization, two guys in greasy coveralls banging on the machine with large wrenches.
The Binion's poker room has a sign by the cashier cage telling players that the house players would be identified on request.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:21 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| JewishPete wrote: | | Do you people, who swear up and down that online poker is rigged, actually realize how much freaking money these websites make a day by operating fairly? Why risk their already neverending income, by rigging their software for no apparent reason other than to screw the guy over who 'mastered' the game by watching poker on ESPN for two months? |
This was too funny and too true not to quote.
| cheezewhiz wrote: | | If you can make money online, good for you - you've adapted to play much different and wipe out Rocks with your rags. You'll get annihilated in a live game most likely. |
Nice logic here. If you can win online, that must mean that you play junk and don't have a clue how to perform in a live game. It's these types of blind, all-encompassing statements that really get me chuckling.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:55 pm GMT by cheezewhiz
JewishPete said :Do you people, who swear up and down that online poker is rigged, actually realize how much freaking money these websites make a day by operating fairly?
I realize that they are making so much money because they are NOT operating fairly.
And about the "shills" talk. Real life shills - nothing to worry about because they dont have xray vision do they.
Online shills - arent real people, they are software driven, and know the outcomes of the hands before they are dealt. They call when you PUSH, when they know the end result is a win for them. So simple.
If I ran that company - I would have one of those on EVERY table in the whole system. How can you prove that secret. (Im sure they would have included it to the 3rd party analysis companies.. rotfl) I cant even get people to consider it ! Everyone is blinded by the HUGENESS of these companies and the money. I guess Commercials every 5 minutes on every channel doesnt hurt either. This country is FOUNDED on herding the naive sheep. You think we absolutely need gasoline and oil ?
Technology could have eliminated those needs 40 years ago. But there is too much money in it. Patents and inventions are bought and hidden away - to preserve the need for things we dont really need. Our governments are screwing the whole planet.... I think its possible then for a Poker site to screw you. Think bigger. Almost NOTHING is honest... why would your precious online poker be ? Unbelievable.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:04 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Paranoia is bad. Get back into treatment, and for godsakes, STAY ON YOUR MEDS THIS TIME!
I have my own conspiracy theory: cheezewhiz = mindgame.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:13 pm GMT by golddog
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean everybody isn't out to get you.
But, in this case, chees is just paranoid.
If it's mindgame, he really has mastered the art of writing in another voice. mindgame can at least structure arguments.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:15 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| cheezewhiz wrote: | | I realize that they are making so much money because they are NOT operating fairly. |
This is your theory and you are entitled to your opinion. Until you have proof, however, it is still just a theory.
| Webster's Dictionary wrote: | | Theory: (n) a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact. |
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:15 pm GMT by TheSalche
You want to know what juices the action?
Donkeys ... f*cking donkeys ...
Online poker sites don't have all that much to gain by "juicing" the action with awesome flops, etc. Damn it people, you'd think with all the stuff on TV, etc people might start to realize its not rigged.
I saw a WPT event where a guy hit runner runner 7s to win? Was it rigged? No. Does this happen online? Yes. Does it happen more often then in a casino? Yes. Why?
CAUSE THEY PLAY MILLIONS OF HANDS EVERY DAY
And if you're one of those people that believes in this sort of conspiracy theory bullshit, then why the f*ck are you stupid enough to participate in it?
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:23 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| golddog wrote: | | If it's mindgame, he really has mastered the art of writing in another voice. |
Or he's just got a new boarder in his head.
Here's my theory. I mention this only because a) I'm bored, and b) it amuses me.
I'm fairly certain that those periods when mindgame disappears from the forum correlate directly to the times when his loved ones discover that he's stopped taking his psychotropic medications, and are forced to commit him to a local institution.
After the required period of internment in which he swears to take his medications and keep his doctor's appointments, he's discharged back into society. Unfortunately, in very short order, he stops taking his pills ("they make me feel dead inside") and finds his way back here. This lasts only until some ugly public incident at the Wal-Mart involving lime green Jell-O and no pants.
Ahhhh, the never-ending cycle of life. Breathe it in.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:35 pm GMT by lwestatbus
It's amazing how much I didn't know until Cheezy explained it all to me.
Cheezy, what is your take on touch-screen voting?
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:43 pm GMT by JewishPete
| cheezewhiz wrote: | JewishPete said :Do you people, who swear up and down that online poker is rigged, actually realize how much freaking money these websites make a day by operating fairly?
I realize that they are making so much money because they are NOT operating fairly. |
Uhhhmmm...Can you explain this?
I was, in case you couldn't understand, referring to the rake that they take. Which in case you don't understand, is how they make money. How exactly are they "not operating" fairly by taking a rake, and how would rigging the cards in anyway guarantee them a higher rake?
Use common sense dude.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:50 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| JewishPete wrote: | | Uhhhmmm...Can you explain this? |
He's saying that there are seated players who work (or were programmed) for the site that know which cards are coming next. They call big bets with no odds because they know they'll suck out on the river. So, not only are they getting the rake on the hand, they get the whole pot too.
Juicing the pot has nothing to do with it.
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:51 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Cheez...dude...it's the same old boring conspiracy theory with you. If the world is out to screw you then relax and grab some vaseline because there are many more in the world then there is of you.
If you honestly feel poker sites are rigged with "virtual shills" then why bother ever playing online poker? Yes they could easily rig it but the implications would be enormous. The poker sites would lose ten of thousands of players. Why kill a cash cow when you can still keep having the milk for free?
As for the theory that mindgame and cheese are the same people...nahhhh....I for one am not buying it. At least mind's posts are humorous and interesting to read. While cheese is filled with the same old boring arguement that he can not and does not provide evidence to support.
For the poster who mentioned poker bots. Check out this link below. Bots do exist. Are they unbeatable? Not likely. They do not take into account other players starting hand requirements. They only know what they can see. That is their cards and the flop. They are not always right and very highly easy to throw off or beat.
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t18511/about-poker-bots?highlight=poker+bots
Enough said...peace everyone!!!!
PS Mindgame please get back on your meds too. I would hate to read something on the news involving you, nudity and lime green jello...yukkkk!!!... 
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:51 pm GMT by vyni
I'm not even responding to cheese anymore lol.
Touching back on the rng, and notion of an inside mans access or ability to predict rng results: an inside man would not waste the time on the rng output. That output is not a single result which determines the deck order. A catalog of all possible shuffles would be needed for the rng to operate on a single return: the technology to make this possible & run efficiently simply doesnt exist yet. It can be done, but the resources and hardware it would take.... no they arent. Run the numbers once, you'll be amazed.
So at the start of every hand, it's safely assumed here that the rng is queried for 5 results, plus another 2 results for every player in the hand. First hand of a 10 man sng, thats 27 results (we only need shuffle 27 random cards from the possible 52). That end card order is then held for (at least) the duration of the hand. Here is the inside mans target. For the 'insider to predict the 27 results and then translate this into a deck order.... by the time he's got it calculated, the hand would likely be over. Why waste time trying to figure the deck order when the data is already held elsewhere. If I were the server side developer, I would add one more initial rng result: the randoms for card selections pulling from the array of 52 possible cards: I would have several thousand preshuffled decks cataloged, and then my 27 rngs results for cards would pull from one of these random orders. This way, intercepted rng results could not be translated into a deck order without knowing which random starting order the pool was in. These 52 card preset orders would then be 'reshuffled' every few minutes. That's just how I would handle the shuffle as its a very simple measure towards security.
edit/update as I want to clear up the use of the term intercepted in relation to rng resluts: the rng is not a box sitting in the corner. It is software/service within the hardware. The applications call upon it internaly: to 'intercept' would require hacked server side code with additional lines/instructions, or the rng code itself compromised. My use of intercept here indicates more of a successfully predicted return.
To suggest that the decks are preset for 'action'... I dare you to calculate the sheer volume of resources it would take to have preset deck orders. Keep in mind, for action shuffles, you'll need catalog orders specific to 10 handed, 9 handed, all the way down to heads up orders. Why? An action order for 10 handed would not work in 5 handed, so seperate catalogs would be required.
And before it's suggested that the persons with access to the hardware which house that data would abuse it... Sorry if I disbelieve that they're intrested in your 20 dollar deposit, or give a damn how your 5 buck sng ends, or even would chase the 1st place prize in it. It's not worth their time.
Also there's the issue of private tourneys. We see the same 'action' flops in private games as well, where we know for fact that there are no bots in play. As far as user bots and/or collusion.... never have been scared of them, and never will be.
If anyone can show proof, or even patterns in a large data pool, that suggest corruption in deck orders, I welcome it. Please oh please if you have proof or data of it please please please bring it forward because I want to know. If all you have is suspicions and conspiracy theories.... keep em until you've done the research with results to support them.
Echoing my standard foul play reply....
If you believe the play is corrupted, then don't play.
Could it be any simpler?
Posted Wed Sep 13, 2006 2:36 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Go easy on mindgame, guys. He's a good person.
You have to admit that it's highly probable that there is collusion online. There may even be programs out there that can "trojan" into your computer and see your cards if you're unprotected. However, if you're entering account information and passwords on a computer without intrusion protection, you deserve to be cheated at the tables based on sheer stupidity.
My opinion is that the poker sites would not risk their credibility and possibly thousands of rake-paying players for an extra $1 mil or so. Think about how much you, alone, in the last year have paid in rakes. Now, multiply that times the average number of players online at any given site. Rigging the tables, IMO, would be the equivalent of buying $1,000,000 in lotto tickets to win the $100,000 prize.
A good bet is when the risk doesn't outweigh the reward. Those who don't grasp this concept are probably losing players anyway.
I don't know enough about bots to be able to intelligently discuss them so I will not do so.
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