Something Smell Fishy to You? |
|
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:44 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Poolshark is steaming over a few bad beats and is down 3 buy-ins. He has not ever check-raised the river before, nor has he ever bet a draw. Something does not seem right to me, but is there a decent enough chance we have the best hand here?
Also, please forgive the kitten killing on 4th street. It was a bit of a "feel" raise which told me he did not have a big hand.
PokerStars Game #6280449950: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/09/14 - 03:37:36 (ET)
Table 'Cybele IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: Jay-Owen ($8.60 in chips)
Seat 3: poolshark ($49 in chips)
Seat 4: bringiton311 ($81.45 in chips)
Seat 5: Turn_Prophet ($56.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Dirtayyy ($29.50 in chips)
Dirtayyy: posts small blind $0.25
Jay-Owen: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Turn_Prophet  
poolshark: calls $0.50
bringiton311: folds
Turn_Prophet: raises $1 to $1.50
Dirtayyy: calls $1.25
Jay-Owen: folds
poolshark: calls $1
*** FLOP ***   
Dirtayyy: checks
poolshark: bets $3
Turn_Prophet: calls $3
Dirtayyy: folds
*** TURN *** 
poolshark: bets $5
Turn_Prophet: raises $5 to $10
poolshark: calls $5
*** RIVER *** 
poolshark: checks
Turn_Prophet: bets $10
poolshark: raises $24.50 to $34.50 and is all-in
Turn_Prophet: ????
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:18 am GMT by khaosanroad
He has PP 5's or 8's I'm thinking. limped the small PP and called the 3x raise. He bet out his set and now he is going all-in with his House since he thinks you might have hit a flush
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:13 am GMT by kingetje
I wouldnt be surprised if he had A-8 here
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:59 am GMT by UrAteUp
I don't think he would throw all his chips into a pot if he wasn't sure he could win it. Maybe I am wrong but I smell a two pair or a set here.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:54 am GMT by fiezk
He called your dead kitten on 4th, and on 5th just about every possible draw on the flop now has you beat. Why did you bet the river? I know you said he had not previously bet his draws, but you never know. And if he has a jack its probably better than yours. Would he call the river with a naked 8?
A check-raise all-in on the river is very rarely a bluff. And even if you feel that there's a chance he might make that play with a hand like T8 or TT, there just aren't enough hands that contain a T that fits to merit a call imo.
Hope you called and he showed J8 
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:07 am GMT by MrDarling
| fiezk wrote: | | ...Why did you bet the river? |
I inclined to ask the same.
I value bet the river only when I'm sure I'm a head. Now all you really have is a J. So many hands out there are beating you - and not one of them will lay it down for any bet on the river.
Could be he has A5c..
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 12:25 pm GMT by Jauron
It does seem fishy to me, but I too have to question the river bet.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:45 pm GMT by shorn7
Fold. My guess is he hit a flush.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:10 pm GMT by khaosanroad
I'm sticking with the flopped set. If he's been taking some bad beats, he probably doesn't want to slow play and get burned again.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 5:03 pm GMT by efram
I'm guessing he fished a flush too.
at this point you have TPWK.
I would say lay it down, and I would also agree with the concensus a check behind on the river is better.
Why the $10 bet on the river?
Did you expect him to fold to it or were you actually value betting TPWK with a very scary board.
I respect your knowledge and play DCx, so am wondering what your thoughts were here.
Im wondering if he might have 89suited and hit his hand bigtime.
I think he's definitely got you beat no matter what. I fold.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 5:24 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, I'm going to risk sounding like a donkey here, but let me explain my plays (I know I make a lot of unorthodox moves, but that's why I like to post them here and see if I'm just totally crazy).
When he bet the flop, my immediate thought was that he had either J8 or another weak Jack. Like I said, I had never seen him bet a draw--in fact, he'd been overcautious with his draws, so I did not read him for clubs here. It would have been a great play on his part to bet the clubs to change up his play, but I was willing to believe he was going to play the hand more straight-forwardly since he was already down so much and seemed to be on tilt. Still, I decided just to call here and keep the pot small rather than risk being reraised off my hand, which I was not sure was good or not.
I loved the turn card, as it added a straight draw to my hand. The fact that he bet only $5 after making such a strong flop bet seemed like major weakness to me. I began to suspect he may not even have had as good as a Jack--there was the possibility his $5 was a blocking bet, but again, I was pretty sure he was on tilt and wasn't going to do anything especially fancy. The raise here was just to test him. If he really had nothing, he'd throw it away. If he had a very good hand (J9, a set, or better), I was almost dead certain he would reraise me and I could get away from it here. When he just called, I began to favor my "weak Jack" read again.
The river was where it got tricky. I REALLY considered checking behind right here, and I'll agree with you guys that this was probably the better play. But I was pretty confident in my read that he had a weak Jack (and I've just killed J5 or J8), and I wanted to get a little more out of him. I did NOT think he would check the river with a strong hand, again because he was steaming and would have wanted to get paid off. I didn't think the 9 had helped him, because nothing about his betting said he had a flush draw (given the context of the hand, anyway), and he'd slowed down when the first 9 came, so I didn't think the second one did anything for him.
But then he raised, and I almost beat myself over the head for betting myself off the hand, like you guys said. But I knew something was not right here. In my experience, people do not usually check-raise the river because they're so afraid of someone checking behind. Also, he'd already seen my check behind on the river 3 times, so I didn't think he'd pull this play, and I doubly didn't think so because of the tilt factor. With a flush or full house I think he bets that river... that was just my read based on the table, and I've learned to trust my instincts. The only hand I could account for that had me beat was QJ. Otherwise, that raise looked too much to me like an act of desperation.
In the end, I looked at the pot, figured I was getting over 2-to-1, and I decided to trust my gut instinct, so I called. He turned over J7 and I stacked him. Probably wasn't my finest play ever, but I felt like I had to go with my read and risk becoming the Daniel Negreanu Payoff-Wizard. Next time, though, I'll probably just check behind. I don't think that in any other situation my hand would be good here (because most players WOULD play a flush draw like that and WOULD have me beat with a river check-raise), but I just felt like so much of the context of the hand was telling me I had the best hand.
That was my logic for this hand. If you disagree with me, I don't blame you one bit, but the lesson of the day I think is that if you have a strong gut feeling you should usually trust it, assuming you're usually right. Is my chain of reasoning completely insane?
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 5:48 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Well, if you're quite certain he doesn't play a draw like this and he seems tilted, then it becomes a rather unique play against a specific person and a 'hand analysis' by others than yourself isn't really too useful.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:47 pm GMT by fiezk
J7 is the last hand I thought he would have. Why make the spectacular check-raise on the river? His jack had some showdown value.
nh and nice read!
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:18 pm GMT by Jauron
Nice read!
You went with your read and decided to not play it safe, nothing bad I can say about that.
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:30 pm GMT by efram
great read Diamond.
The fact that you'd checked behind 3 previous times leans me further to the call then originally.
but still, that is a very specific 'read' dependant analysis type hand but a good example of one.
stack-age-awea
Posted Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:59 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
You raise a good point, tame, but primarily the reason I posted the hand was to see if most people would have suggested raising more on the turn or checking behind on the river. Most people seemed to agree with checking the river, which I probably would have done in retrospect.
Thanks everyone for their insights.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:07 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | I loved the turn card, as it added a straight draw to my hand...If he had a very good hand (J9, a set, or better), I was almost dead certain he would reraise me and I could get away from it here. |
Do you see what is wrong with this?
Posted Sat Sep 16, 2006 2:43 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | I loved the turn card, as it added a straight draw to my hand...If he had a very good hand (J9, a set, or better), I was almost dead certain he would reraise me and I could get away from it here. |
Do you see what is wrong with this? |
Yes, 2 things, but I am sure they are semantic.
1. If my hand had improved, why try and get away from it? What I meant was if he raises so much that I cannot call profitably (which he likely would if he's steaming and has a big hand), then I will know and I can lay my hand down rather than risk calling, bricking the river, and making the decision for my stack then without that information.
2. Yes, it's possible he would know this and just smooth call, but given his deameanor I had all but ruled this possibility out.
|
|
