Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:15 am GMT by JewishPete
$50+5, 25k Guaranteed on Bodog - deep stack.
Second hand, no reads at all but villain is a known top tournament player, and is consistently in top 5-10 tournament leader board.
I'm in LP with Q  K
I raise 4x, button folds, SB folds, villain calls in the BB.
Flop: 5 Q  K
I bet out half the pot, villain calls.
Turn: Q 
Check, Check.
River: 9
I 'Value' bet half the pot, and villain immediately pushes. I'm almost certain villain knows what I have, and I'm also fairly certain the second nuts is no good.
Question is: Are you calling here? Or how often is villain pushing with 55, or 99 rather than the absolute nuts? Villain knows im strong, and will probably get a call on his push.
Results to follow.
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Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:30 am GMT by BeerWench13
I call. If he has the straight flush, so be it. Just because he's a top tourney player doesn't mean he's not making a move here. He may have AQ or hit his flush. I don't think I would lay this down.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:40 am GMT by Dave B
No str8 flush wench, just KK.
I go broke here if he has KK.
I also bet the turn, likely 1/2 pot again.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:43 am GMT by ye1tzen
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | I call. If he has the straight flush, so be it. Just because he's a top tourney player doesn't mean he's not making a move here. He may have AQ or hit his flush. I don't think I would lay this down. |
If he has a straight flush, Bodog has a lawsuit on their hands.
It's kind of hard to make a judgement without knowing what the stacks are. You say "deep stack"... if that refers to both of you, then it's probably an insta-call. Why would a deep stack push if he had KK? If you had AQ or QJs, you might get away from it. I highly doubt he knows exactly what you have. You played the hand like AK. I don't see how a standard post-flop bet followed by a check tells him exactly what you have.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:52 am GMT by BeerWench13
Oops I read that wrongly and thought the K Q was on the flop.  My bad. I've got UAU disease.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:01 am GMT by fiezk
| Dave B wrote: | No str8 flush wench, just KK.
I go broke here if he has KK.
I also bet the turn, likely 1/2 pot again. |
same.
btw. how big of a bet was Villains push on the river?
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:35 am GMT by JewishPete
| ye1tzen wrote: | | BeerWench13 wrote: | | I call. If he has the straight flush, so be it. Just because he's a top tourney player doesn't mean he's not making a move here. He may have AQ or hit his flush. I don't think I would lay this down. |
If he has a straight flush, Bodog has a lawsuit on their hands.
It's kind of hard to make a judgement without knowing what the stacks are. You say "deep stack"... if that refers to both of you, then it's probably an insta-call. Why would a deep stack push if he had KK? If you had AQ or QJs, you might get away from it. I highly doubt he knows exactly what you have. You played the hand like AK. I don't see how a standard post-flop bet followed by a check tells him exactly what you have. |
It was a deep stack tourney, not meaning we were deep stacked late in the tourney, it was only the second hand. we both had 5k stacks and blinds were only like 5/10 or maybe 10/20. The pot was about 1kish on my river bet.
I think the fact that he is a top tourney player should, actually dictate that he most likely was NOT making a move here. There is no reason to risk his stack because I "may" have AQ or AK.. Villain is absolutely not pushing the nut flush or a set here.
His range IMO is 55, 99, KK.
His River push indicated to me that he wanted a call. I can't see him pushing too many hands that I'm beating at this point, and also can't see him pushing on a steal when he figures me for relative strength that could call him with any number of hands that have him beat. I checked the turn hoping to rep AK and represent the turn queen as a scare card to me hoping to CR and at this point probably pointing him on the nut flush draw, hoping it hits. The river push though, confused the hell out of me
The river push was like 4k more. Both of our entire stacks.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:49 am GMT by snoogins47
Fold, if you hate money. Call if you like it, or even if you're indifferent to it but might be able to use it to buy something you're more than indifferent to. Hell call if you modestly dislike money... I'm sure you have rent, mortgage, car payments.. some sort of expenses.
Honestly, if villain can put you definitively on KQ based on a raise, cont bet, check, halfpot line, and also just magically happens to have flat-called preflop with KhKd, and smoothcalled the flop with it on an insanely drawy board, and then checked behind when he filled up, and 'knows' you'll call a push because of this, he's psychic or cheating. How can he possibly... h... how does your line show that much strength? How can he possibly take such a standard line, that could be a lot of hands, as meaning ludicrous amounts of strength, with the added wrinkle that this is the second hand he's played against you?
I assure you... assure you twice, three, four times over, that any "top tournament player," along with any "shitty" tournament player, or anybody in between, is capable of doing this with hands that aren't the last two kings in the deck. You call this bet, every time, and win way more than your share. If you called and lost, don't second guess yourself. If you folded, and he showed KK, pat yourself on the back, and don't ever do that again, because you just got really, really lucky, that the money you tried so desperately to light on fire didn't actually ignite.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:58 am GMT by BeerWench13
| JewishPete wrote: | | His River push indicated to me that he wanted a call. I can't see him pushing too many hands that I'm beating at this point, |
There's only 1 hand that beats you. How are you not seeing him pushing with an inferior hand? If he wanted a call, he'd not have pushed his whole stack out there. If he has KK, then he's pretty crazy to have bet it like such unless he went far enough down the rabbit hole to push to make it look like a bluff to get you to call with your second nuts when he has the nuts. I make this call every time.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:13 am GMT by Oasis
I'd call in a second.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:51 am GMT by kingetje
I think you might be giving this "top tournament player" a little bit too much credit here.
only KK
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:03 am GMT by Johny
Him being a top tournament player has nothing to do with it.
I agree with everyone above and I think it's a no brainer, call.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:05 am GMT by Iron Butt
| snoogins47 wrote: | | Call. CALL. CALLCALLCALLCALLCAAAAALLLL!!!!!! |
Jeez, snoog, ease up a little, I can hear your veins throbbing. 
Me too, plus I think unfortunately it's a splitter. Defends with KQ, smooth calls top 2 pair, checks the boat, then POW. Anyone else?
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:15 am GMT by Hurricane Ham
He could show me the case kings, and I'd still call out of spite.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:31 am GMT by cayouche
Pete,
What hands could he have pushed with??
AA, KK, AQ, KQ, Q9, JT, Q5, 99, 55.
You can rule out Q5, and maybe Q9 if he's really tight, because he wouldn't have called preflop. I would rule out AA as well, since he would've only called on the river. That leaves you with 6 possible hands, of which only one beats you. One hand ties. That's a 16.6% chance you're beaten. 16.6% tie. 66.6% win.
KK, AQ, KQ, JT, 99, 55.
You say you have about 3500 left to call for a total pot of 10000. You need only 35% chance of winning to make the call. Here, you're 66.6%.
Very +EV to call.
PS: This might not be the correct calculation for EV, but you get the idea.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:25 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
obviously call...if he has you, well just bad luck...
I'm betting 2-1 that the other guy did have KK tho cuz of the tone in yer post 
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:03 pm GMT by JewishPete
| snoogins47 wrote: | Fold, if you hate money. Call if you like it, or even if you're indifferent to it but might be able to use it to buy something you're more than indifferent to. Hell call if you modestly dislike money... I'm sure you have rent, mortgage, car payments.. some sort of expenses.
Honestly, if villain can put you definitively on KQ based on a raise, cont bet, check, halfpot line, and also just magically happens to have flat-called preflop with KhKd, and smoothcalled the flop with it on an insanely drawy board, and then checked behind when he filled up, and 'knows' you'll call a push because of this, he's psychic or cheating. How can he possibly... h... how does your line show that much strength? How can he possibly take such a standard line, that could be a lot of hands, as meaning ludicrous amounts of strength, with the added wrinkle that this is the second hand he's played against you?
I assure you... assure you twice, three, four times over, that any "top tournament player," along with any "shitty" tournament player, or anybody in between, is capable of doing this with hands that aren't the last two kings in the deck. You call this bet, every time, and win way more than your share. If you called and lost, don't second guess yourself. If you folded, and he showed KK, pat yourself on the back, and don't ever do that again, because you just got really, really lucky, that the money you tried so desperately to light on fire didn't actually ignite. |
Good post.
A few points though That I do wan't to bring up since IMO this hand is not a clear cut example of obviously being the smart move in the long run.
Here are some factors that need to be taken into consideration.
Villain, is, as stated a top tournament player on the site. I don't have a very good read on him at all after only being at 2 tables with him so far and memory being a bit hazy from the first time. Firstly, we need to rule out villain having junk. IMO it's not even an option. Villain can accumulate chips by knowing he is a better player than 95% of the tournament field. By pushing junk here, he is effectively playing a game of Russian Roulette since their are so many hands that the average player would call off their entire stack with. The range is anything frop trips, flush and boats. Cash game I win a record for fastest call of all time. However, we have to seperate the profitability of calls in a cash game and a tourney.
2 things I knew about villain were that he will play hands in a wild-passive matter, and would NEVER bluff his entire stack off, especially in a situation like above where there is so much for him to worry about if he doesn't have it.
I played the hand pretty badly. Would clarify though that he checked the nuts on the flop. My range preflop was very, very wide. On a draw heavy board I'm not sure why top set was checked here and not CR'd after the bet.
My check turn was a mistake because, it gave villain a much clearer range of hands I was holding. At this point, I either have nothing, I.E he is not getting paid off regardless, I have AK, or I have KQ. Had he been concerned with a nut flush draw, he would have most definitely bet here before me, which he didn't. I just said to him "Hey that queen scared me, I missed my draw, or Im trying to be smooth with my boat".
The spade on the river and my value bet narrowed my range of playable hands to QK, or the nut flush in his mind. I guess a case COULD be made for 55, but I think that is more likely. Now if villain read me for the nut flush he would not have pushed here because frankly, only a retard is calling here with the nut flush... I guess that can be argued, but Nobody is calling a push on that board with a flush. Had he though I was value betting the nut flush, he would have bet 2.5x what I did, approximately.
Being in LP, early on, I wouldn't have ruled out myself having KQ either. and thinking back on it, my check on the turn, as I stated before was horrible and narrowed the range of what I was playing down to 2 possible hands-- a flush draw, or a dumbass trying to slow play the KQ, oh and maybe the AK as well... No decent player is pushing here to scare me off the pot on the river. I should have seen this at the time. Villain knew I was strong enough to call my entire stack off, and overplaying the river guaranteed him a call.
He's pushing KQ, KK or the unlikely 55 here...Every time. It can be debated, and I know a lot of people will disagree, but this hand can be analyzed very well. I played it terribly, and more than anything I had to call because of his check on the flop.
He did have KK, and I was out, but the results aren't as relevant. Am I making this call most of the time? Yes, but I think before we are calling off here, we also have to say more than "I have the second nuts its an insta call" and think of a true range of hands that villain is pushing with.
Sorry for the long winded post. Hope someone can take a little something from this very odd hand 
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:07 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| JewishPete wrote: | | I played the hand pretty badly. |
I see no way that you don't go broke in this hand, 100% of the time, regardless of where you think you messed up.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:24 pm GMT by Dave B
Just because he is a good player does NOT mean that he wouldnt bluff or make a play w/ a soft hand or read you as being weak and believe that a AQ is good (or several other hands).
They way you played this, you trapped perfectly-there is no way I put you on KQ if I am this player. I am thinking AK 99-JJ or the like. You are either scared of the flop or the Q, so you slowed down. Your final stab at the pot on the river looks like a value bet w/ a K or 10 10 JJ. Not the 2nd nuts.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:29 pm GMT by shorn7
You can't fold here. Always fearig the nuts is a bad way to play. If he has KK, then so be it. But given how the hand played out, I don't see how he could have played it that way and expected to get paid off on the river unless he knows you will call with any Queen.
Sorry, but if you fold this to anyone, you shouldn't play.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:14 pm GMT by JewishPete
So theoretically speaking, no one here is ever folding KK preflop, right?
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:17 pm GMT by JewishPete
| shorn7 wrote: | You can't fold here. Always fearig the nuts is a bad way to play. If he has KK, then so be it. But given how the hand played out, I don't see how he could have played it that way and expected to get paid off on the river unless he knows you will call with any Queen.
Sorry, but if you fold this to anyone, you shouldn't play. |
Dumb and Rude response tbh.
1.) I'm not always fearing the nuts. However, if you read certain factors I listed in my long winded post, you would see why I could become more and more convinced that KK was more than just a slight possibility.
Honestly, I think the mindset of "If Villain has xx than oh well" is worse than making a laydown in this situation.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:21 pm GMT by Skribbles
So you post a hand asking if you should call or not then disagree with what everyone says because you had your "reads". Why bother posting it then? No one is going to fold this hand. A call here wins WAY more often than not.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:23 pm GMT by Hurricane Ham
Would you even be posting this hand if he had AQ? 55? 99?
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:26 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| JewishPete wrote: | | So theoretically speaking, no one here is ever folding KK preflop, right? |
I don't think I ever have, and I consider it a teeny tiny flaw in my game at most.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:59 pm GMT by JewishPete
| Skribbles wrote: | | So you post a hand asking if you should call or not then disagree with what everyone says because you had your "reads". Why bother posting it then? No one is going to fold this hand. A call here wins WAY more often than not. |
Wow.
I don't think I disagreed with what everyone said. I complimented posts people made and offered up my thinking process after the hand. Only time I responded the least bit defensively is after I was given a rude response.
The entire point of this thread was to bring into question the aspect of long term profitability and the difference between short term EV and long term and how it could apply to a single MTT.
But since everyone is getting hostile, I'll just stop posting. It's obvious that people don't really want to participate in a discussion on something that could have a ton of factors and a questionable topic.
ciao 
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:02 pm GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | shorn7 wrote:
You can't fold here. Always fearig the nuts is a bad way to play. If he has KK, then so be it. But given how the hand played out, I don't see how he could have played it that way and expected to get paid off on the river unless he knows you will call with any Queen.
Sorry, but if you fold this to anyone, you shouldn't play.
Dumb and Rude response tbh.
1.) I'm not always fearing the nuts. However, if you read certain factors I listed in my long winded post, you would see why I could become more and more convinced that KK was more than just a slight possibility.
Honestly, I think the mindset of "If Villain has xx than oh well" is worse than making a laydown in this situation. |
Sorry. Wasn't meant to be that way. But it seems to me that you have it in your head that since this guy is a "top rated tourny player", that this means you should fold incredibly strong hands to him. Could he have KK? Absolutely. And if he does have it then he played it poorly IMO as he only gets paid on the end if you hold specifically KQ. The larger point IMRO (in my rude opinion, as you say) is your giving him waaaaaaay too much credit here because you have seen his name in a list of top 10 tourny players.
Hey...go for broke and fold it. But folding here (unless you SEE HIS CARDS) is HUGELY -EV regardless of the outcome.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:32 pm GMT by Ryan231
if hes got the Kings then he can have my money, I'm not folding here, never. If he had KK why wouldn't he try to get more money into the pot and not just push his stack in. I think you are giving this top tourny pro WAY to much credit, a lot of these guys play many events and play them super aggressive early in order to build a large stack and take control. Ever watch phil Ivey in the early stages before he builds his massive stack? For many of these "top" players they try and make a large stack fast and then use it to bully the table which lets them take control.
Edit: this also brings up an interesting topic; how much extra value are these top players getting out of their aggression because people fear them? I've seen this effect happen to a lot of mid level players, they sit down at a table with a well known player and they play drastically different against them, its like they forget the basics and have this concrete idea of how they play regardless of what comes. If I was your villian here I guarantee you call me 99.9% of the time, you just can't fold a hand because of the guy's name and history.
Much of the time these big name players are using that as a weapon against players like yourself, the only time you see big name players go down is when people come along and play against them like they are playing against anyone else, recognizing their style and making the proper adjustments.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:50 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | Oops I read that wrongly and thought the K Q was on the flop. My bad. I've got UAU disease. |
Hey I resemble that remark... ...besides your old as me so we can just blame it on old age anyhow.
Call on this. If he has KK then I am paying him off. My thinking is he has AK, AQ or a and thinks the poker gods have shined on his sorry arse...make the call and count your chips afterward.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:54 pm GMT by Ryan231
| UrAteUp wrote: | | BeerWench13 wrote: | | Oops I read that wrongly and thought the K Q was on the flop. My bad. I've got UAU disease. |
Hey I resemble that remark... ...besides your old as me so we can just blame it on old age anyhow.
Call on this. If he has KK then I am paying him off. My thinking is he has AK, AQ or a and thinks the poker gods have shined on his sorry arse...make the call and count your chips afterward. |
Am I missing something or is there no flush possibilities on this board? Plus nobody is pushing all-in with a flush on a paired board, call at best I'd think.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:02 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Ryan231 wrote: | | UrAteUp wrote: | | BeerWench13 wrote: | | Oops I read that wrongly and thought the K Q was on the flop. My bad. I've got UAU disease. |
Hey I resemble that remark... ...besides your old as me so we can just blame it on old age anyhow.
Call on this. If he has KK then I am paying him off. My thinking is he has AK, AQ or a and thinks the poker gods have shined on his sorry arse...make the call and count your chips afterward. |
Am I missing something or is there no flush possibilities on this board? Plus nobody is pushing all-in with a flush on a paired board, call at best I'd think. |
Damn it...Wench messed me up this time... . Leave it to a woman to make me look stupid again...jeezus...what is it with women messing up things. See why we should never have a US Woman President?... .
I saw the KQ thought they were board cards as well even though I read they weren't.
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:06 pm GMT by MrDarling
This is actually a great play by Villain , preflop he was already HU , so no need to reraise and announce his hand.
Flopped a set - sure this is a scary board for the like of me, but I've seen few pro's slow play a made hand when a flush draw is out there, guess odds against 1 opp having the same suited cards and the board hitting the flush are slim enough that make this move +EV
Then once he hit his top board, its pretty obvious move to check the turn, seeing the Pete checked it as well he can put Pete on a hugh hand or no hand as well.
Seeing how most of you would have called the push - Its a great move. Though he should have been at least considering Pete to have the real nuts - Quads!
Wow, seeing hands like that really inspires. It opens up the possibilities of this hame even more.
Thanks a lot for sharing this Pete.
There is no way in the world I could have even consider him holding K's - did it cross you're mind before calling? If I did consider, I would have typed in the chat - if you got K's you deserve my money.
Actually did exactly that in a freeroll, where the only hand that could beat me was quad. I raised villain pushed. I typed that before calling. But in my case, he had a much smaller hand and I won.
BTW you guys, if this hand was on high stakes and DN was playing instead of Pete you'd all be like . "DN is off his game calling when he's beat" 
Posted Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:29 pm GMT by gumbie
| JewishPete wrote: | | So theoretically speaking, no one here is ever folding KK preflop, right? |
Folding KK preflop is MUCH easier than folding KQ here.
If u are utg at a full table with KK there are 9 ppl behind with six ways to have AA.
In your hand you are HU and there is only 1 way to have KK.
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:17 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
You should of been worried about him having kings as much as he should of been worried that you had queens. You knew, you had 2nd nutz but he should of known that he was carring 2nd nutz in his eyes as well and wasnt afraid to push. You shouldnt be either
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:40 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
| mortaleclipse wrote: | | You should of been worried about him having kings as much as he should of been worried that you had queens. You knew, you had 2nd nutz but he should of known that he was carring 2nd nutz in his eyes as well and wasnt afraid to push. You shouldnt be either |
good point.
Theres no way you can narrow his hands down enough to not call.
If its still early in the tourny, I call because its a great chance to double up and give you a shot at bullying people and going deep into the tourny. The vast majority of the time you're winning here,
And I dont think you played the hand badly at all. You were going broke on this hand no matter how you played it, and you gave other hands a chance to catch up on the river, plus provided plenty of oppertunities for him to bluff at the pot.
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