Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:18 am GMT by kompis
OK this isnt strictly about holdem, or even poker really... but i cant think where else to post it. It is in the spirit of holdem and making decisions based on implied odds and expected valuue et al.
OK so do any of you think it is viable for a person to make a decent living at roulette. You probably all heard it before, where you double the bet until you win. If you had a roll of £10million and decided that you wanted to earn 50k a day how realistic is this?
You bet 50k, lose.. so you bet 100k, lose so you bet 200k, lose so you bet 400k, lose so you bet 800k, lose so you bet 1.6m, lose so you bet 3.2m, lose so you bet 6.4m//// perhaps 50k a day is a bit risky. Only a few losses and youve nearly done all your roll. what about if u wanted to earn 10k day? 10k, 20k, 40k, 80k, 160k, 320k, 640k, 1.28m, 2.56m thats 9 losses in a row and things start to get hairy. OK 5k a day? 5k, 10k, 20k, 40k, 80k, 160k, 320k, 640k 1.28m, 2.56m, 5.12m and accumlated losses of 11.76million. So at about 9/10 losses in a row you go broke. Its certainly a -ev bet because of the green 0 on the roulette board evens money is never true odds. Chances of losing 9 50 50s in a row are not great but over time this is surely a losing proposition? due to the unfair nature of the roulette wheel. If i was rich i think i would do the double the bet strategy, if i wanted to earn say £1000 and i was worth 10 million i would feel quite safe that i could double the bet enough times to win back my losses and the £1k profit.
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Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:14 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
even only going for 1k, you only have to lose 9 times in a row before you cant recoup with a 10mil roll.
chances of losing 9 ~ 50/50's in a row?
1 in 512.
You do this strategy, you're broke in 2 years.
Each spin is a -ev proposition, no matter what strategy you come up with, you'll always lose in the long run.
And if you plug in the actual numbers (losing 19/37 times)
Your chances of losing 9 in a row are 1 in 403.
So you're broke in little over a year. And even if you don't go broke, what have you earned? 500k. And you're risking 10mil to get that. Bad move.
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:37 pm GMT by snoogins47
You're quite possibly the first person I've ever heard in my life, that demonstrates that he actually knows why this strategy is stupid, and still asks about it.
You'd seriously do this, ever? Just put the shit in a savings account. What happens when you're worth 100m, and your plan to win 1k today turns into you being stuck 40m? Suck it up and go buy a few more jets, or bet it all since you're due, to try to get back to +1k?
I never understood the allure of this strategy. Even if you're doing this on a +EV bet, it's stupid. I'll let others elaborate.
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:50 pm GMT by Skribbles
Red or Black isn't 50/50.
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:08 pm GMT by Phil14312
Same as the martingale (sp?) strategy for blackjack. -EV is -EV
All you are doing is taking many small wins and the eventual big loss.
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:12 pm GMT by kompis
yeah ure right, i did mention all of these pitfalls in the op.... dunno why i like the idea so much but the fact remains that i do. Guess its cos it seems like u can force it to go your way. But i have a penchant for the table games and i lose a fair bit of my poker winnings there. I cut it out for about 1 year but the Black jack has crept back in. Which is also -EV. guess i need to wise up a bit and cut it out again
EH EH EH
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:59 pm GMT by jimmer
| kompis wrote: | | you double the bet until you win. If you had a roll of £10million and decided that you wanted to earn 50k a day how realistic is this? |
Try reading "Thirteen against the bank" By Norman Leigh. He used a different system and it eventally worked. It worked so well in fact, casino's had to change their betting rules.
Posted Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:20 pm GMT by TheSalche
most casino type games (from what ive heard) have an upper and lower bound because the martingale strategy theoretical works on an unlimited bankroll when there is no bound to the betting
Posted Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:04 am GMT by Poto
| TheSalche wrote: | | most casino type games (from what ive heard) have an upper and lower bound because the martingale strategy theoretical works on an unlimited bankroll when there is no bound to the betting |
This is correct and there's a very good chance that an extremely rich person could force a win if he was allowed to double as many times as he liked.
Posted Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:02 am GMT by ComedyBee
As skribbles said, but to elabprate. The green makes you the loser.
Another thing to consider, if not already mentioned is that usually the betting limits are suiably arranged so you can't use this method.
CB
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