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Win rates in NL holdem



Posted Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:39 pm GMT by Ryan_j37
I was wondering what a satisfactory win rate in NL holdem is and if its a good idea to measure performance based on this. E.g. Ive logged about 4650 hands of $10NL and won $59.30 meaning i win 12.8Big blinds/100 hands on average. Is this satisfactory and what kind of winrates do you guys have?

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Posted Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:07 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Your math is off. You've only earned 1.28 big blinds/100 hands. Also, winrates in hold 'em are usually calculated in big bets, which is the turn/river bet size in fixed limit, and twice the big blind in no limit. So by that, you've earned 0.637 big bets/100 hands.

This is all pretty meaningless right now, though, because, out of all the statistics you might track of your play, winrate requires the largest sample size to be the least impacted by variance. I've read you need upwards of many tens of thousands of hands before you get an accurate count of your winrate. Like 50K-100K, if not more. You're winning money, which is good, so just review your game to try to fix leaks and get better and you should stay in the positive.



Posted Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:30 pm GMT by UrAteUp
My favorite way of tracking my NL ring game play is $ per hour. I find that my average is right at $8 per hour of play at the $0.10/$0.20 tables. That is an average based on the last 30 days of play. I usually keep track of starting and ending money and the amount of time I played. This gives me the best reading, in my opinion, of how I am playing and if I am winning or not.


Posted Fri Sep 22, 2006 1:39 pm GMT by Jauron
UrAteUp wrote:
My favorite way of tracking my NL ring game play is $ per hour. I find that my average is right at $8 per hour of play at the $0.10/$0.20 tables. That is an average based on the last 30 days of play. I usually keep track of starting and ending money and the amount of time I played. This gives me the best reading, in my opinion, of how I am playing and if I am winning or not.


You are AVERAGING 40BB an hour? Thats pretty impressive... you sure you have that right?



Posted Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:17 pm GMT by khaosanroad
Gunslinger wrote:
Your math is off. You've only earned 1.28 big blinds/100 hands. Also, winrates in hold 'em are usually calculated in big bets, which is the turn/river bet size in fixed limit, and twice the big blind in no limit. So by that, you've earned 0.637 big bets/100 hands.

This is all pretty meaningless right now, though, because, out of all the statistics you might track of your play, winrate requires the largest sample size to be the least impacted by variance. I've read you need upwards of many tens of thousands of hands before you get an accurate count of your winrate. Like 50K-100K, if not more. You're winning money, which is good, so just review your game to try to fix leaks and get better and you should stay in the positive.


Actually Ryan was right. $59.9/4650 hands= $0.0128 per hand

0.0128x 100 hands = $1.28 per 100 hands

big blind is .10 1.28/.10= 12.8 big blinds or 6.4 Big Bets


6.4 Big Bets/100 hands at 10NL is not unreasonable for a strong player.



Posted Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:39 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Oops. I did it in my head, and 4650/100 is not really 465. My bad.

6.4 BB/100 is a decent winrate, but it is a very small sample size.



Posted Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:42 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Jauron wrote:
UrAteUp wrote:
My favorite way of tracking my NL ring game play is $ per hour. I find that my average is right at $8 per hour of play at the $0.10/$0.20 tables. That is an average based on the last 30 days of play. I usually keep track of starting and ending money and the amount of time I played. This gives me the best reading, in my opinion, of how I am playing and if I am winning or not.


You are AVERAGING 40BB an hour? Thats pretty impressive... you sure you have that right?


I play short tables of no more then 6 people. So I see lots of hands and play plenty of them. According to my calculations and records that is correct. As I said some days it is more and some days it is less. My average though is $8 an hour. Again that is at NL Holdem and not FL.



Posted Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:42 pm GMT by UrAteUp
UrAteUp wrote:
Jauron wrote:
UrAteUp wrote:
My favorite way of tracking my NL ring game play is $ per hour. I find that my average is right at $8 per hour of play at the $0.10/$0.20 tables. That is an average based on the last 30 days of play. I usually keep track of starting and ending money and the amount of time I played. This gives me the best reading, in my opinion, of how I am playing and if I am winning or not.


You are AVERAGING 40BB an hour? Thats pretty impressive... you sure you have that right?


I play short tables of no more then 6 people. So I see lots of hands and play plenty of them. According to my calculations and records that is correct. As I said some days it is more and some days it is less. My average though is $8 an hour. Again that is at NL Holdem and not FL.


Let me just say for the record right now I will never post another post of this type again. After making this post I watched my ass get kicked to the point where I couldn't make even $0.10 an hour. I was loosing at a rate of about $5 an hour over this entire weekend. No more of this shit for me. From now on I just win what I can and not say one word about it.






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