No calculators avaliable.......HELP! |
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Posted Sat Sep 30, 2006 2:50 am GMT by jimmer
It's another home game, one of the guys is fairly short stacked. I get dealt A  Q He raises pre-flop, I call, everyone else folds.
Flop is 3 6 K  He goes all-in. Now I'm happy working out my pot-odds, but I would like some help with working out my actual hand odds.
I figure he has one of three hands. Pocket 33, pocket 66 or K?(junk).
Now, assuming he has trips, I obviously have 9 outs to a flush, which is about 4.2/1. Therefore, I work out this puts him roughly 80% favorite. (actually its 74%), but that's close enough.
If he has K junk, I figure I have a few more outs (9outs to a flush, plus 3 outs to an Ace). 12 outs is between 2.7-2.9'ish??? Therefore I work out this puts him roughly 75% favorite. However, I'm no where near with this calculation. (He's actually only 54%).
What am I doing wrong? How would you guys work out this calculation?
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Posted Sat Sep 30, 2006 8:53 am GMT by jimmer
Thinking about it a bit more, my calculations are totally wild. The reason being; if there were 3 players, my odds would be reduced even more????
I'm obviously missing the point somewhere?
Posted Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:30 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Your calculation of 4.2/1 of hitting your flush is for the next card. But he has gone all-in, so if you call, you get to see the next two cards, and your odds of hitting your flush by the river are about 2/1. If your Ace is live, your odds are even better. Since you said he was short stacked, I'm guessing you have more than enough pot-odds to make the call.
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