Will the number of entrants to the WSOP Main Event shrink? |
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Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:51 am GMT by General Sal
This is my own prediction in light of the events of the Safe Port Act.
It only makes sense that less people are going to play if they can't get in on that $50 entry to the WSOP. I set the line at
Number of entrants in WSOP main event to increase: + 150
Number of entrants in WSOP main event to decrease: - 150
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Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 7:54 am GMT by jimmer
IMO i think your slightly missing the point of this new law.
With reguards to my understanding, the key factors are;1 it only effects online sites and, 2 it only effects players with a US address.
Look at the big picture. A few sites have stopped allowing US players, but does that mean the US players are just going to stop playing??? My guess is no, they will go elsewhere to another site or even play more home games etc.
Secondly, the entrants to the WSOP comes from all over the world, not just the US. I have no idea on the percentage who are from the US (and of which, who qualified online), but I'm guessing this will not effect players from outside the US.
(They may cap the entrants anyway, but it won't be because of this law).
To conclude, (as long as they don't cap the entrants or entrants-per-site allocation) i see no reason why it can't hit 10,000. This is in light of the new law!
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:09 am GMT by MasterShake
I'm willing to bet it's MORE than half of the online qualifiers are Americans.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:15 am GMT by Jauron
| MasterShake wrote: | | I'm willing to bet it's MORE than half of the online qualifiers are Americans. |
Yep. If for no other reason that it is a "local" event for us.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:30 am GMT by Jefecaminador
Yup, I bet the field at the WSOP is comprised mostly of US players, many of which qualified online.
Part of the reason so many people play now, is both because its a fun game, but also because it is EXTREMELY easy to get started. This law is going to make it that much harder to get involved in online poker, and thats going to dramatically cut down on the number of players. Which in turn will cut down on the number of internet qualifiers to the WSOP.
I may be wrong about this, but I think about half the field qualified online, with most of those being Americans. You're probably looking at 2-3k US online qualifiers, many of which might not be there next year.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:52 am GMT by TheSalche
It is going to shrink by quite a lot, which is actually a good thing.
Real shitty thing that online poker is getting f*ck ... my Crypto accounts told me today that they're sending me checks for my money, can't even get it via Firepay, gotta wait 3 weeks for it.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 1:19 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
I think i'm right in saying that 80% of wsop main event players qualified online. I'd guess that about 80% of those were american.
I expect that there will remain, many, many online poker sites, however I also expect that 'casual' players will decrease dramatically.
I feel there will definately be a large drop in wsop numbers (the first in it's history) and wouldn't be surprised if it drops back to 2004 numbers, about 2500, possibly even less.
The golden years are over 
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 1:35 pm GMT by MasterShake
| wEbMaStEr wrote: | I think i'm right in saying that 80% of wsop main event players qualified online. I'd guess that about 80% of those were american.
I expect that there will remain, many, many online poker sites, however I also expect that 'casual' players will decrease dramatically.
I feel there will definately be a large drop in wsop numbers (the first in it's history) and wouldn't be surprised if it drops back to 2004 numbers, about 2500, possibly even less.
The golden years are over |
There was another drop one year. It wasn't significant, but it did happen in 1992 when the number dropped from 215 to 201.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 2:45 pm GMT by jimmer
Am I missing something here.
Through the opinions of everyone else I am willing to except I could be (and probably will be) wrong. I don't have a problem admitting this.
However, to my knowledge, it is only a couple of sites that have banned US players.????????
Now most of your posts suggest, (or at least hint) towards most of the WSOP qualifiers coming from online sites. I agree, i think this is probably the case. But by saying the numbers will be greatly reduced is also agreeing that MOST of the qualifiers came from one of these two sites?
To work out some basic maths, there are lots of poker sites out there which offered WSOP seats, but lets only use the bigger sites in this example. Lets say they are around 10 bigger sites and each one of them contributed 10% of the total entrants for the WSOP. (This is obviouly not the case, but lets use this example anyway). Therefore each site sent 800 entrants. If two sites are refusing to allow US players onto their sites, EVEN IF EVERY PLAYER THEY SENT WAS FROM THE U.S, this still only equates to 1,600entrants.
This examples extream but hopefully explains my point.
Combine this with the fact that poker is still rapidly growing and lots of US players will just move to other poker site, surely the numbers won't drop that much????????????/
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:12 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
Put simply, this isn't about sites declining US players, but rather the inability of casual users (the guy who drops $100 a month or w/e into his account through his credit card) to deposit easily on ANY online site.
Less players = smaller prizepools = less wsop seats
Mo matter how many sites stay with US players, the number of US players online WILL decrease, probably dramatically.
There were 2 major contributing factore behind the online poker boom, Moneymaker winning the wsop after satelliting in, and the ability for Joe Average to deposit online using his cc
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:18 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| jimmer wrote: | Am I missing something here.
<snip out the middle stuff>
Combine this with the fact that poker is still rapidly growing and lots of US players will just move to other poker site, surely the numbers won't drop that much????????????/ |
You're underestimating the whole thing. It's not just a couple of sites that have banned US players. The US government will now make it quite difficult to move money between online gambling sites and domestic banks. Many casual players are not going to go through the extra effort that will soon be required for US players to deposit/withdraw. Once the law is in effect, a lot of people won't be playing online at all; and those that do will be playing against other people who have gone to the same lengths as themselves to open accounts and deposit.
Online poker has been tougher than live poker for quite some time because of the lack of "walk-up traffic" online that you see in a casino card room. That gap in the amount of effort required to play is about to get even bigger, and I expect there will be a large reduction in the profitability of online games for the average player as a result.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:35 pm GMT by jimmer
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | You're underestimating the whole thing. |
| wEbMaStEr wrote: | | Put simply, this isn't about sites declining US players, but rather the inability of casual users |
Yeah, you're both right, I'm not looking at the big picture. Nice one.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:02 pm GMT by Jauron
I'm starting to sense this is just the begining though. Party and 888 might have ditched the US market but how long before others follow them, especially if they fight and loose the skill angle.
There is a lot of time between now and the WSOP, a lot can happen. I think most of us are expecting this to be the begining of the end as we know it.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:08 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I would not be surprised to see the size of the field in the ME be cut in HALF next year if sites continue to close their doors to US players, who account for over half the market. If Stars and Full Tilt (and others) remain open, however, I think the ME will stay about the same size or shrink by 10% or less--serious players will still have the Neteller route open so long as the sites allow US players to have accounts.
I just don't think the European market will expand quickly enough in the next year to account for the loss of US players in a site like Stars disallows US accounts (last year, Stars sent over 2,000 online qualifiers to the WSOP).
Personally, though, I don't think the ME will drop below its 2004 numbers, and there really isn't an enormous difference between a 2500 person tourney and a 10000 person tourney as far as operation goes (except fewer heats for Day 1). And I think I could live without the $12M first prize and revert to the lowly $5M first prize... either way you'd be pretty much set for life.
If anything, some of the prestige of the ME might be restored in absence of a sea of idiotic online qualifiers.
Posted Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:48 pm GMT by MasterShake
I don't think it will be cut down by that much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-25% decrease in attendance.
EDIT: But when you consider expected growth, I wouldn't be surprised to see it stay the same either.
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