Do you ever lay down the best hand? |
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Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:40 am GMT by Dave B
MJJ had a tourney a few weeks ago. I was the 1st out (again!) and nearly laid down the hand, even though I was 95% sure I had the best of it.
I limped w/ 6  5 and someone raised 3x the BB. The blinds folded, but I was getting 3:1 to call so I did (blinds were small, stacks were deep, it was very early and I was up 20% or so).
The flop comes 9 6  5  . I checked to him and he bet pot, I raised to 3k (starting 15k) and he moved all in immediately. I knew he had AA KK since he limped 3x w/ medium pairs already, do 99 didnt seem likely. He also wasnt one to bluff or creative enough to raise w/ 78.
So, I went to immediately call. Then I stopped and realized I was 70% or so, that leave a 30% chance of being sucked out. I strongly considered laying it down.
I felt that:
1) there would be a better spot
2) 1st and 2nd get paid, knocking him out wasnt important, you cant win a tourney in the 1st few hands
3) I didnt have the nuts, in fact, I might be drawing dead
I finally came to the conclusion that I am very good a playing deep stack tourneys, so I thought I would really be able to push the table around. More importantly, there was only 14 people. I think that if there were 30, I might have gotten away from it.
I called and Q on the turn and 9 on the river left him w/ a bigger 2 pair.
So, is there ANYONE that would lay down here? That is assuming their read was correct? BTW-I saw this same all in and instant calls twice more before I was sent to the rail w/ set or 2 pair vs overpairs.
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Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:04 am GMT by supafrey
In general, people overvalue how good they are "later on" in the mtt and undervalue how awesome chips are. Play when you're the favourite. Especially in a tourney where you'll only see the same people once and they often have less time to "catch on to you".
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:35 pm GMT by fiezk
With a 70% chance of winning I'm never laying it down. With a hypothetical 55-60 percent, I might consider it in a situation like this one.
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:31 pm GMT by Gunslinger
You're a 3:1 favorite if your read is correct, I can't see folding that edge.
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:11 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I had a hand recently in an MTT that I laid down in a similar spot. I had QQ in the BB. It was very late in the tourney and we were all in the money already. Average stacks were about 50K, representing about 25 BBs. I had 30k. An early position player moved all-in for 32K, a large overbet of the pot. Its folded to me, and I'm wondering what the heck the right play is here. I figured he either had me crushed - but that was relatively unlikely because why is he moving in with AA or KK - he probably doesn't mind seeing a flop with these hands. I then considered a strong ace, like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, and maybe even A9s or something similar. This particular player had made some bizarre plays earlier, moving all-in with some pretty "interesting" cards.
I decided that it was possible that I was nearly DD, but then also more likely that I was a 2:1 favorite. Then I thought about that situation. I would be out of the tournament about 33% of the time. I actually came to the conclusion that I'd rather fold and wait for a better spot purely because I knew that I could get my money in better than that, and if I folded I still had 15 BBs. I also hate calling - trying to avoid doing so without AA or KK unless I have a lot of chips (or have very few) in tournaments. Its one thing to move all-in with a 66% chance to win, but calling in that spot for your tournament life is a relatively marginal play.
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:13 pm GMT by MJJ
I think it is never correct to fold this online but it can be argued live- obviously the odds are the same, but at a live tourney, you don't get to start a new game if you bust out and in this case he knows and has some kind of read on 10 of the 14 guys left in the tourey- and 1/2 the field is dead money for sure. I had the same thoughts as Dave did when he got reraised for 85% of his chips- I would have called but I wouldn't have liked it either.
As it turns out, the worst player in the field took second after a mind numbing string of suckouts (6J beat AK- AI pre flop, 77 cracked KK- AI preflop, A7 beat AQ... you get the picture) Amazingly he had 80% of the chips in play when it got to heads up and check/folded his entire stack away...
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:21 pm GMT by shorn7
No way you can fold if you trust that read. If your oppponent is willing to put all his $$ in as a 3-1 dog, let him do it over and over and over and over and over....
Don't be jaded by this one result. The next 3 times, you will have an early monster stack.
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:42 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I never lay down something I think is the best hand. Only times would be in a few very select satellite bubble scenarios.
Being a good poker player IS about getting chips/money in with the best hands, or having good enough pot odds+implied odds to do it with worse hands. Getting an edge 'later' doesn't make sense when you might as well take the edge you are offered now.
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:19 pm GMT by Dave B
To be clear, I was a getting 3:1 on my money preflop (why I called w/ 6 high), I was only a 70% or roughly 2:1 favorite after the flop.
I always do my best in multis when I make folds that I dont "like". This was essentially a SNG, so a different situation. But I often struggle to get the balance between folding the best hand vs risking doubling up. You can do well without risking your all your chips. But I wonder if I would be doing better if I assume more risks early (and suffer more suckouts).
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:46 pm GMT by MJJ
You have to call by the math- the only way a fold could become understandable is if you believe you are way better than the rest of the field (like no one had ever played before) or if you want to allow for some consideration other than winning- ie giving value to playing longer with your friends in a tourney instead of driving home at 7pm ( I know you went to Canterbury, but i could argue that is home for you)
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:21 pm GMT by Jauron
I have a problem with the idea that any edge is worth your stack. It's something I've struggled with time and time again, willing to make the big laydown especially early on when a double up doesn't mean much.
Having said that, recently I've come to regret about 50% of my big laydowns, as I went against my read and did not take the chance. I should note most of these are preflop laydowns and I am probable to be a small favorite.
I feel I am a good enough player that I don't have to get into coin flips, and even after these laydowns I find a way to grow my stack, but I also find myself later being sick of the good laydown and calling in the same spot. Something isn't right about that.
In this spot I think there is a different approach that allows you to make a decision with better odds if your read is good. A smooth call on the flop and see the turn if you feel he won't lay down to any bet would increase your odds (or if the board pairs high you can lay it down) and allow you to check raise on the turn. It's a weaker play but also less risky. If he puts money in the pot on the turn he's likely to call down and if he doesn't you get a bigger pot.
Later in the tourney I would probably check raise all in on that flop and force him to call me down, early on people seem more willing to gamble... if you had moved all in and flipped your hand face up he still might have called early.
I guess what I am trying to say is early on there is not as much need or profit in small edges, later on you are often forced to take one just to survive. 70/30 is not a small edge but it's also not huge. 80/20 is about the lower limit to what I consider to be a big edge, pair over pair.
Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:46 pm GMT by Fat Tony
There is no way I would lay that down in a cash game, but in a tournament there are certain times where I would at least consider it.
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 12:22 pm GMT by Gunslinger
| Dave B wrote: | | To be clear, I was a getting 3:1 on my money preflop (why I called w/ 6 high), I was only a 70% or roughly 2:1 favorite after the flop. |
I don't know if you saw my link to THP's calculator up above Dave, but if he has AA or KK you're a 3:1 favorite after the flop.
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:29 pm GMT by supafrey
I thought someone else would mention this, but did you just use the qualifier only before the phrase "a 70/30 advantage"?
ONLY?
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:36 pm GMT by gumbie
Folding makes little sense.
Those of you are that going to fold 65 there really would be better off folding it preflop
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:41 pm GMT by snoogins47
| gumbie wrote: | Folding makes little sense.
Those of you are that going to fold 65 there really would be better off folding it preflop |
Hey, sometimes you flop quads. Then you've ONLY got him drawing to perfect-perfect, but sometimes you just have to gamble to win tournaments.
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 3:06 pm GMT by supafrey
gumbie brings up a great point. If you're only willing to lose your stack on a 70/30+, you should never, ever play suited connectors. Ever.
Like, ever.
Honestly, just fold them. Wait for AA or KK. Then push.
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:42 pm GMT by TheSalche
Dave,
Spots like these are the best spots early in SnGs. You're play with the 56s and preflop call is totally fine ... you seem to want to defend it a lot, but theres nothing wrong with it when the stacks are deep. You have a very good chance of doubling up here, why fold and wait for QQ - AA? Get your money in with the best of it and hope for the best is all you can do sometimes.
With SnG style tournaments, you're not playing to make the money, you're playing to get 1st place.
Salche
Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 6:05 pm GMT by TheSalche
| AHBrownell wrote: | I had a hand recently in an MTT that I laid down in a similar spot. I had QQ in the BB. It was very late in the tourney and we were all in the money already. Average stacks were about 50K, representing about 25 BBs. I had 30k. An early position player moved all-in for 32K, a large overbet of the pot. Its folded to me, and I'm wondering what the heck the right play is here. I figured he either had me crushed - but that was relatively unlikely because why is he moving in with AA or KK - he probably doesn't mind seeing a flop with these hands. I then considered a strong ace, like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, and maybe even A9s or something similar. This particular player had made some bizarre plays earlier, moving all-in with some pretty "interesting" cards.
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You're at worst a coinflip, but given his range more likely a 2.5 to 1 favorite or better ... but you folded?
I'm so confused ...
Posted Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:35 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I completely agree, and would never lay this down in this situation again...
Posted Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:07 am GMT by Ciso_B
call, call and call. I can understand folding in race situations, but this is a situation where you have a big edge imo. If he sucks out fair enough, but in tournaments you got to take these kind of edges if you want to win.
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