Playing Big Drawing Hands from the Flop |
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Posted Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:09 pm GMT by lwestatbus
I need some help with my big drawing hands (four flush and open ended straight draws) on the flop and subsequently. In theory these should come in about 1/3 of the time by the river (c. 36% and 32% respectively) but I am not realizing this 'rate of return' and it is costing me a lot of money. In particular, I don't know if I am experiencing a multi-week swing in the success rate on these draws or if I am playing them incorrectly. So I'd invite anyone to either review the summary below and identify any problems or post or point to coverage on playing these hands.
All of this is at low fixed limit ring games.
First, assume that I am only playing cards preflop that I should be or that any problems are really minor. I like to play suited connectors at almost any rank unless there is a raise in front of me when the bottom of the rankings (say from 56 down) drops out. I play these when the pot has at least four callers in it and will play them in early position if the table has been very loose with at least four players to the flop on most hands. I will also play them against a raise if there are enough callers already in before it comes to me (this doesn't happen much so I'm basically not playing medium suited connectors against a raise very often). I also like playing suited aces. Beyond that I play the typical starting cards as recommended by Sklansky, Miller, and Malmuth.
The issue really starts at the flop when I find myself with a four-flush or OESD. Now, I think I understand the math on these hands pretty well. SM&M actually recommend betting out on these hands and I'll do that about half the time. (Not sure why only half nor what determines when I do or don't.) Further, if it was correct to see the flop it seems to be almost universally correct to call any bet/raise on the flop with these hands. I don't say this as some sort of rule of thumb but as an observation on pot odds based on what has gone into the pot already. Note: The only exception to this rule is when I'll see the flop from early position with an active table the preflop is raised shortly after me and I end up heads up against the preflop raiser.
If I miss the turn the same conditions usually make it correct to call the turn and see the river. Some things certainly impact this, such as a pair on the board, a bet, raise, and folds to me, etc. But, again, the odds usually make it correct to call the turn to see the river but not always. By the way, I regularly find myself with the turn missing my target hand but giving me some additional help such as pairing one of my cards or giving my 4-flush draw an inside straight draw.
Finally, the problem isn't making these hands and then getting them stepped on by a better flush or straight or a full house. While this happens on occassion it isn't more frequent than I'd expect and I almost always identify the potential threat and play accordingly.
The bottom line is that I think that I am playing these hands correctly but am not realizing the 1/3 win rate that I think I should be. To be honest, I don't know where I stand financially on these hands. What I'd really like is for advice on how to play them and/or comments on whether a weeks/months-long period of not having these come home to roost is normal.
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Posted Wed Oct 11, 2006 6:50 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
It sounds to me like your thinking is fundamentally sound. In FL games, especially loose ones, your drawing odds are often astronomically good. If you flop something like the nut flush draw in a pot that has at least 2 other people in, you're actually betting for value (since your equity is more than 33%), and the more people in the pot, the better your equity translates to higher EV. If you're up front, I would start betting these hands more rather than checking, and if someone else has already bet, I would raise unless you really think it's going to drive a lot of people out of the pot. Certainly if there's been a bet and already a few calls, raising is mandatory. Also, by playing the flop aggressively, some less observant players will not give you a drawing hand, and you may get extra bets out of them when you hit your card.
Other than that, sounds like you're doing fine and your win rate will improve.
Posted Mon Oct 30, 2006 12:19 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Well, it must have been a swing. In the last half of October the win rate on these hands (and almost everything else I've been playing) has been unbelievably good. I have been following xDiamond's advice and betting out more consistently with these hands and am convinced that I have made a lot of money from players that did not put me on the flush or straight and massively overbet their 2 pair or sets. Have had a couple of these hands (suited aces both) turn into the stone cold nuts against two players with sets.
On top of that I've had more top pair hands hold up than I could have thought possible.
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