10/20 NL Hand: Comments Please |
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Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 9:04 am GMT by shorn7
Game is 10/20 NLHE, $2000 max buyin. I have been at the table for 1 lap and am at $2037. Villain is a player who is solid but not spectacular. I respect his play as a strong player, but he is not a pro.
I get QcQH in the SB. One limper to Villain who makes it $90 to go. He has roughly $1975 before his raise, so $1885 after. Folded to me. I decide to just call here as I firmly believe that QQ is a set value hand mostly when out of position against a solid player who has raised preflop. BB folds and limper calls so we go to the flop 3 handed with $290 in the pot. Anyone elsraise here?
Flop comes Jd Kc Qd giving me middle set. Normally, I would lead with my set here but since I have played with Villain a number of times and in fact have played a set like that against him, I decide to play it a bit differently. Add to that, the flop is such that he is almost guaranteed to bet, at which point I can checkraise to get it heads up and/or get it all in. Also, if he holds a hand like AK or TT, I want to make it prohibitively expensive for him to go on which I don't think I can do with a pot sized bet which he would likely call with those hands.
Anyway, I check, limper checks and Villain bets $240. I checkraise making it $700 to go (perhaps too small....maybe $1k was better?) and limper folds. Villain pushes pretty quickly. Pot is laying me $2700 to call $1100 roughly, so around 2.5 to 1 (70/30). What is your play?
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Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 9:22 am GMT by kingetje
jesus... i dont think i can answer this very objectively as these ammounts are pretty huge to me 
anyway, the only hands youre worried about NOW are of course KK and A-T. would he push with the nuts or the second nuts? there IS a flush draw on board so i dont think you could positively say no to that regarding all players
if this was me playing at my stakes i would probably call yes. AK might even be likely here, top pair top kicker with a straight draw is a nice hand for some people. though he'd be an idiot if he held that hand now and played it this way.. unless its the AK of DIAMONDS.. oh my god that would be something.
anyways,.. tough shit. i am curious to what happened and who held what
Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 12:10 pm GMT by 1988 TR
I call. Beating too many hands to fold.
Only hand u don't want to be up against is KK. Even if he has the nuts right now, u have outs.
I couldn't even begin to imagine folding here with almost half ur money already in.
Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 1:20 pm GMT by Skribbles
Definite call
Only KK and AT to worry about.
Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 1:39 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
For those worrying about the amounts involved, knock a few 0's off and tell us what you would do if it was .10/.20 NL.
You have pretty close to the exact situation you wanted here, Instacall for teh win.
Obviously tho, you're gonna tell us he has the best hand or he runner runners teh win or something, cos you won't be posting the situation if he shows AJ for a donk push 
Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 2:09 pm GMT by shorn7
Thanks to all for posting. Here is what I did, the thought behind it, and the result:
Well, I limited his hand range to 5 potential hands to be very conservative: AdKd, AA, KK, AT, JJ. KK and JJ basically cancel out since I am completely dead to one and completely crushing the other. So, the other three are what matters most. I am a 1.8 to 1 dog against a random AT (although if he holds diamonds too it is worse than that), I am a 9-1 favorite to AA (again slightly less if he holds AdAx), and I am a 60/40 favorite against AdKd. So, I figure I am about even money against the entire hand range. I also don't believe that I am know him well enough to fold this hand here nor do I think it is a +EV play either against his likely hand range (I did the quick math in my head, but have since run the numbers and was correct). So, I call. He turns over KK, I don't catch my miracle and bye bye $2k. Any of you guys actually lay this down?
Here is the data...
Hold'em Simulation
86,130 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JdKcQd Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QQ 47.49% 40,316 1,167
AdKd,AA,AT,KK,JJ 52.51% 44,647 1,167
Even eliminating AA, I still am only a 60/40 dog:
Hold'em Simulation
68,310 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JdKcQd Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QQ 3 9.75% 26,645 1,023
AdKd,AT,KK,JJ 60.25% 40,642 1,023
Bottom line....total cooler.
Posted Mon Oct 23, 2006 3:59 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Cooler for sure.
Posted Thu Oct 26, 2006 10:19 am GMT by ScanX
Usually I reraise PF but I understand the way u wanted to play it...QQ can be a bitch OOP.
But as soon as u go for set value and hit it I dont think u can lay it down unless u have the most amazing read on the player (or the board is ugliest possible...in this case the board is ugly but not the most ugly)...otherwise it's almost like playing scared...u got a good redraw to kills the nuts anyway.
Moreover you didnt reraise PF, so he can have about anything there.
You said he was solid but I would also add 98s in his potential holding (doesnt really matter though as it's same scenario as AT...but still :p).
Had you reraised preflop (and assuming he just calls that reraise) I think you would have called even faster on flop since he can be realistically holding only 1 hand that beats u there.
Anyway as TR said : cooler
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