how do you play this - 8's |
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Posted Tue Nov 07, 2006 5:30 pm GMT by MrDarling
I'll do a step by step from the flop..
The preflop call is pretty obvious to me.
Full Tilt Poker Game #1210126788: Table Hermitage (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:00:17 ET - 2006/11/07
Seat 1: burn1985 ($10.10)
Seat 2: beekeeper4 ($10.25)
Seat 3: Hero ($12.75)
Seat 4: BIZURKO ($9.20)
Seat 5: Teti22 ($4.30)
Seat 6: ooosteveo ($4.70)
BIZURKO posts the small blind of $0.05
Teti22 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero  
ooosteveo calls $0.10
burn1985 raises to $0.45
beekeeper4 calls $0.45
Hero calls $0.45
BIZURKO calls $0.40
Teti22 calls $0.35
ooosteveo calls $0.35
*** FLOP ***   
BIZURKO checks
Teti22 checks
ooosteveo checks
burn1985 checks
beekeeper4 checks
hero ?
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Posted Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:06 pm GMT by aaronw
I would say check and hope to spike an 8.
Posted Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:18 pm GMT by ScanX
check, maybe stab at turn if checked to u again
Posted Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:42 pm GMT by vyni
Chances of hitting a set are far too slim for me here...
I'ld take a shot at shutting it down right now.
2.70 in the pot, with the benefit of late position. 6 involved here all checking to you in a micro game... I'ld throw a buck, maybe even 2 just to represent that king and chase people out. May take it with that. If you get callers.... then you need look at how they've played their past hands. If someone barks back with a raise, I'ld likely fold it (unless its someone I've watched steal pots before).
Just too many involved here for me to check and give everyone a free card when my odds of improving are almost null. To check here means to fold to any bet that comes on the turn.
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 2:08 am GMT by MrDarling
With a raise and so many in the pot I decided before the flop I'm only going to play to a set....
however I did had position and decided to try and represent :
...
Hero bets $0.90
BIZURKO calls $0.90
Teti22 folds
ooosteveo folds
burn1985 folds
beekeeper4 folds
*** TURN *** 
BIZURKO bets $2
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
?
Now I'm confuse.
Who would check/call then lead with a bet?
Did he hit a set? Two pairs? wtf?
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 10:41 am GMT by UrAteUp
I agree with what Vyni said about how he would play this hand. I can also see why your having a problem given the way villian bet when the 9 came out. The pot is now $4.50 (roughly) before villian bet on the turn. He bet roughly half pot. Did he do it to represent he had the 9? I personally say lay it down here if you think villian has made two pair or a set. I do not feel villian has made the set. If he had I do not see him betting out here. More then likely he would keep letting you bet into him. I feel two pair is likely. Villian put out that bet to hope to get you off the pot and avoid you out drawing him. Or the last possability is villian is on a stone cold bluff.
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 11:48 am GMT by vyni
Too many scenarios at this point, in the bulk of which we're likely behind.
The 33% of pot bet from late was too low to represent the king (although if we did in fact hold the king in this situation we would have bet low hoping for callers... but I doubt 99% of players in a micro game would recognize it), so it's quite possible this 2 dollar wager is his means of finding out if you really have it or not. It's possible he's on A9 and believed his ace high was good enough to proceed (happens a lot at this level). I doubt this though, as we saw 4 folds to our bet on the flop that originaly called the 4.5bb preflop wager: I'm thinking aces are quite possibly dead here, and with the possibility of you holding a king... would he really get excited over a pair of nines? 93 or 94, why would he call preflop. K9, why would he shift from slow playing on the flop to betting out on the turn. Same for pocket 3s or 4s. Pocket 9s are a distinct possibility. Decisions would have to be made based on what you'ld seen him play with and how he played it before.
In the end though, we're holding a pair of 8s with 2 overcards already on the board. We bet the flop to take it away but didnt, so now it's time to throw the hand away.
imho.
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 12:52 pm GMT by supafrey
very player / read dependant turn.
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 1:41 pm GMT by Gunslinger
My first reaction to someone check/calling the flop like that and then leading the turn is to look at his relative position on the flop - relative to you, the bettor. There are four people behind him still to react to your bet, including the pre-flop raiser, and he's not check/raising to protect a hand or drive people out. The leadout on the turn makes me think he wanted some overcalls on the flop. No one else stuck around, though, so he's heads up OOP and wants to get money into the pot. It's definitely read dependant, but if this player has been solid I would say you're behind.
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 2:29 pm GMT by Jauron
I agree with vyni, I would have bet the flop and I think the flop bet of ours was too small.
On the turn there is no reason to continue IMO.
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 3:18 pm GMT by MrDarling
No real reads as I was multi tabling, but couldn't remember villain making any real moves...
I realize my bet was too small. it has something to do with Supa saying pot bets are too big but also because $2.7 seemed too much is someone is slow playing a hand. Should have probably opt to bet half the pot. First mistake
The move really confused me and I finally decided to call, hoping to see a free SD.
Probably my second mistake in this hand ...
...
Hero calls $2
*** RIVER *** 
BIZURKO bets $5.85, and is all in
Hero ?
Posted Wed Nov 08, 2006 7:08 pm GMT by vyni
At this point, we've ventured deep into the obvious fold territory unless we are confident he's simply trying to buy his way out of his bluff on the turn, and there's nothing here that can make us sure of that. Pair of 8s against three overcards and a guy willing to push the rest of his loot in for it.
Immediately fold, and then present scenario to your favorite poker forum to be harrassed about the flop wager and the call on the turn 
Posted Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:29 am GMT by UrAteUp
| vyni wrote: | At this point, we've ventured deep into the obvious fold territory unless we are confident he's simply trying to buy his way out of his bluff on the turn, and there's nothing here that can make us sure of that. Pair of 8s against three overcards and a guy willing to push the rest of his loot in for it.
Immediately fold, and then present scenario to your favorite poker forum to be harrassed about the flop wager and the call on the turn |
QFT....nothing you can do at this point but lay it down. Remember next time your in this situation all the advice that has been passed along to you...might make descsions in these situations a little easier for you...
Posted Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:28 am GMT by supafrey
| UrAteUp wrote: | | vyni wrote: | At this point, we've ventured deep into the obvious fold territory unless we are confident he's simply trying to buy his way out of his bluff on the turn, and there's nothing here that can make us sure of that. Pair of 8s against three overcards and a guy willing to push the rest of his loot in for it.
Immediately fold, and then present scenario to your favorite poker forum to be harrassed about the flop wager and the call on the turn |
QFT....nothing you can do at this point but lay it down. Remember next time your in this situation all the advice that has been passed along to you...might make descsions in these situations a little easier for you... |
Frustratingly, I doubt he could have learned very much from this thread.
The problem here is that this situation is overly situational and all but impossible to critique. There's literally a few dozen different considerations that need to be understood or guessed at for our "play" to be the correct one - something that's impossible to get from a little paragraph over THP and no reads. These kinds of hands are some of the more difficult ones, but ones that your natural "instinct" will start to address after a few more ... er.. tens of thousands of hands. Don't be frustrated.
As for the advice given - it all seems to have fallen back on the easy crutch of weak-tight play. When in doubt, most people just seem to resort to cliche and "weak" plays that offer minimal risk - considering your lack of reads this may be the safest route. A good deal of the time it is completely and totally wrong. That is what separates the stagnant grinders from people that move up up up in stakes. Creativity in mediocre situations. Up until the turn, this MAY have been one of those situations where a little creativity is fine. We really can't tell from the info given (although no info you give may really be sufficient - sometimes you just gotta be sitting there).
Just to clarify a couple things: I hate pot sized bets because they're silly for situations where we're unsure of our standing. In this case, we're very likely losing so there's no real reason to "figure out where we are". Bets that are 2/3-3/4 pots are great for these kinds of situations. If the pot blows up, we can still easily fold. Until then, we're showing strength.
I usually stick to 1/3-2/3 though, about 90% of the time.
And the river is an easy fold
Posted Thu Nov 09, 2006 3:15 pm GMT by MrDarling
Thanks for all the advice guys.
I did call the turn simply because I FELT is the right move. It wasn't. This is a push or fold situation. If I felt I was a head I needed to push, other wise fold was the right play.
Here is what happened :
*** RIVER ***
BIZURKO bets $5.85, and is all in
Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $5.85 returned to BIZURKO
BIZURKO shows   (a pair of Fours)
BIZURKO wins the pot ($7.65)
Was he bluffing, or did he actually though he had the best hand? Why did he show this hand?
Kept my cool and told him it was a nice move.
He did out play me in this hand.
After that he stayed out of my way for most of the session while I managed to built my stack back up. (had AK raised, SS1 pushed allin, SS2 call and I call - both had KJo...) decided to call it a day, even stood up from my other table and got A's.
raised to 4XBB , Villain (BIZURKO) raised to 20XBB ($2). I think a little and make it $5. he calls!!. Flop come all low cards. I push my last $7 he calls and his Q's do not improve.
I told him that was for the above hand and left the table. A find end for a nice session.
Supa (or anyone else) how would you play this hand differently?
In most days I would fold to the turn raise. I never marry low-mid pocket pairs, but for some reason I didn't feel he had me. Sadly, I didn't have the balls to keep to my feeling on the river.
I think the fact that my BR is still not big enough (I still don't have 20X max buyin) got to do with my inability to gamble that size of a stack. (another reason why I still don't buy for the full amount)
Posted Thu Nov 09, 2006 4:54 pm GMT by Smudge
Just curious about peoples thoughts about the call pre-flop, you say it was pretty obvious and im not saying you are wrong I can see scenarios where I would and would not play that hand. In this instance though with three people behind having allready indicated they had a hand they were willing to put some money to (obvioulsy that everyone after you would call as well was an unknown at that point) and nothing committed to the pot im not sure how much strength I would have given my 8s, knowing that any overcards on the board with that many hole cards in play would very probably put me behind. I think I would probably have folded preflop. Am I just overly tight?
I think your play thereafter was fine, the bet on the flop was good it pushed out all the rags and forced anyone who was slowplaying to show thier strength, dont think you can allow free cards with that many people still in the pot.
Posted Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:21 pm GMT by MrDarling
I will call most modest preflop raises with any pair.
I will not call a reraise most of the time, but it is really position and size depended.
set is a big money maker, and chances of hitting it are not that bad.
someone please tell us what they are (20% or something?)
Posted Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:24 pm GMT by supafrey
folding pocket pairs preflop to moderate raises in even semi-deepstacked nl is probably bad, and maybe really bad.
And MrDarling: Reread the part about hand history analyzing for this hand being impossible.... and my other posts in this thread.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:11 am GMT by vyni
Chance of getting 4-of-a-kind on the flop: 0.24%
Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.98%
Chance of getting 3-of-a-kind on the flop: 10.78%
Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 16.16%
Chance of only keeping 1 Pair on the flop: 71.84%
Chance of getting a Four Flush on the flop: 2.24%
Chance of NO overcards coming down on the flop: 13.27%
Chance of ONE overcard coming down on the flop: 39.80%
Chance of TWO overcards coming down on the flop: 36.61%
Chance of THREE overcards coming down on the flop: 10.33%
Chance of ANY overcards coming down on the flop: 86.73%
Pocket 8s here had almost a 25% chance of becoming possible top pair, or made set post flop. Worth looking at imho. Once thats gone away though, take a stab if the conditions look right or just throw it away.
A4... ugh.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:11 am GMT by UrAteUp
| supa wrote: | | folding pocket pairs preflop to moderate raises in even semi-deepstacked nl is probably bad, and maybe really bad. |
I agree here Supa. Refer to Vyni's post below. 25% chance of making a set and you might even have the best hand. If not you can throw it away without too big of a lose.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:17 am GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | 25% chance of making a set |
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:45 pm GMT by Smudge
I hear you and the stats do pretty much say it all. I guess for me when I decided to be more serious in the middle of this year and become a more steady player I looked at places in my game where I could tighten up and my middling pair play was one I highlighted and I think for me personally my play has been better for it even if it errs to much on the side of tightness. But I must admit the odd occassion where I do fold a pair and then see my card on the flop is one of the hardest to just take a deep breath and move on from.
Going to take those stats on board though and see how I can take better advantage of those hands.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 6:18 pm GMT by MrDarling
To me loosening up and becoming more aggressive was a way forward.
Playing Passive tight didn't earn me too many chips!
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 6:20 pm GMT by MrDarling
btw, just flopped a set of 4 after calling a preflop 4XBB raise.
Manage to milk dude for all his chips. He simply couldn't fold his K's
(I think he was the one who pushed allin on the river after I C/R hugh on the turn and over bet the river )
So you see, I won a $15 pot by risking $0.45 of my chips..
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