Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:14 am GMT by aaronw
$100NL. 6 max. No reads on any of the players. I havent been at the table too long. How was this hand played up until now? And what do I do here on the river?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?604536
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Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:41 am GMT by shorn7
Well, I definitely lead at this flop. Most players won't exepct the nut flush to lead, so you might get someone to call who shouldn't. What you don't want is a 4th spade to fall that kills your action. Yes, technically you don't have the nuts but if someone has the str8 flush, well you are doomed to likely get stacked.
The turn card sucks, especially when you bet and then called. It doesn't necessarily mean you are beat, but it isn't good. River is a blank and you bet again. Did you know your response to a big raise before you bet the river? Make sure you do so that when it comes you react accordingly.
Getting 1.5-1 on a call here...are you 40% sure that you are beat? If so, then fold. If not, then call. This is a tough one. My inclination given how villain played the hand is that you are beat here, probably by 77 or 88 (not TT since a lot of players in 6 max would re-raise with that hand, but it isn't impossible).
As hard as it might be, I think I let this one go. I think I can find a better spot to call off my stack than this.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:51 am GMT by aaronw
| shorn7 wrote: | Well, I definitely lead at this flop. Most players won't exepct the nut flush to lead, so you might get someone to call who shouldn't. What you don't want is a 4th spade to fall that kills your action. Yes, technically you don't have the nuts but if someone has the str8 flush, well you are doomed to likely get stacked.
The turn card sucks, especially when you bet and then called. It doesn't necessarily mean you are beat, but it isn't good. River is a blank and you bet again. Did you know your response to a big raise before you bet the river? Make sure you do so that when it comes you react accordingly.
Getting 1.5-1 on a call here...are you 40% sure that you are beat? If so, then fold. If not, then call. This is a tough one. My inclination given how villain played the hand is that you are beat here, probably by 77 or 88 (not TT since a lot of players in 6 max would re-raise with that hand, but it isn't impossible).
As hard as it might be, I think I let this one go. I think I can find a better spot to call off my stack than this. |
I was planning on going for a check-raise on the flop. But it got checked through  . Yes, I did know what I was going to do after I bet if he pushed. I planned on calling the push. To be honest, I think if he flopped a set, there is no way he is checking it through. The board is way too dangerous and way too draw heavy. So the board pair really didn't bother me too much. If he had TT, 88, or 77 he definately would have bet that flop because it is so draw heavy and already very dangerous. Its weird that you mention the straight flush because J9ss is the first hand that went through my mind on that flop. In my mind he either has something like KJss for a smaller flush, which I think is definately possible or J9ss or 69ss for the straight flush. Here is the distribution of hands that I put him on:
Smaller flush- 85%
Straight flush- 1%
Full house- 1%
Busted Flush draw- 5%
Some other weird hand (KsTx, etc)- 8%
Good distribution?
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:17 pm GMT by shorn7
Hmmm. The way he played the hand (in my mind) make a set more likely on the flop and small flush less likely. Generally, a set will not like that flop all that much since someone could already have a flush or str8 on it and therefore will check and hope to get a free/cheap look at the turn where if the board pairs he can then act more accordingly. Conversely, a small flush will want to lead that flop (unless it is the mortal J9s nuts) in hopes that they can get a bigger one spade hand to fold. So, I would look at it backwards from you.
Add to that villains play on the turn and river and I don't like your distribution all that much. Why would villain wait to push till the river with a small flush and let you draw for $9 on the turn? That doesn't make sense. I think it is more likely that he thinks you have the flush since you led both the turn and river and he knows that he has that beat and hopes that you will call the large overbet. The other possibility is a hand like KT with the Ks where as you said he is pushing to try and get you to fold a small flush.
All in all, I would make the distribution something like this:
Full house: 50%
Trip 8's: 10%
Smaller flush: 10%
Str8: 10%
Pair + busted flush: 20%
Given the pot offering you 60/40, I still think I muck.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:29 pm GMT by groton
Well Im a fish here
Call
and if he has you beat good play on his part
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:30 pm GMT by aaronw
| shorn7 wrote: | Hmmm. The way he played the hand (in my mind) make a set more likely on the flop and small flush less likely. Generally, a set will not like that flop all that much since someone could already have a flush or str8 on it and therefore will check and hope to get a free/cheap look at the turn where if the board pairs he can then act more accordingly. Conversely, a small flush will want to lead that flop (unless it is the mortal J9s nuts) in hopes that they can get a bigger one spade hand to fold. So, I would look at it backwards from you.
Add to that villains play on the turn and river and I don't like your distribution all that much. Why would villain wait to push till the river with a small flush and let you draw for $9 on the turn? That doesn't make sense. I think it is more likely that he thinks you have the flush since you led both the turn and river and he knows that he has that beat and hopes that you will call the large overbet. The other possibility is a hand like KT with the Ks where as you said he is pushing to try and get you to fold a small flush.
All in all, I would make the distribution something like this:
Full house: 50%
Trip 8's: 10%
Smaller flush: 10%
Str8: 10%
Pair + busted flush: 20%
Given the pot offering you 60/40, I still think I muck. |
I disagree with that part. I think he would bet the flop to try and stop someone from draw to the flush with the naked ace of spades. I really don't think that the possibilty of him having a set is that high. I still think that he would bet that flop to see where he is. Basically, I am only losing to TT or 77. 88 is very unlikely because that would give him quads. And 22 is extremely unlikely because the 2 only came on the river. I think you are giving him too much credit for a boat here. There are only 3 combinations of TT and 77 each. Whereas there are WAY more possibilities of a smaller flush, KsTx, something like 89, etc.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:48 pm GMT by shorn7
Well obviously he didnt have a boat or we wouldn't be talking about this anymore. So what did you do and what did he show?
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:53 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
| aaronw wrote: | | Basically, I am only losing to TT or 77. 88 is very unlikely because that would give him quads. |
What about 78? 8T? I realize these are cards that typically wouldn't call a 3x BB raise, but he was in the BB and getting 4.5:1 odds on that call. I am not saying I would fold this hand, but you have to include those as possibilities.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:57 pm GMT by aaronw
| Dat_Dude wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | Basically, I am only losing to TT or 77. 88 is very unlikely because that would give him quads. |
What about 78? 8T? I realize these are cards that typically wouldn't call a 3x BB raise, but he was in the BB and getting 4.5:1 odds on that call. I am not saying I would fold this hand, but you have to include those as possibilities. |
That is true. I also think they lead out on this flop, dont you? Anyway, I did call. And I was correct that he didn't have the boat. When I was sitting at the table, I just couldn't see him having a boat. However, maybe I should have given him more of a chance of having a bot. Anyway, he had the straight flush (69ss). Yuck! I don't know if there was much I could do...
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:21 pm GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | | I don't know if there was much I could do... |
Um, yes. You could have folded. Not trying to be a d*ck here, but with a pair on the board and you holding the nut flush, AND villain just calling the turn and then pushing over top of you on the river for all his chips, did you really think you were ahead? OK, so my analysis was wrong and he didnt have the boat, but a str8 flush is the same thing. He read you for what you had and got you to committ all of your chips.
Bottom line: this would have been a big fold, I concede that. But, it is the kind of laydown that you will learn to make in order to wait for a better spot to get your chips in.
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:27 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
I agree with shorn. If that turn card wasn't so scary, I would say there is no possible way you could lay this down having the 2nd nuts. There are just too many possibilities of hands that beat you and the way he played it.
You claim that he would lead out on a flop if he had 2 pair. Why? What if he was trying the same thing you were...a check/raise?
Posted Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:39 pm GMT by aaronw
| Dat_Dude wrote: | I agree with shorn. If that turn card wasn't so scary, I would say there is no possible way you could lay this down having the 2nd nuts. There are just too many possibilities of hands that beat you and the way he played it.
You claim that he would lead out on a flop if he had 2 pair. Why? What if he was trying the same thing you were...a check/raise? |
If he had 2 pair he would lead out to protect his against draws. That was my thought process anyway.
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