EV - Check my sums here if you can please. |
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Posted Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:30 am GMT by pm_french
Just trying to get my skull around expected value and devised an imaginary scenario on which to test my thinking.
SCENARIO -
You are heads up with $5 in the pot. After the flop you have a flush draw and you push in with your final $10. You estimate your opponent is likely to fold at this point 50% of the time if holding top pair.
To calculate the EV:
50% of the time you will win the $5 outright -> (0.5)(5) =2.50
Of the 50% time he calls you will win 33% of the time by cashing the flush-> (0.16)(15) = 2.40 The 15 is coming from the 5 already in plus the $10 he calls with.
Of the 50% of the time he calls you lose 66% of the time-> (0.34)(10)=-3.40.
This makes a total EV of +1.50 based on the presumption he folds 50% of the time.
Is my working out correct here? I'm basing this on a $5 win if he folds and not $15, similarly, if you catch your flush you get $15 and not $25 and if you lose you lose your $10 and not $25. The calcs are based on the extra you stand to win/lose by making this push.
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Posted Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:00 pm GMT by shorn7
I think you need to include the amount you push in with and the amount he calls with in your "he calls and you hit" and "he calls and you miss" calculations. But, the rest looks OK.
Posted Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:18 pm GMT by pm_french
Is that right??
I was presuming that you actually ignore the $10 push as by pushing I'm not winning $25 but $15 (the $5 in the pot plus the $10 the opponent calls with). Similarly, if I miss the flush then I have only lost $10 (the push) and not $25. If he folds then I only win $5 (the pot) and not $15.
Perhaps my thinking is incorrect though....?
Posted Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:11 pm GMT by shorn7
Once you push it in, the money counts as the pot so you have to include it. It's not like when you win the pot you don't get that $$ back or when you lose the pot you get it back in a refund. So, you do need to factor it into the math.
Posted Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:08 pm GMT by pm_french
Are you 'supposed' to be working out the EV during play or do you think it's only really useful as a tool for post play analysis?
Posted Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:29 pm GMT by shorn7
That is a good question. My personal thought is that you should do it both during and before/after play. During play, it generally comes up when you are faced with a tough all-in call or fold situation and you are assigning probabilities to your opponents hand range, your equity vs. hat hand range, and comparing that to the pot odds given. But, I think doing a lot of analysis away from the table can be helpful in recognizing situations at the table and playing them more effectively.
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