MTT Tourney - Deep and Late decision |
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Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:02 am GMT by supafrey
Lateish in a $150 tourney on stars. Thoughts on streets / action?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?630548
Hero?
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Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:14 am GMT by groton
im going say your beat there.
About your play in general Not bad at all maybe a pot size bet on that flop to take it down
Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:27 am GMT by Jauron
I'm mostly interested in the flop bet, why 5k there?
Sure looks like he wants a call there. If it's a bluff it's a pretty good one IMO.
Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:58 am GMT by aaronw
Raise more PF. Bet more on flop. Bet more on turn. He is betting less than half of the pot. According to my calculations, the pot has 47 900 chips. It is 17 000 to call. You are getting pretty good odds (~2.8:1). Any reads on the player? What range of hands could he have? Any chance of him playing suited connectors? Something like 89? T9? Could he have an overpair to the board? Something like JJ? I think I would reluctantly call on the river due to the odds. How did it turn out?
Edit- whats with the near min raise PF?
Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 5:56 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I think the preflop action is excellent for a tournament situation. We want to suck this guy into the pot, and we do that by making the pot attractive. In a deeper game or a cash game, I wouldn't like it, but here it's exactly what we want.
The flop bet I can't really defend though. I think we're looking to bet at least half the pot here, strictly for value. If he missed totally, we aren't going to make anything anyway, so giving cheap cards has little purpose. If, however, he has a draw that somehow connected with this board, giving cheap cards might kill you. If he has a FD, betting the pot basically puts him to a push or fold decision, which I think is best. But here, by betting only 5k, I think his implied odds on calling vs. raising are just a little too good.
The turn bet I think is reasonably good as a tester bet, and I think most of the time we can fold to a dangerous raise here.
River... ugh... looks like a typical stop-and-go play, and it might be diguised as a missed-draw bluff, making it even worse. I don't like folding, and I don't like calling either, so where does that leave me? In the end, this looks like a call based on pure guy instinct. My suspicion is you're beat, particularly since you both began the hand big-stacked and he probably isn't looking to risk a whole lot against you. I don't know, man. You got better instinct than me, and I think it's a very tough decision between calling and folding. The price of being wrong is so high, though, that it would really kill me to lose 17k, so I actually lean a little toward a fold.
Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 6:42 pm GMT by Phil14312
Looks like QQ or a ten to me. The small flop bet makes you have to call this hand on the river.
Posted Sat Nov 25, 2006 11:04 pm GMT by snoogins47
Weirdo.
I probably bet a hair more on the flop too, but I think people are overestimating how bad the bet size is. Probably helps induce a raise from a lot of worse hands, including occasional bluffs. Pricing him in if he has a flush draw isn't really a huge deal, since he has one virtually never, and he's probably raising us at least some of the time he does. (Edit: for those that wonder... seriously how many hands do you raise to 4k and call 5k more preflop there, that contain two spades, which cannot possibly have the As, nor the T or 7? A spade draw might have turned up here, but given our hand and the action it's significantly unlikely... and it's usually pretty unlikely in a heads up pot anyway.)
I definitely bet more on the turn too, but that's just because I like to go apeshit when I have a made hand AND a draw. It's like, a twofer. I like twofers.
River: Hero calls and loses to 5s5h.
| Quote: | | Sure looks like he wants a call there. If it's a bluff it's a pretty good one IMO. |
Even ignoring the bluff aspect, there's at least some chance that he's not desperate for value with a big hand, but he's desperate for a showdown. That often means we win. Definitely an important factor getting 3:1 or whatever it is that he's getting here.
Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 2:38 pm GMT by supafrey
variance: the tourney, like most on Stars (especially at higher buyins - 10% pools) are top heavy. This is late, I said. I probably should have specified that we're already in the money, but still about 40 people left.
Why I mention: I think one of the most important parts of this hand are the different stack sizes: 1.What happens if I call and win? 2.What happens if I fold? 3. What happens if I call and lose?
Overall, especially considering overarching "tourney theory" and the payouts, the benefits of 1. seemed to greeeeatly outweight the difference between 2 + 3.
Also.. this is late in a tourney, and people are being smart with their chips... ANY serious "chunk" of chips (2 - 3 thousand, for example) is a great benefit. That explains my minimum raises pre and post flop. Mesa havesa a gooda handa. Remember Harrington: when you have a big tourney hand, use it to win biiiiiiiiiiiig pots.
Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 3:13 pm GMT by shorn7
While I agree with everything you are saying supa, your hand doesn't appear to be so big on the river anymore when he leads out.
I think I would have bet more on the flop too (like 3/4), slowed down on the turn a bit (since you have outs if behind) and called the river. I think you are behind now, but 2.8 to 1 with an overpair is too good to pass up.
Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 5:02 pm GMT by TheSalche
All I gotta say is this hand is soooo weird lookin' with a tough river decision for OP.
Snoog has a valid point here, the only real chance of him having a spade draw is KQ spades. But the way villain played it was just so weirrrd.
Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 5:57 pm GMT by ScanX
Why do I get the feeling that this
| supafrey wrote: |
Also.. this is late in a tourney, and people are being smart with their chips... ANY serious "chunk" of chips (2 - 3 thousand, for example) is a great benefit.
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contradicts that
| supafrey wrote: |
That explains my minimum raises pre and post flop. Mesa havesa a gooda handa. Remember Harrington: when you have a big tourney hand, use it to win biiiiiiiiiiiig pots. |
OR
Why do I get the feeling that this
| supafrey wrote: |
Also.. this is late in a tourney, and people are being smart with their chips... ANY serious "chunk" of chips (2 - 3 thousand, for example) is a great benefit.
|
overweights that
| supafrey wrote: |
That explains my minimum raises pre and post flop. Mesa havesa a gooda handa. Remember Harrington: when you have a big tourney hand, use it to win biiiiiiiiiiiig pots. |
==> Raise more preflop, especially since u have same stacks.
Or am I missing it completely ?
Posted Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:28 pm GMT by supafrey
okay.
the first quote is referring to the fact that all the M's in the tourney at that point were so close and because of that, and the tight'ness and such, any chips were good chips.
BUT. the second quote refers to the fact that when we have big cards in tourneys, we should be winning pots. we should be seeing showdowns and raking in big pots, not folding so easily. we're not going to be seeing many good hands so...
Posted Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:42 pm GMT by ScanX
u just rephrased and didnt explain much.
the 2nd quote u want to do vs people that dont cover you or that wont cripple you...imo
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:46 am GMT by snoogins47
Well, it's interesting. But generally I think what Supa is saying is a few things...
1)Tournament realities make smaller bets/raises act similarly to larger ones in these spots. Later on when the money is significant and the blinds are as well, a preflop minraise might carry similar weight as far as what hands get involved, vs. what hands don't, as a 4xBB raise did an hour ago, and as a 10xBB raise did on hand 1.
2)When the blinds are big, and the pots are too, passing on what might be an edge is no goot, and basically just that winning the money that's already in the middle becomes more attractive, and important, than the money left to the side.
The points do seem to contradict themselves, and in some situations they probably do: there's usually a time where fold equity outweighs trying to squeak some more value out of a hand. Happens all the time in tournaments. The thing with AA preflop is, we have a massive massive edge, and unless our opponent thinks our range preflop is made up entirely of AA/KK (with supa? HAH!), and will act accordingly, losing him preflop is very bad. And "not when he flops two pair and busts you" doesn't count as a rebuttal to that statement.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:46 am GMT by gumbie
easy call
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 2:44 pm GMT by ScanX
my problem with the min-raise is that you are not making the opponent fold any hand (or close to it) and you're not making him pay enough to see the flop.
and those problems are completed by the bigger problem :
the opponent covers you (or almost)
so if you have shown a loose image before (it's what u implied with your "Supa ? Hah !"), you can use it to extract chips right now.
I understand everything you said and the value of the (slow)play, but I think that the min-raise is too extreme and dangerous in this case.
You are basically gambling your whole tourney on that slowplay of AA :
- he doesnt hit and folds on flop
- he hits strong and busts you
- he hits something that might not beat AA but still makes u sweat and prolly forces u to fold cause you have absolutely no idea where u stand since your preflop reraise gave you 0 info.
All that being said, I suck at tourney so I might be way off.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 3:10 pm GMT by supafrey
yeah you're both kind of right in saying that they're contradictory - or, as I'd put it, just balanced alongside one another. I never said they have to be weighted equally at all times.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:06 pm GMT by Phil14312
Results?
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:12 pm GMT by supafrey
I called and beat like Qs7x or something.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:31 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Pretty ballsy play for your opponent to make with a missed draw, kinda like the bluff Moneymaker ran on Farha in '03 that got Sam to lay down top pair.
Glad your instincts were better than Farha's, supa. 
General question though. If he checks the river, do you bet? And if so, how much? I appreciate the need to get chips at this stage in the tournament, and I have the generally the same thoughts on tournament play as you and Snoogins, but having him call twice on such a raggy board would almost freeze me up here.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:33 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
Thats one mistake I notice a lot of people make. When there is a tricky/aggresive player on the table, and all of a sudden they start making lower than normal bets, people think that they can just push them off the hand. That THIS time I KNOW he doesnt have anything, HES BETTING SO SMALL. When in fact its almost always the opposite case. Whenever an aggressive opponent shows signs of weakness, thats a huge red flag that they have a massive hand.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:48 pm GMT by supafrey
| Jefecaminador wrote: | | When in fact its almost always the opposite case. Whenever an aggressive opponent shows signs of weakness, thats a huge red flag that they have a massive hand. |
Also a sign of a fairly mediocre LAG.
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:51 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
| supafrey wrote: | | Jefecaminador wrote: | | When in fact its almost always the opposite case. Whenever an aggressive opponent shows signs of weakness, thats a huge red flag that they have a massive hand. |
Also a sign of a fairly mediocre LAG. |
Of which there are many.
Posted Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:00 am GMT by snoogins47
Scan, an honest question:
Are there really that many reasonable scenarios given the stack sizes in which you find yourself folding after the flop here?
A lot of the reason that I like the almost minraise preflop here is that the stacks are big enough to allow some play after the flop, but short enough so as to not let him have hardly any chance of getting away unscathed when he hits the flop. Basically, we're probably having our tournament decided on this hand anyway if we're up against another big hand. You mention that you don't like this because he has no reason to fold preflop. I think the small raise is significantly better than a larger one, simply because he has no reason to fold preflop
Basically, there's a nice chunk of his range here in which raising a large amount makes him play correctly and gets us $0 more out of him. That range can always, say, flop a pair, and make some more, extra large mistakes on the next couple streets. It's as if the Hellmuth thing is illustrated entirely in this hand. You know where he thinks he's so good that he always wants to make smaller bets/raises to keep people involved, since he feels that he forces them to make a lot more, bigger mistakes later in the hand? Well this doesn't even involve our skill, this just involves the situation. Keeping him involved here has him making huge post flop 'mistakes' pretty often, and only a tiny amount of the time does it involve us making them.
Yes, this almost undoubtedly means that we will bust out of the tournament more often. It also greatly increases our chances of getting through this hand sitting much prettier/doubling up.
I hate to keep beating this issue to the ground, but I feel like it's such a significant thing that it's worthwhile. Basically, with AA here, given the situation, I can't see how losing our opponent preflop is anything but a total disaster.
Posted Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:10 am GMT by tame_deuces
Tourneys ain't cash games, and in tourneys we'll have to wing it at key points with a little luck and glory.
I would rather take a slight (and I say slight, I get the impression from some here that AA never wins, it wins alot people) risk with aces than having to play pushbot with junk when I get blinded down later.
Besides, getting 1/6th of the stack in preflop with aces is good stuff, that's a dream situation in a cashgame, as your opponent will never profit enough to make it a good play by him.
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