Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:31 am GMT by Ensano
ok read on the villian was vpip 50% pfa 12.5% postfa 2.5 but not quite a maniac
Game #4101045644: Hold'em NL ($0.15/$0.25) - 2006/11/26 - 22:41:21 (ET)
Table "Josephyobo" Seat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: Ensano ($21.10 in chips)
Seat 2: Kris16083 ($47.47 in chips)
Seat 3: jney ($26.35 in chips)
Seat 4: Ritz09 ($24.20 in chips)
Seat 5: Gambitman ($33.10 in chips)
Seat 9: Jimmyrog ($23.80 in chips)
Seat 10: Reporter ($28.45 in chips)
Gambitman: posts small blind $0.15
Jimmyrog: posts big blind $0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Ensano T  T 
Reporter: calls $0.25
Ensano: raises to $0.75
Kris16083: calls $0.75
jney: folds
Ritz09: raises to $1.25
Gambitman: folds
Jimmyrog: folds
Reporter: calls $1
Ensano: calls $0.50
Kris16083: calls $1.25
reraise preflop felt like a strong pair so ideally i'm looking for my set so i slow down a bit....
----- FLOP ----- 6 5 7 
wanted to see if my overpair was good so i came out willing to fold to the reraise....
Reporter: checks
Ensano: bets $3
Kris16083: folds
Ritz09: calls $3
Reporter: folds
cold call makes me believe he's slowplaying so now i'm just looking for a reason to fold
----- TURN ----- 6 5 7 T 
thinking "sweet i just busted AA KK"
Ensano: bets $6.50
Ritz09: raises to $19.95 and is all-in
Ensano: is all-in $10.35
Returned uncalled bets $3.10 to Ritz09
----- RIVER ----- 6 5 7 T A
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Ritz09: shows 9 8 (A Straight, Ten high)
Ensano: shows T T (Three of a kind, Tens, Ace high)
Ritz09 collects $42.85 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $45.10 Main pot $42.85 Rake $2.25
Board     
Seat 1: Ensano showed   and lost
Seat 2: Kris16083 folded on the Flop
Seat 3: jney folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Ritz09 (button) showed   and won ($42.85) with A Straight, Ten high
Seat 5: Gambitman (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Jimmyrog (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: Reporter folded on the Flop
****HAND ENDS****
is there any way reason i shouldn't have gotten felted here or am I just SOL?
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Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:36 am GMT by zinn0
SOL
Posted Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:43 pm GMT by Gunslinger
There's no way you don't lose your stack there.
Posted Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:49 pm GMT by Felting
| Gunslinger wrote: | | There's no way you don't lose your stack there. |
Really? With a loose player on the button suited connectors has to be considered. Then the smooth call screams slow playing which then is confirmed by him coming over the top all in on the turn.
Basically the betting pattern said, "I have the nuts, but it'll cost you to see them."
To be fair I could see him also have a pocket pair and flopping a set or a big overpair but with 3 to the straight on the flop I think those hands are less likely to push.
Posted Thu Nov 30, 2006 10:07 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Yes suited connectors have to be considered, but of the suited connectors we're beating almost all of them. The chance of putting him on exactly 98 is virtually nil.
I go broke there every time.
And a smooth call does not "scream" slow-playing. The vast majority of the time, a call is just what it looks like--weakness.
Posted Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:10 am GMT by khaosanroad
Pwned!
I go broke on that one too.
Posted Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:49 am GMT by fiezk
easy call on the turn
Posted Fri Dec 01, 2006 6:18 am GMT by snoogins47
Yes, everything about the play looks pretty standard, though we could probably have a somewhat interesting discussion about the flop action, and also what it means.
Folding on the turn is so bad that even *thinking* about it is probably bad poker. Literally he can have the nuts like 98% of the time and calling is still right. And that's not hyperbole. The decision is close enough, even if he SHOWS you the nuts, that I bet plenty of people would still make the wrong decision at the table. The overwhelming majority of people who didn't would've done so mostly by dumb luck, or the fact that the "multiply your outs by 2" rule happens to end up miscalculating our equity in the right direction. Which is still pretty much dumb luck.
| Quote: | | And a smooth call does not "scream" slow-playing. The vast majority of the time, a call is just what it looks like--weakness. |
As much as I want to quibble over 'vast majority' this is still pretty much spot on. The interesting thing about this particular hand is, the vast majority of the time that our opponent IS slowplaying with his call on the flop, we're a 19 to 1 or better favorite on the turn.
Posted Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:28 am GMT by shorn7
If you fold this hand for fear of 98, you will go broke quickly playing NL. In fact, I would venture to bet that at this limit, 97 times out of 100 you will be ahead on te turn when all the $$ goes in. Not only that, but we ar forgetting that the pot is alos laying us over 3-1 and we have 10 outs if we are actually behind (3.6-1 to river Quads or a full).
In effect, given the pot odds ALONE, you would need to be 83% SURE that villain has EXACTLY 98 to fold here. AND, given the fact that he raised preflop which should expand his range to all the over pairs and even 99 on that board, there is simply no way you can even think about laying this down. As someone else pointed out, even if he turned over the 98, I think I still call the bet since you will get 83% of it back on average making a call after being shown the nuts only very marginally -EV.
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