Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 12:13 am GMT by aaronw
$100NL. 6 max. Villain is new to the table and I have never played with him. I have played with the other players in the hand for a bit and they are your typical, loose players.
squidkd ($19.35)
Matty486 ($99)
cbboy ($75.90)
OhanB57 ($40)
bwild4444 ($192.25)
J-Dacosta ($95.50)
squidkd posts the small blind of $0.50
Matty486 posts the big blind of $1
OhanB57 posts $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cbboy  
cbboy raises to $4.50
OhanB57 calls $3.50
bwild4444 folds
J-Dacosta folds
squidkd calls $4
Matty486 raises to $20
cbboy....
What do I do in this situation? Having never played with this player before, I have no idea if he is raising with a good hand like AA, KK, QQ or is just making a squeeze play (which I think is unlikely because of the shortstacked villain). Do I reraise here and try to get it all in (which I think would be a coin flip at best)?
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Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 3:20 am GMT by MrDarling
I see this happen in the low levels often. someone sits in a table and pushes allin - in the low levels they sometimes get call and more often then not they have some kind of "premium" hand : K7o , J2s or the like...
Posted Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:51 am GMT by shorn7
Unless you can put villain SPECIFICALLY on AA here (which you can't), then this hand in at the least a call given your pot odds (2.2-1). Even if he holds KK< you are easily getting the right price to draw to the ace (as you are 70/30 dog to KK, or 2.5-1). So the real question becomes, what is the better play given your stack size? Call or push now?
After you call, you will have $55.90 left and the pot would be $49. So, assuming any bet that you would face after the flop will essentially commit you to the hand. So now you have to consider what is the likelihood of villain's range by some combination analysis:
There are 3 combinations of AA and KK left in the deck (since you hold one of each). Villain would also likely ake this type of play with QQ-TT and AK, AQ, and maybe even AJ. Combining all of those together and you get 51 hands that you are either a coin flip or a significant favorite against and only 6 that you are a decent or big dog too. If you expand villains range to lower pairs, then the situation becomes even more favorable.
All things considered with your stack size and the above, I push now so I can't be bluffed out of the hand after the flop. Additionally, pushing gives you a certain amount of fold equity against some smaller pairs which you want.
This problem is all about pot size and stack size. Villain made a poor choice of amount to re-raise given what was already in the pot (unless he has AA) and this makes it easy for you to make this aggressive move as a money favorite against his likely range.
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