Posted Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:11 am GMT by Skribbles
***** Hand History for Game 5478141624 *****
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Sun Dec 03 02:57:06 EST 2006
Table Jackpot 1304238 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Whippet555 ( $42.20)
Seat 2: wildthangone ( $95.86)
Seat 3: O_Kitty_O ( $192.41)
Seat 4: peasoup26 ( $127.50)
Seat 5: zfrog ( $70.40)
Seat 6: Refoz123 ( $196.05)
Seat 7: Pure_Fu ( $11)
Seat 8: Dave_Babych8 ( $88)
Seat 9: l4sapach ( $50)
Seat 10: pokerman8615 ( $70.05)
Whippet555 posts small blind (0.50)
wildthangone posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Dave_Babych8  
O_Kitty_O raises (2) to 2
peasoup26 folds.
zfrog calls (2)
Refoz123 calls (2)
Pure_Fu folds.
Dave_Babych8 calls (2)
Whippet555 folds.
wildthangone folds.
** Dealing Flop ** :   
O_Kitty_O bets (3)
zfrog folds.
Refoz123 calls (3)
Dave_Babych8 calls (3)
** Dealing Turn ** : 
O_Kitty_O bets (3)
Refoz123 raises (8) to 8
Dave_Babych8 raises (20) to 20
O_Kitty_O calls (17)
Refoz123 folds.
** Dealing River ** : 
O_Kitty_O bets (167.41)
Hero ?
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Posted Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:14 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Almost exact same thing happened to me today; I called and I lost. Seems like ever since the Sklansky NL book came out, everyone just goes all-in on the river any time they have the nuts/near-nuts.
Posted Sun Dec 03, 2006 5:27 am GMT by Geno
I'd call and potentially go broke. Without a read on the guy it is impossible to tell but he raised from EP pre-flop so he could easily have   I guess but I think I'd put him on a slow played set and bust his ass  (Then reload to his flush)
Posted Sun Dec 03, 2006 12:29 pm GMT by aaronw
Thats a rough hand. I think I would have to put him on a flopped set of JJ here. I really can't see him betting just a flush draw into 2 people on the turn. He would probably check and call a bet instead of betting out himself. I think I would call here and expect to have the best hand ~ 75% of the time and see a flush the other 25%.
Do you have any reads on the player?
Posted Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:18 pm GMT by shorn7
If my math is right, looks like you are getting 2-1 on a call here. The question is do we really think villain would play a flush this way? Based on your remaining stack and the pot size, wouldn't he rather try to sell his hand a bit? So, are we losing this pot more than 33% of time? I don't think we are.
Unless I had a specific read on this player or he was the one who was calling all the way, I call here getting 2-1. But, Diamond is right that since Sklansky's NL book came out, more and more players are simply pushing with the nuts on the river, so no guarantees.
Posted Mon Dec 04, 2006 8:31 am GMT by Poto
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | Almost exact same thing happened to me today; I called and I lost. Seems like ever since the Sklansky NL book came out, everyone just goes all-in on the river any time they have the nuts/near-nuts. |
Care to write about what's written about this in the Sklansky NL book? You don't have to write a book. 
Posted Mon Dec 04, 2006 10:45 am GMT by Jauron
Would villian really have cold called two reraises on the turn with just a flush draw, made it and then pushed so hard?
Hard for me to want to get away from this, if I had to guess villian's hand was made before the river due to the smallish betting and then calling two raises but I suppose it could be the flush, especially if villian held A3 of clubs. I still think it's at worst a set though.
Posted Tue Dec 05, 2006 12:15 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Poto wrote: | | xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | Almost exact same thing happened to me today; I called and I lost. Seems like ever since the Sklansky NL book came out, everyone just goes all-in on the river any time they have the nuts/near-nuts. |
Care to write about what's written about this in the Sklansky NL book? You don't have to write a book. |
Quick synopsis: he shows, in terms of EV, that making a big bet with the nuts or near-nuts on the river often has the best long-term results.
It's better for a player to call $100 20% of the time when you have the nuts than for him to call $15 100% of the time when you have a hand that definitely beats him.
Many players seem to be taking this stance to heart, and I see a lot of all-in value bets on the end. Especially since players often think that an overbet on the end signifies a bluff, the tactic has become reasonably effective against otherwise good players.
Even so, I have a very tough time folding that on the river without a VERY good reason for doing so.
Posted Tue Dec 05, 2006 7:50 am GMT by Poto
xDiamond_CutteRx,
Thank you for explaining.
Posted Tue Dec 05, 2006 3:35 pm GMT by Skribbles
| aaronw wrote: |
Do you have any reads on the player? |
Drunken multi-tabling doesn't allow for "reads".
I went into the tank for as long as I could on this one... and layed it down. From his line, I thought he was on a flush draw. A tiny lead bet on both the flop and turn then calling a re-re-raise on the turn. This ruled out any overpair as even an idiot could see the straight possibilities.
After a bit of hassling he claimed AKc for the flush.
I still hate the river overbet... if he goes for half my stack or less here, he gets it. But I guess I have to thank Sklansky for saving me some money!
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