Posted Thu Dec 07, 2006 5:56 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, funny enough that right after we have a discussion that gave us the conclusion of something like, "even if you never fold a set, you can probably still be a winning player, and you will avoid a lot of bad laydowns." I think I may have encountered a situation last night where folding a set would have been prudent.
My second hand at the $2/$4 NL table lives ($200 stacks). I'm in the small blind with two red 3's. Four limp to me, I complete, BB checks.
Flop comes 8  4  2  . I check, checked around.
Turn is the 3 . I lead for $12. The BB raises to $30. All fold, I call.
River is an offsuit J. I check, BB leads for $50. Then he says, "I think you misses your spade flush." (to me, that's a huge indicator of strength) No reads, only second hand at the table... never seen this guy, but the quality of the average player here tends to be quite bad.
What is our next move?
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Posted Thu Dec 07, 2006 6:54 pm GMT by Skribbles
Call. Raising here doesn't have much value IMO. The possibility of a higher set or a straight (as everyone loves to play 56) is definitly there. Raising is useless as he will fold everyone thing that you beat.
Posted Thu Dec 07, 2006 11:45 pm GMT by shorn7
Yeah, a raise is out of the question but I think a fold is too. He could easily have two crappy pair from the BB as a free hand, so he doesn't necessarily have 56 or a bigger set. And since it is your second hand at the tabke, I don't think you know enuf about this guy to lay this down.
Posted Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:10 pm GMT by Gunslinger
If you're right about his comment really indicating stength, my guess is he still isn't putting you on such a strong hand, he has a medium strength hand and wants you to think he's trying to push you off the pot. But he'll still be shocked to see your set. He could have hands that beat you, but plenty of hands you beat. I agree with the others, don't raise, but you have to at least call.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 12:51 am GMT by Jauron
He probably talks me into laying this one down. If he kept his mouth shut I pay it off.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 2:02 am GMT by crack
Call.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 2:04 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
You only have to win one in three for this to be a profitable call. Theres too likely a chance hes making a play, or missed a checkraise chance on the flop with AA or something like that.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 5:06 pm GMT by groton
fold he has Johnny cakes 
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 8:51 pm GMT by TheSalche
Is it bad that I think we should push? What are we losing to?
JJ, 88, 44, 56, A5
He checked, so I think we can eliminate JJ and probably 88. I haven't played much live NL but that talk almost seems like he's betting expecting us to fold. Could he be raising the turn here with a hand like 84 or 82? Those make sense as a failed slowplay.
Putting us on a spade draw seems odd, betting 3/4 of the pot on the turn and calling a good sized raise wouldn't look like a flush draw to me.
Also if we do have the flush draw, does he really need to bet such a large amount (2/3 the pot or so)?
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 11:09 pm GMT by crack
I don't play live but if someone says I think you missed your flush draw and then bets anyway, wtf?
Why not just check it down because he ain't calling with a FD.
It's best to just call because I think his bet here on the river and what he said makes me take the cautious approach. Now if I had played against him before and knew a bit about him then perhaps leading the river or check raising it if I knew he would raise turn with a FD or something.
Basically I think against a random i'd call till I know how he plays.
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:34 pm GMT by jeffonline
quote="TheSalche"
Putting us on a spade draw seems odd, betting 3/4 of the pot on the turn and calling a good sized raise wouldn't look like a flush draw to me.quote]
I’m thinking he missed his flush draw and is trying to disguise his bluff. I’m not convinced that I could lay this down.
Posted Mon Dec 11, 2006 7:19 pm GMT by Gunslinger
So what happened?
Posted Thu Dec 14, 2006 11:08 am GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | | Is it bad that I think we should push? What are we losing to? |
That doesn't necessarily matter. A push here is only called by the hands that we are losing to, so their is no positive EV in the play. YOu either win nothing or lose the rest.
Posted Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:29 pm GMT by vyni
I'm sorry, but his bet looks like a cut-and-dry attempt to steal the pot. We checked the flop, as did everyone else. We led out half the pot when the 3 dropped, indicating that we were likely on a straight/flush draw. His reraise could mean many things: that he's on the straight himself is possible but there's no way we're laying down our set to that bet. Then, the river killed any straight/flush draws and we checked... his remark and bet here doesnt scream strength to me after our own actions screamed weakness. This is an easy call, and I likely wouldn't be afraid to raise here either: maybe just a min 50 to make it easy for him to call.
Posted Thu Dec 14, 2006 4:58 pm GMT by Jauron
It may be a mistake on my part but if a player doesn't normally talk and suddenly he does I usually think he's got a monster. When I see chat that says I think you missed X draw it usually means they have a monster.
Results will varry I suppose.
Posted Thu Dec 14, 2006 6:25 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Results: I was pretty sure I was beat, because most of the time when a player says something like, "I think you missed," it's translated as "I have a super strong hand but I want you to think I'm just making a move because I think you're weak. Please call with a marginal hand."
Still, I didn't see how I could get away from the hand on the CHANCE he had two pair or a busted draw himself. Plus, second hand at the table, I don't have enough information, so I called. He shows me 65 for the nuts.
Thanks for the input guys. I was feeling kind of bad about the call, but I don't feel as bad anymore. If I'd been at the table longer, I would have known this guy doesn't bet $50 without a cinch and I could have gotten away from it. C'est la vie, I still ended up $200 for the night.
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