Interesting river. Are we winning now? Ever? |
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Posted Fri Dec 08, 2006 10:29 pm GMT by supafrey
PokerStars Game #7360336953: Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2006/12/08 - 22:26:29 (ET)
Table 'Hektor III' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: mdwst1811 ($268.65 in chips)
Seat 2: mister cc ($678 in chips)
Seat 3: pocket2sroc ($230.10 in chips)
Seat 4: pavelzzz ($1697.10 in chips)
Seat 5: LinkyStinky ($632.25 in chips)
Seat 6: mgm2008 ($329 in chips)
Seat 9: Staggerlee ($853.05 in chips)
mgm2008: posts small blind $3
bmacdona: is sitting out
bmacdona leaves the table
Wolfieman: is sitting out
Staggerlee: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pavelzzz  
mdwst1811: folds
mister cc: folds
pocket2sroc: folds
pavelzzz: raises $18 to $24
LinkyStinky: calls $24
mgm2008: folds
Staggerlee: folds
*** FLOP ***   
pavelzzz: bets $30
LinkyStinky: calls $30
*** TURN *** 
Wolfieman leaves the table
pavelzzz: checks
LinkyStinky: bets $30
EPiPeN11 joins the table at seat #8
pavelzzz: raises $102 to $132
LinkyStinky: calls $102
*** RIVER *** 
pavelzzz: bets $150
LinkyStinky: raises $150 to $300
pavelzzz: ??
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Posted Fri Dec 08, 2006 10:49 pm GMT by aaronw
His bet on the turn is ridiculously weak. I think it is also scary that he called your massive re-raise there. I think it is possibly that he has a hand like AT or something like that. He may have flopped a set and is trying to keep you in the pot with the small bet on the turn. And I will say it one more time I absolutely despise the min-raise. I think we have to call here because we are getting pretty good odds. I don't think we will have the best hand very often here though. So you called and he showed you what?
Edit there is 633 in the pot and it costs you $150 to call. IE- 4.22:1 odds to call.
Posted Fri Dec 08, 2006 10:52 pm GMT by zinn0
fold.
Posted Fri Dec 08, 2006 11:44 pm GMT by Jauron
In my experience we're not often ahead the way it was played against most players.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 3:10 am GMT by MrDarling
without any reads? Hard call.
The turn bet is weak but the reraise is not massive. Pot was $103 in the turn. dude bet 1/3 pot. Supa raised him 3X .
First, it is pretty obvious the 3 didn't help Supa so the C/R is not that scary (unless you think Supa is the kind of player to raise with 3 pf. I don't)
Now, with reads on Supa, dude might play this hand the same if he did hit the flop. Say 89, 9T, TJ etc... Would he really call a pf raise with AT? well, he shouldn't. 
So, hand that beat us : AT(2,3, or 8), T's, 8's, 2's, 3's, T8, 23 and a stronger A.
Which of this hands will he call a pf raise with and not raise the flop?
8's, 2's or T8.
Can he really play AT like that without checking if Supa is holding an overpair?
Now which hand do we beat that he'll play like that?
JT, T9, 98, 87 - but do you reraise the river with these hands?
Maybe against Supa you do...
I think we are behind. If he is a decent player, we're behind a set.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 3:56 am GMT by supafrey
what are your thoughts on how i played each street, btw?
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 5:04 am GMT by MrDarling
I am not even getting close to understand most of your moves here Supa.
But I do have few questions, remarks :
1. The pf raise from the co is obvious a semibluff attempt at the pot. you are not seriously value betting here are you?
2. was there any point in this hand you really felt you are ahead?
3. I don't really understand the c/r on the turn. Is it a move you'd sometime do/see in these levels with a made strong hand? Will you c/r the turn with ovair pairs after leading the flop?
I can understand this if a scare card come, or any card that can actually help you, but on a bluff?
4. why not check call the river? was your bet a kind of a blocking bet?
5. what kind of a hand did you put him on?
did you call?
danny
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 11:21 am GMT by supafrey
| MrDarling wrote: | I don't like all of your questions but I will answer each one and then post a couple thoughts...
1. The pf raise from the co is obvious a semibluff attempt at the pot. you are not seriously value betting here are you? Semibluff/value are not really considerations I have preflop. I have an ace. They're suited. It's late position and I'm a verrrry loose player. From just before the button (a commonly known/used/exploited/3-bet steal position) my A9 is a much better holding than I usually have from this steal spot... People may know this and overplay when I actually hit an ace =P
2. was there any point in this hand you really felt you are ahead? Irrelevant question. I'll say the river. Sort of. Twice.
3. I don't really understand the c/r on the turn. Is it a move you'd sometime do/see in these levels with a made strong hand? Will you c/r the turn with ovair pairs after leading the flop? BINGO
I can understand this if a scare card come, or any card that can actually help you, but on a bluff?
4. why not check call the river? was your bet a kind of a blocking bet?
Yes and no. Yes, I'd much rather prefer that I just get a call at this point. A call probably means an annoyed overpair that just got sucked out on, maybe a weak two pair that I wouldn't want pushing. When people see the Ace come out with a sharty 2 pair they OCCASIONALLY put me on a better two pair and really slow down. If I had checked the river, alot of 2 pairs would just plain push at the sign of hesitation. This puts me in a tricky spot where I'm unsure whether to call. Alot of smart bluffers (this is 600nl, so not toooo many people bluff - but a bunch are smart enough to) would open push the river too. I don't want to be stuck deciding whether the person is playing me straight or playing entirely off of my weakness
5. what kind of a hand did you put him on?
I couldn't put him on a hand. That was both the problem and the solution for me.
did you call?
Yes I did.
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My thoughts during the hand, order:
Preflop:
Oh it's folded to me. I better raise. Wait I should check my cards. A9s. Yeah that's good enough for people not to expect it. *raises standard amount* Oh a call. Damnit he has position. I wonder if he's just calling because he has position. Maybe. That is linky.. he's pretty average.
Flop comes:
Okay continuation bet. *bets 30*. Darn he called. I wonder if he's just using position.
Turn comes:
Hrms. Something's weird. overpair that just called pre? sneaky sneaky. would still raise the flop probably. or here maybe. AT in pos? No reraise? hrms.. no. set no. well maybe I guess. Lets find out. Lets act like the overpair. I've got the flush draw atleast as outs. Maybe the ace.*checks* *linky raises* Hrms. smallish. lets pump it atleast higher than the pot already was to make it look size-able. *raises* *linky calls*. Hrms.. Hope a spade comes.
River comes:
Okay. That's... not.. horrible. I think. I've got top pair. I'd be silly not to get value from the overpair. What else could he have? AT? With one of the last aces and the t? Calling me in pos? I can't put this guy on a hand. I dont want to let people bluff me out of this. I've got top pair.. I could be betting for value... I STILL don't know if he was doing this all just because of position... j9s? errrr.. okay. I better bet and make some money off of overpairs. Maybe he'd even just fold. He's betting no matter what if I check probably. If he pushes I can tell myself he just had the set from the start and maybe save myself the last couple hundred... *raises* ... *link minraises* what the balls would min raise. Okay I've got great odds. I dooo have a 2-3 out top pair. I'm beating overpairs, busted flush draws, J9, JT... a set would just push, no?! yeah. ditto AT, probably. AND I CAN'T PUT HIM ON A HAND, except for sets? why do those seem unlikely if he had position? TT would reraise pre. Maybe push turn. Low set also pushes or reraises turn. I've got to call.
Critiques?
Remember this IS 600nl...
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 11:49 am GMT by aaronw
I think I have to agree with you for the most part, supa. I think he could easily have a hand like AT here or maybe even KT or JT or a busted straight draw. I think you have to call because there are a few hands that you beat and I am sure that you will be right here 1 in 5.22 times. What did he have?
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 12:35 pm GMT by MrDarling
nice, supa. I really like reading that.
in my original post I eliminated the T's as well. So I'm not that far off.
Let me just make things straight incase you didn't get it : I am NOT critiquing you. I'm trying to learn with these questions.
I am still a losing player and though I think I have great potential to one day bust your ass, I'm still far from this day :p
1. I think I understand . I now play short hand table and will often raise with almost any A from button and cut off. So yeah, could be you have the best hand with only 3 to act behind.
2. Really not important? Do we actually sense weakness from villain? Beside his weak turn bet he is very stubborn sticking to this pot . Its nice to think/know if we are ahead.
3. Its a nice move. however how often they simply check behind again? But yeah, I can see this as a strong move - I'm going to steal it
Thanks again for sharing this hand. Regard less of the outcome, its nice to see the moves and thoughts of better players.
Now that you talked about it, I can see him holding 9's as well...
btw, what do you think about my original hand analyze ?
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 12:44 pm GMT by Jauron
The combination of calling the check raise on the turn and then mini raising on the river makes me think he needs at least two pair and even then top two. Unless the player is tricky or down right silly, consider what hero could have that he wouldn't call the mini raise at the end with. It certainly looks like he wants a call at the end.
I don't see just the 10 doing this, and I don't see any reason QQ or KK would reraise on the river since they'd have to fold to an all-in. IMO we're running out of hands we can beat here unless villain is tricky enough to make this move with a wide range of hands including busted draws. We can't beat many Aces here.
I don't blame you for wanting to call, and it's certainly possible we're ahead I just don't think it's very likely.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:09 pm GMT by supafrey
yeah but good thing we're trying to win money, not pots, right?
not likely is still probably many more times than 1/4-1/5, no?
Mr darling:
About the irrelevant whether we're winning or not until the river.... You realize we have a draw, right? Not to mention the fact that most of this hand could still be entirely image/position at work... alot of it may just be who fires the last bullet or hits their nuts....
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:41 pm GMT by shorn7
Hmmm. I like everything except the river bet. Your hand doesn't want to call a raise really (even a small one), so betting here opens villain up to potentially steal. I would rather potentially sacrifice a bit of value from JJ-KK and get a cheaper showdown so I don't lose all my equity in the pot when I have to fold. The baord isn't really drawy (except for J9), so it sure doesn't smell like a busted draw.
Unfortunately, his raise is too small for you to fold. If I had to guess, villain most likely has 1 of three hands: AT, 22, or 88 none of which we beat. So, we call and are most likely unhappy to have bet the river in the first place.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:49 pm GMT by supafrey
why would a bet make us more open to a steal then just checking and showing weakness. you also didn't clarify if you'd call a river raise then, if we did check oop. or whether you'd call a river push?
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 2:59 pm GMT by Jauron
| supafrey wrote: |
not likely is still probably many more times than 1/4-1/5, no?
/i |
Not sure I agree, but it probably depends on the player. What hands do we feel we can beat here the way it was played?
I'm obviously missing something, spoon feed it to me.
Posted Sat Dec 09, 2006 5:36 pm GMT by supafrey
Well we have top pair. River'd top pair. That's usually good for 1/5 as it is...
Also - if we can barely put them on a hand that usually means something funny is up, on occasion, no?
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 9:40 am GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | | why would a bet make us more open to a steal then just checking and showing weakness. you also didn't clarify if you'd call a river raise then, if we did check oop. or whether you'd call a river push? |
It doesn't. But, it keeps the pot a bit smaller so any bet we have to call is smaller as well. I think a check is actually stronger than a weak bet here because it could mean monster as well. A weak bet doesn't say that.
I would base my calling decision (after an open check) on the size of the bet from villain. I seriously doubt I would call a river push given the way the action has gone. This isn't adraw heavy board so what hands do you possibly think villain could have here that would have played this way until the river that you can beat?
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 4:45 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Of all the hands you're value raising on the turn very few like this river. From his point of view your hand was either a bluff or is now much weaker than it was. This explains why he'd be likely to bluff raise the river.
Explaining why he'd call the turn is tough.
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 4:53 pm GMT by TheSalche
This looks like a really slowplayed monster to me, set of dueces or something.
I suppose you should bet the river because that is your style, and checking here would look weird to an observant player. But I'd prefer a check/call to pick off a bluff and to get away from this hand cheaper.
Cold calling that check/raise is REALLY scary. Obv. he doesn't have the ace of spades ... I really can't see any hand that we beat doing this. I think we have to fold here, especially for how deep of a stack we have.
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 8:59 pm GMT by supafrey
mmm okay. good discussion guys.
results are obv. irrelevant.
see you next bat time.
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:18 pm GMT by TheSalche
results may be somewhat important in trying to help us understand exactly what was going on in this guy's head, and to examine the difference between a 3/6 NL making this move and a .25/.5 NL player making this move
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:19 pm GMT by supafrey
I'm not sure that the results would really help us understand very much. It's very "creative" play.
I've been hesitant to give away too much about the results from right off the bat, for some reason. I'm not sure why.
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:21 pm GMT by TheSalche
i suppose my point is with results being given in a hand, its important they aren't seen until after some healthy discussion and then results could help out
i would say this was a creative play by him, regardless of if he has the stone cold nuts or duece trey off
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:24 pm GMT by TheSalche
just as i said stone cold nuts i thought "hmm what were they"
then i realized they were AA ... and somehow that hand makes sense
I suppose if we assume villain has seen some of supa's play and other people's at this limit, he would think they can be quite aggressive.
He calls your flop bet as a slowplay.
Wanted to raise the turn but instead had to bet/call anyway.
River's the nuts and min-raises for 'value' since he thinks if he raises too much he isn't giving you good enough pot odds to call
Posted Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:48 pm GMT by exit music
Aces is a possibility here. I have been thinking he has something like A8s.
One of those two hands, or you have him beat. I doubt he'd play TP that way, I doubt he'd play a set that way. Kings are a good possibility, although the re-raise on the river is plain moronic.
My gut says A8. Based on your loose reputation, I can see him calling a CR with second pair, and then min-raising for value on the river.
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