Posted Tue Dec 12, 2006 9:11 pm GMT by mackkie
Playing live at foxwoods. 1/2 Blinds, I am sitting with $330 in chips, and the avg. stack is about $225 or so.
A little info about 3 hands I won in the last 5 minutes that will help players get a better read on me.
1. Trippled up with KK to about $125 with 3 people in the pot
2. Next hand won a ~$95 pot with A10 against a call station, 3-4 people in for $15 pre flop. Flop comes 334 i bet $25 after the flop. A 7 on the turn, I make it $55 and he folds.
3. I get AKh next hand, make it $15 to go UTG, 3 callers. Flop 4 6 8 rainbow. I bet $25 and everyone but Villian 1 folds. Next card is a 5. He leads out for $30, I re-raise to $60 because I thought he was full of crap, he calls. We check the river, he flips over AQ and I take the pot down.
With that said, about 10 minutes later I face the same Villian. I get AJ and make it $15 to go. 3 callers.
Flop comes J 8 6 rainbow
I bet $25, Villian calls, other guy calls too.
Turn: 2 - two spades on the board now
I bet $50, Villian re-raises for $150 total (he is all in). other guy folds.
At this point I have roughly $100 in the pot and its another $100 for my top pair top kicker.
I was convinced he did not have 2 pair at this point because he would have to be absolutely nuts to play cards that would give him 2 pair right now. I thought the most likely possibility was a set or KJ.
I then thought that he just saw me bluff at 2 big pots and take them both down with $50-60 bets each time. I thought he could possibly be sick of me trying to bluff at pots and make a stand.
Now that you know the last few hands I won and what I was thinking, tell me what you would do. (Keep it mind it took him 15 minutes to lose $200 and this was his first rebuy).
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Posted Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:31 pm GMT by Ciso_B
Usually Id give villain credit for a flopped set, 66 or 88. He could think you might fold and have a hand like 10s 9s though, flop open ended turn flush draw. Doesnt want to go calling big turn bet just to fold so if he senses weakness he could push ott and either get lucky or get u to fold.
Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:17 am GMT by Phil14312
I think judging from the last couple times where you showed down your AKs, its almost a must call here. I think he's got something like 88 or 99 and thinks his hand is good.
Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:39 am GMT by daycri
Hmm, although the previous play leads him to believe a bet like you made might be full of it, he was still the first to call your large preflop raise, taking a lot of his bluffing hands he could have now away. Is your ace a spade? if yes, that takes some of my hands away.. AK  , AQ , that he might have ran into a flush to semibluff you with. Calling on that weak board and then reraising a push, just screams a set..
I lay this down, based on the theory that it takes too long to think of hands he could try this play with. Gambling that he is getting gutsy with a mid pocket pair that missed is not a move I'm making.
let me guess he has something goofy like 910 's
Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:41 am GMT by exit music
You're probably beat here. Despite the size of the pot, 100 is a large chunk of change.
My best guess is that since he's seen you make big re-raises with nothing a couple times before, he would probably want to slow-play a decent pair preflop. I think he either has QQ or he's got a low set. I doubt it, but there's even a chance he was splasing around in the pot with a junky 2-pair here. Because of the fact that he's had position on you, I can easily see him slowplaying an overpair or a set against you and he got impatient and pulled the trigger on the turn b/c you are representing such strength.
There is 320 in the pot and it's only 100 to call, so you are getting pretty good odds here, which alone are a pretty good reason to call, but if you're an underdog in this pot you really don't have very many outs.
Anyways, I don't think there enough hands you could be up against that you are leading against which justify a call here. There is even a 3rd person in the pot, so he's even less likely to be shoving the pot with a mid pair or some shit like this.
However, you are probably a little worse than a coin-flip to have the best hand here. Because of the 3:1, calling is alright.
I would save 100$ and fold to find a better spot when I have position on the hand and can put my money in smartly when I have position and a much better idea of where I stand in the pot.
Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 1:55 pm GMT by mackkie
| exit music wrote: |
I think he either has QQ or he's got a low set. |
Ding ding ding, we got a winner!
I called the $100 fully expecting to see a set of 8's, but he flipped over QQ. I was pretty surprised he flipped those over, I cant tell if i played the hand horribly or if he played it great. Making the call there i really did expect to see KJ or QJ and him making a stand against what he thought was another bluff i was trying to pull.
Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:34 pm GMT by exit music
| mackkie wrote: |
Ding ding ding, we got a winner!
I called the $100 fully expecting to see a set of 8's, but he flipped over QQ. I was pretty surprised he flipped those over, I cant tell if i played the hand horribly or if he played it great. |
He played the hand pretty much perfectly, he got the straight draw to fold and TP to call, giving correct odds the whole way down. I can't really see any big mistake by you in calling the hand all the way down b/c you were never getting bad odds. Your biggest mistake was pricing yourself into this hand, you didn't leave yourself the option of folding if you were beat.
Maybe bet more on the flop to likely get heads up, and then check the turn to see exactly how much he likes his hand. You lost this hand b/c he had position on you.
Posted Thu Dec 14, 2006 11:12 am GMT by shorn7
I think this is an easy fold on the turn (in fact, I might have checked the turn here). You have shown strength three times and he pushes after that. No way top/top is good here and you could be drawing dead.
Posted Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:54 pm GMT by mackkie
Yeah, looking back on it i should have checked the turn, esp with 3 callers. I just wanted to get some draws outta there and my $50 bets drove people out prior, so i decided to keep the pressure on at the time.
Also not to mention that ive ran into this kid a few hands ago and about 3-4 months ago as well. He was not that great and a pretty loose player. I had a read on him and went with it, but i guess i was wrong this time.
EDIT: Also, I didnt mean to put this post in this section, because i thought it was a pretty basic question, its by no means advanced theory, but i guess it is and analysis
Posted Sat Dec 16, 2006 11:18 pm GMT by mackkie
I was also just thinking, any so-called good player should be able to get away from TPTK rather easily, agreed?
Given the situation and the $ in the pot, was this a really easy hand to get away from and end up $200 on the day instead of $100. I gotta admit a got a little greedy and knowing i was going to leave in like 10 minutes i thought i could take down a $450 pot and end up around 450-500 to the good for the day.
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