Starting Cards for Multiway Pot in Limit |
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Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 1:10 pm GMT by lwestatbus
This question applies to FL ring games.
How do you adjust your starting card requirements as the number of players in the pot preflop increases? I find myself about once an hour or so in late position with 4 or more players in the pot ahead of me and cards with some value but that I wouldn't normally play in early position. (E.g., offsuite middle connectors, 22-44, A(2-5) off suit.) The pot may or may not be raised.
I am making seat of the pants decisions on whether or not to gamble on one of these pots and am trying to find some 'science' to guide my actions. If I weren't so lazy I'd figure it out for myself but, unfortunately, lazy is the word of the day.
Had a wonderful hand last night. 65 off suit on the button with a raise by UTG, four additional callers to me, and the liklihood that BB would call. I played and flopped the OESD in a rainbow flop and made the straight on the river for a nice pot. (Opponents at showdown had pocket kings, pocket queens, and pocket sevens with a flopped set.)
Again, does anyone have any guidelines or opinions on adjusting starting hand requirements as the number of players in the pot goes up?
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Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:50 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
You seem to have the right general idea in that as the number of players in the pot increases, criteria for hand selection goes down because you are being compensated not only by the immediate pot odds, but also by the implied odds, as you saw with the 65 hand.
In big multiway pots, however, I still like to have hands that have a lot of ways to win, like suited connectors, or cards that can flop very powerful hands, like pocket pairs. In LP, I think that if the pot is sufficiently large, playing hands like even unsuited connectors is alright just on the chance that you flop two pair or better, or a straight draw that can win a lot of money. However, I would be careful in multiway pots with low connectors because if you're going to draw at the straight, you would prefer it be the NUT straight (notice with 65 you could end up with a 9-high straight and still lose very easily). I would also try to stay away from hands that are likely to be dominated (ie unsuited Ace-rag combinations), although it may be ok to play hands like KJ and QT, so long as you're capable of laying down when you flop only a pair instead of either a stronger hand (ie two pair+) or a powerful draw.
Posted Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:39 pm GMT by lwestatbus
OK, had a horribly boring meeting and worked out the following. Is it correct?
For unsuited connectors with enough room to make all possible straights (45 - TJ) I figure I have a combined probability of 19.3% to flop a major improvement to my hand (trips, 2 pr, or OESD).
2 pr: (3/50x3) x (3/49x2) = 2.2%
trips: (3/50x3) x (2/49x2) = 1.5%
oesd: (8/50x3) x (8/49x2) = 15.7%
For a total of 19.3% (some rounding in individual probabilities above).
This is actually under estimated a little as it doesn't include the probability of flopping quads (I've done to one hole card before), a boat, or the whole straight. Or an oesd and a pair, or an issd and a pair. And it needs to be discounted by the probability of losing despite the improvement. It may be correct to discount the oesd up front since it has only a 1/3 chance of coming through for you.
The real question then seems to be, if I would play these cards after the flop (which I would in the absence of some major scare), should I be willing to play unsuited connectors if I am getting 5:1 on my money preflop? (This way of asking the question seems to argue against discounting the value of a flopped oesd up front. That is, if I would be happy with an oesd on the flop I should be happy to gamble that I can flop one.)
This analysis could be wrong on two or three levels. The math could be screwed up (entirely likely). The two stage logic (gambling on the flop improvement instead of the whole hand) could be incorrect. And/or I could be seriously underestimating the impact of special cases not included in the analysis.
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