Posted Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:54 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
When you turn the nut straight 3 times, flop a boat, flush all get beat within a 3 hours span and drop 1/3 bankroll, what the hell is going on? Im starting to seriously question my play. All the straights were all in at the turn cause the villians had sets and rivered a boat on me. Flush was a higher flush so not a big deal and boat guy hit a 2 outer on me. Feals like a knife stabed into my self confidence.
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Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 3:04 am GMT by MrDarling
3 of your str8 run into sets that turned boats and you question your play?
There is only one way to play a nut str8 without real flush danger , and its to hope all money go in the middle. You can't play this better if you keep getting 2nd nut busted by the nut
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:38 am GMT by shorn7
I had a similar session last night. Got it all in with a set versus overpair and he caught runner runner wheel. Got it all in with a flush versus a set...runner runner boat. And got it all-in with AA vs. KTo with a K on the flop and he rivered a 3rd King.
Sometimes it just happens that way. All you can do is make the correct decisions at the time and then the cards fall as they do. Just keep in mind that for every 9-1 favorite you lose like this, you will win the next 9 (on average), so LT the $$ will roll in if you make your opponents make these large errors.
Bad variance always seems to come to me in bunches too. So, hang in there and keep making the correct moves and you will win back what you lost and then some.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 3:41 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
thanks Shorn, just needed a slap in the face with reality. Just kills me when I make the right play time and time again and get beat all within a short span of time.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:05 pm GMT by viking75ft
I have recently had 3 beats like this. I nutted flush on flop, bet then push. all times the villians were pocket pair with set on the board. I put them on their sets, but river boated them all three times. What math are these guys using to rationalize calling with a flush on the board? 2 of these were sng and the last was ring game. Is this bad playing on my part or just the "due" factor" for them? I play tight aggressive with moderate semis here and there. I've been accused of not having a bluff game by a few villians in the past, but in reality, I pulled semis off every 6 to 9 hands. I typically bet the same amount historically to keep them guessing. I recently changed this to pushing the flop on the nuts thinking to my self that I will get run down if I slow play? The sng are $5 or > NL and the rings are .10/.25 NL.
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:05 am GMT by shorn7
Viking-
It is a combination of the math and the fact that they might think you are bluffing or semi-bluffing with a big flush card. Specifically, a set is a 66/34 dog to a made flush on the flop, so the pot needs only offer villain around 2-1 to make it a 0 EV call. Add to that the fact that they might be ahead or you might be bluffing, and they can profitably call all the way dow to 1.25-1 or so.
Don't let yourself be fooled by the results of the hand. You WANT to get it all-in with a made flush on the flop (unless you are really deep and you think your opponent has a better flush). It is just bad variance that will even out over time and as I said above, it seems to bunch together a lot (at least for me).
Shorn
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:45 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
Lets add anpter 2 times today were I had the nut straight on turn and 2 people rivered boats on me. Is this ever going to end
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:46 pm GMT by supafrey
no
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