Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:58 am GMT by zinn0
50NL
Villain is unknown. 30/7/10 over 40 hands.
Stacks:
BB $42
UTG (villain) $26
Hero $ $86
Hero is otb w/AQs
UTG raises 4x making it $2 to go.
Folds to our hero who calls.
Sb folds and BB calls.
Pot ~$6
Flop:
7s 9s 5h
BB checks, Villain bets $1. Hero raises $4 more making it $5 to go hoping to take the pot down right here. BB folds and Villain calls. I'm not exactly sure what to put him on here.
Pot~ $16
Turn:
Qd
Villain checks, and hero is now confused. I went from wanting to take the pot down on the flop to now wondering how I can get the rest of Villains stack into the middle. Is my thinking off? Any suggestions on how to coax Villain to put the rest of his stack in here?
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Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:13 pm GMT by supafrey
That board is pretty draw heavy. If it was slightly less so, I could see maybe checking behind and raising his river bluff because we showed such weakness.
But there's too many flush and straight draws and other BS out there that wants to see a river and is willing to pay for it - when they miss the river, chances are they'll call little to nothing. Bet 60-75% pot.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:38 pm GMT by aaronw
| supafrey wrote: | That board is pretty draw heavy. If it was slightly less so, I could see maybe checking behind and raising his river bluff because we showed such weakness.
But there's too many flush and straight draws and other BS out there that wants to see a river and is willing to pay for it - when they miss the river, chances are they'll call little to nothing. Bet 60-75% pot. |
I am pretty sure that he has a flush draw himself so I don't think villain drawing to a flush is a problem. However, I do agree what betting about 3/4 of the pot is best here.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:41 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| aaronw wrote: | | I am pretty sure that he has a flush draw himself so I don't think villain drawing to a flush is a problem. |
I don't believe he meant it was a problem. The point was you have to get money in now while villain still has something worth paying for. If he whiffs the river, you're not getting a dime.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:57 pm GMT by aaronw
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | I am pretty sure that he has a flush draw himself so I don't think villain drawing to a flush is a problem. |
I don't believe he meant it was a problem. The point was you have to get money in now while villain still has something worth paying for. If he whiffs the river, you're not getting a dime. |
That makes complete sense! Never really thought of it like that. However, if he misses, he is likely to bluff into us on the river. And if he makes it, we have a better flush. But betting is the better option.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:54 pm GMT by Skribbles
I want all my money in here. TPTK w/ the nut flush draw. Villian has $19 left so a turn bet of $8-9 will either entice a push or a fold. Can't see him just calling off half his stack here.
I really don't think checking behind is good unless you put him on KK AA or a set.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:39 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
If I understand correctly, you have A  Q for the nut flush draw, yes?
If so, then I probably try to get him to put in an amount that will put him to a push/fold decision. Even half the pot at this point probably forces to him to that decision (he should have around $19 if I read right). I think supa's advice is solid... 60-75% of the pot should do the trick, and it's a reasonable bet for value.
Given stack sizes, what villain has is no longer of enormous interest to me. By making a significant bet on the turn, pot odds will compel me to call a push on the river a good portion of the time. With TPTK + nut flush draw, I say it's time to go to war... I don't see many holdings he can have such that he will raise 4x BB UTG and still have a straight/straight-draw that fits that board (esp. since he has only a half stack, and this is $50 NL where players aren't that tricky), but it's not entirely out of the question (88 is a possibility, I suppose).
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:45 pm GMT by zinn0
Yes, I am on the nut flush draw with tptk. Villain has ~$18 left.
Am I out of line with wanting to get him all-in at this point?
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:48 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| zinn0 wrote: | Yes, I am on the nut flush draw with tptk. Villain has ~$18 left.
Am I out of line with wanting to get him all-in at this point? |
No, I don't think so. I bet with the intention of calling a push, and I'm putting him all-in on most rivers, even those without a spade.
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:56 pm GMT by shorn7
OK, i will play devil's advocate here and say I prefer a check here. If I recall, Villain raise preflop, correct? What flush draw do we put him on when we hold two of the big flush cards? I don't see it.
I think it is much more likely that villain has a pair (perhpas lower than Queens, perhaps not), or something like AK with the Ks. If that is the case, then I think it is better to show weakness now and hope he bluffs the river. This way, if we are behind, then we save $$ by not having to call a push and if we are ahead, then villain has few outs to catch up and may bluff the river which we can call.
The best scenarion would be for villain to hold AK here and catch an Ace on the end. Then we get the rest.
Thoughts?
Posted Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:09 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Interesting take, shorn. The only problem I have with that is that villain called our $4 raise on the flop, telling me he has something, maybe something he's willing to go with.
Even if he has AK and hits the end, it might be hard to get the entire stack (but good chance we still will). That's why I prefer to at least get some of his money in on 4th. If he folds, so be it.
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:43 am GMT by supafrey
There's alot of draws out there, shorn. AK has 5 outs to improve their hand, and more than half of those beat us. That best "scenario" is one that will most likely not happen. Instead they'll either hit their draw or check down their weak overpair that doesn't beat our queen. So we don't get any serious money from them, and a bluff is definitely not gauranteed.
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:19 am GMT by shorn7
If I read the board correctly, AK has 3 outs total (7s 9s 5h Qd; no str8 possible and we hold an Ace for better two pair) and an underpair to our Queen has 2 outs. So, while I agree that the bluff is not necessarily guaranteed here, I like using our position to potentially induce one since we have the nut draw. Also, by checking behind, we basically indicate that we didn't like the Queen either and that might also induce a river bluff. I mean, what carda are we really scared of on the river? K, ok unless it is the Ks. J? Maybe.
Also, what hand will villain legitimately call with that we beat now after he calls the flop raise and checks the turn? I can think of maybe only one...JJ. So, IMO betting the turn here is marginally -EV because he will fold many hands that we don't want him to fold, call with one (maybe), and push with hands that we lose to (sets, overpairs, etc.). I don't know about you, but I am not thrilled to call a push on the turn here even with the 8 clean outs to the nuts.
Betting here gives villain the additional choice of negating our positional advantage with a push. I don't want to give that away. If a blank comes on the river and he checks again, then maybe we can value bet our Queen and get a weker hand to call.
All in all, I think a check on the turn is the more +EV play on this one. But I suspect we will have to agree to disagree. 
Shorn
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 11:05 am GMT by supafrey
You're misinterpreting what I'm saying.
1. I mentioned this play from the very beginning. It's not horrible in that I imagine you won't lose very much from it from potential winnings.
2. I said AK has 5 outs to improve, not win. That includes the last two aces. This was in reference to how many cards they would be betting into us with and still thinking they were winning / would call our raise.
3. The pot will be very small on the river. The extra "bluff" bet we get is going to be a fraction of that small pot - when we raise, they're going to easily muck their missed straight/flush draw/2nd pair ... If they had a real hand they'd call our reraise, but with this draw heavy board and the action thus far there's no reason to assume they do.
4. A draw is willing on call on the turn, and should we hit the lucky monster over monster the pot will be even larger for us to get a full stack from, etc. Not just winning that small bluff bet, we instead have a chance to win a "big pot".
i win
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:53 pm GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | 4. A draw is willing on call on the turn, and should we hit the lucky monster over monster the pot will be even larger for us to get a full stack from, etc. Not just winning that small bluff bet, we instead have a chance to win a "big pot".
i win |
Again, what raising hand would have the draw you say is there? It has to be a flush draw since no card can come that would make a legit raising hand a str8.
And you don't win...we disagree. There's a difference.
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:48 pm GMT by supafrey
You smell like boiled cabbage.
Posted Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:52 pm GMT by shorn7
Nice and succinct, as always.
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