What do you think she had? 2/5 NL |
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Posted Sat Dec 23, 2006 10:37 am GMT by raisebot
2/5 NL, $500 cap
RedRock Casino Las Vegas
I just sat down, bought in for $400, no real impressions on how anyone was playing yet, other than my first hand, on my BB, I picked up AQo, 3 limpers, on my option I raised it to $20, everyone folded- that was about all the info I had. 
Next hand, on my SB, I picked up QQ. 2 limpers, then a lady 2 before the button raises to $20, button calls, I reraise make it $75 to go. Folded to the initial raiser, who calls, button also calls. Flop comes 7 high rainbow, I come out with a $200 bet. Lady reraises all in, button folds. I call, neither of us turn up our cards. Turn is an 8, river another Q to make my set. She doesn't yet show her hand, and I don't want to slowroll, so I just show my pocket Q's and she mucks.
Playing for a little while longer, I see she is very aggressive preflop, especially with high pocket pairs.
I ask her later if she flopped a set that hand, and she says "overpair". I asked if they were pocket Jacks which is pretty much what I suspected all along, but she insisted she had pocket kings. I seriously doubt it for a few reasons. First, I think she would have made it more than $20 on her initial raise , since there were already 2 limpers, and also the button and blinds yet to act. Second, if she had kings, after I reraised her to $75, I'm sure she would have reraised me back (she had approx $600 at the start of the hand). Third, after her push and my insta-call on the flop, I'm sure she would have confidently showed her pocket Kings immediately, as she didn't seem the type to slowroll. And lastly, if I did happen to "river" her, I bet she would have shown her Kings to maybe get some sympathy and respect from the rest of the table (as in she "made the right play" on the flop).
I'm just curious if anyone thinks I may be way off here, and maybe I did make a bad call. I'm pretty sure I made the right choice, and ultimately I did win the pot so this is really all kind of irrelevant, but does anyone see anything I might be missing here, or anything wrong I might have did?
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Posted Sat Dec 23, 2006 11:20 am GMT by aaronw
That analysis sounds about right to me. When I first read the hand, I was thinking she had an overpair like TT or JJ. I think if she had KK PF she probably would have re-raised your raise, but I could be wrong. She did have position, so maybe she decided to just call and see a flop. I think you are right though in the fact that she probably would have showed her KK if you did indeed hit your 2 outer. I think she had JJ or TT.
Posted Sat Dec 23, 2006 1:55 pm GMT by shorn7
I think your call was fine, but be careful to assign the likelihood of specifically one hand or another. A lot of players (myself included sometimes) will smooth call a re-raise with KK for deception, so there is no guarantee that she had JJ instead. In fact, I would lay the odds at 60/40 AA-KK vs. JJ.
Posted Sat Dec 23, 2006 2:11 pm GMT by groton
Im going say JJ or TT
Posted Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:22 am GMT by mortaleclipse
Shorn I think you are correct however with this player the likely hood of her smooth calling is slim to none. It was a read he picked up on her that she would make raises with kings or aces preflop and a smooth call didnt happen with this player. I can never bring myself to smoth call with aces or kings. My mind tells me to raise raise raise 
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