Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:56 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
I've been getting some good cards on this table, so my image may be a little loose. I've been caught continuation betting twice in the first 40 minutes of play. My last big hand was an all-in pre-flop showdown of my KK vs. AK, which I won.
PokerStars Game #7778434166: Tournament #39376515, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em
No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/01/05 - 13:37:47 (ET)
Table '39376515 27' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: THAYNEB (3135 in chips)
Seat 3: Totter99 (2090 in chips)
Seat 4: 72AllinCrew (4195 in chips)
Seat 5: remoney (1895 in chips)
Seat 6: DOXBURGER (1940 in chips)
Seat 7: keymn (2330 in chips)
Seat 8: p3rcy (1325 in chips)
Seat 9: Kalbelgarion (1895 in chips)
p3rcy: posts small blind 25
Kalbelgarion: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kalbelgarion  
THAYNEB: folds
darkflush is connected
Totter99: folds
72AllinCrew: raises 100 to 150
remoney: calls 150
DOXBURGER: folds
keymn: folds
p3rcy: folds
Kalbelgarion: raises 350 to 500
72AllinCrew: folds
remoney: calls 350
*** FLOP ***   
Kalbelgarion: ???
This seems like an ideal flop for my Queens--All under cards. I put him on 77-JJ, or QJ, KQ, or AT-AK. KK and AA aren't off the table. Of course, I've seen people call off 1/3rd of their stack pre-flop with some awful crap, so I would be outraged, but not that surprised if he had 42o.
The pot's at 1175, and I have about 1300 left in my stack. I was thinking about pushing here, but wouldn't over cards fold to a bet of 600 just as well as they'd fold to a bet of 1300? Should I be worried about giving a possible flush draw the correct odds against one person?
So do I push or bet 600? Or another amount?
Thanks for the help.
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Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:09 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I think even 600 might be a bit much...maybe 450? Assuming villain calls, that'll still leave you with 850 to push with on the turn with the pot around 2100. You should be able to protect both streets this way.
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:30 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
The only problem I would have with putting 450 into the pot is the good odds it would give the villain. He would have to put in 450 for a 1625 pot, or about 3.6:1 when he has about a one-in-three chance of catching his flush or open-ended straight if he were shooting for one of those (Two spades or A3 are very plausible hands).
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:59 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Kalbelgarion wrote: | | The only problem I would have with putting 450 into the pot is the good odds it would give the villain. He would have to put in 450 for a 1625 pot, or about 3.6:1 when he has about a one-in-three chance of catching his flush or open-ended straight if he were shooting for one of those (Two spades or A3 are very plausible hands). |
I direct you to the entry for 9 outs...
Assuming a flush draw, he has ~2:1 shot calling an all-in now, but he only has a 4:1 chance on each card.
By betting 450, you make it incorrect to call the flop, and it leaves you enough behind to make it incorrect to call a turn push if he whiffs.
Now, this isn't directed solely at you (you just happened to be the one who pushed my pet peeve button), but you really need to have a better understanding of the differences between the odds for individual cards and those for the turn and river combined. So many bad mistakes happen because people think they're better/worse off than they really are.
*edit* A3 is not an OESD, unless the wrap-around straight is in play. *edit*
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:16 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
Okay, I understand. So he only has a 19% chance of making his straight/flush on the turn (although, like you said, I was mistaken about the straight draw and it's much less likely he's sitting on 3 5). That makes it so that the most he can correctly call with nine outs is about 1/5th the pot, or about 325.
So when I'm setting the odds for people to make calls on their draws, I should keep in mind that they're paying only to see the Turn card, and that they'll generally have to pay even more to see the River. Unless, of course, an all-in is involved.
This should save me a great deal of chips so that in the future, I'll put in 450 instead of 600 and risk fewer chips in these situations. Thanks for the tip.
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:49 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Kalbelgarion wrote: | | So when I'm setting the odds for people to make calls on their draws, I should keep in mind that they're paying only to see the Turn card, and that they'll generally have to pay even more to see the River. Unless, of course, an all-in is involved. |
Bingo. This is one of the reasons why controlling pot size in NL is so important. If you don't size your bets correctly, you run the risk of being unable to properly protect a vulnerable hand on later streets.
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:04 pm GMT by Gunslinger
| Kalbelgarion wrote: | | So he only has a 19% chance of making his straight/flush on the turn... That makes it so that the most he can correctly call with nine outs is about 1/5th the pot, or about 325. |
No, 4:1 odds against him means he can call correctly up to one-third of the pot, not one-fifth. If you bet 1/3rd, you are laying him exactly 4:1 odds, which is why Sean suggests a bet of 450, which is a little higher than 1/3 so his call would be incorrect.
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:24 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
Wait...simply stated, if he has a 20% chance of making his hand on the turn, then he can pay up to 20% of the pot to see that card.
For example, if the pot if 800, and I bet 200, the villain would have the correct odds to call 200 into a pot that is now 1000 (800+ my 200). If I bet more than 200, then he no longer has the correct odds to call.
If he has x% chance of making his hand on the next card, then he can call x% of the total of the pot + my bet. That's pretty basic poker reasoning, right?
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:34 pm GMT by Jauron
There is no reason to think he has a draw though and if he does he has overs as well, increasing his oods.
If he has a PP 55-jj he might call nearly any reasonable bet, I don't know that AK-A10 without the draw would call much of anything.
I'd prefer a bet of 600-700 to get him set up for the turn push. If he folds I don't know that 450 was going to keep him in anyways. If he does have AK of spades he's got the odds to call even the push. Even a bet of 450 is going to make it hard for us to get away from our hand now, given that I prefer the bigger of two bet options.
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:56 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Jauron wrote: | | I'd prefer a bet of 600-700 to get him set up for the turn push. If he folds I don't know that 450 was going to keep him in anyways. If he does have AK of spades he's got the odds to call even the push. Even a bet of 450 is going to make it hard for us to get away from our hand now, given that I prefer the bigger of two bet options. |
I think 450, assuming we get called, makes a turn push for our remaining 850 just as easy as a 600-700 flop bet.
I also don't think we're getting away from this hand without an A or K falling on the turn anyway. If it does, I'd rather have 850 left than 600.
Posted Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:00 pm GMT by Jauron
I might not have been clear, I don't mean our push so much as his call of our push which is what we should be after here.
I'm looking to get enough of his chips in the pot that he almost feels compelled to call the push even with Ace high.
I do agree that the 450 bet lets us get away a little more easily (I had though when I posted the above the blinds were bigger, but I suppose we could be ok even if we folded). Are we worried about the overpair or are we going with this hand if he pushes?
If we were looking to control the pot size our raise preflop was a little too big at over 25%?
We're probably squabling over 150 chips here, and it's probably not even worth it... but I'm trying to see if there is something I'm missing.
Posted Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:47 am GMT by Jefecaminador
I don't really like betting 450 if your intention is to fold if an Ace or King peels off on the turn. We're taking much too big a risk of getting bluffed off the hand for a really big pot. Being out of position and check/folding is a very bad line in my opinion.
I'm fine with betting 450 though if you plan to push the turn regardless. I think the goal with this hand on this flop should be try to put all your chips in the middle and get called.
Posted Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:05 am GMT by TheSalche
IMO: you should push this flop, leaving a less than pot sized bet in your stack looks pretty silly ... if he's calling 450 - 600, he'll probably call the full stack and make a bigger mistake
Posted Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:51 am GMT by supafrey
I'd bet 400-600, and it's not really that close with any other decision.
Posted Sun Jan 07, 2007 5:32 pm GMT by Gunslinger
| Kalbelgarion wrote: | Wait...simply stated, if he has a 20% chance of making his hand on the turn, then he can pay up to 20% of the pot to see that card.
For example, if the pot if 800, and I bet 200, the villain would have the correct odds to call 200 into a pot that is now 1000 (800+ my 200). If I bet more than 200, then he no longer has the correct odds to call. |
No, Kalbelgarion, that is not right at all. If you bet 200 into a a pot of 800, you are correct that villain then has to call 200 to win 1000, but that means he is getting 5:1 for his money. If he is a 4:1 dog (20% chance of of making his hand on the next card), he is getting better odds than he needs to call. So, betting 20% of the pot is too low. To give him exactly 4:1 odds on his call, you would bet 1/3 of the pot. Do the math: Let's say the pot is 900, you bet 300, so villain has to call 300 to get 1200 (the pot 900 plus your 300 bet), so he is getting exactly 4:1 odds. You must bet more then 1/3 of the pot so he is getting incorrect odds to call.
| Kalbelgarion wrote: | | If he has x% chance of making his hand on the next card, then he can call x% of the total of the pot + my bet. That's pretty basic poker reasoning, right? |
This is incorrect as well. If villain has a 20% chance, he is a 4:1 dog, and accordingly he can call 25% of the total pot facing him. Look at my example above. If he calls 300 to win 1200, he loses 4 out of 5 times (80%), for a loss of (4 x 300) = 1200. He wins 1 out of 5 times (20%), and wins 1200, an equal amount. He wins and loses the same amount when you bet one-third of the pot and he a 20% chance of hitting. Do the math for various examples of the x% chance someone has to win vs. what fraction of the pot you must bet to give them incorrect odds, it is always greater than x% of the total pot (including your bet).
The rest of the great advice in this thread is how to plan your bets for BOTH streets so that villain would be making incorrect calls both times.
Posted Sun Jan 07, 2007 5:54 pm GMT by tame_deuces
We should also remember our negative implied odds, both from laying down the best hand or calling with the worst hand later - people often have a tendency to forget the first one.
Iow. if we are going to fold because a scare card hits we are inviting people to bluff us and if we are going to call when someone hits their draw we are offering bigger odds than we'll do with a mere bet as a defence.
Both these considerations will often justify a slightly (but not too much) larger bet at an early street, it is crude but it works as long as do not you get ridiculous (overbetting big, trying to shove people out of the pot etc).
Of course as any normally intelligent person understands these two considerations stands in direct conflict with another and is universally the reason why some sort of read (whether a general read or a specific one for this player) will always be an important part of poker, lest we become weak tight or payoff wizards.
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