Help me figure this stat out please. |
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Posted Sun Jan 07, 2007 3:19 am GMT by david_5675
Can someone help me figure out that lets say I have a pocket pair (3, 3) and I make a large bet and everyone folds except for one person who calls? Assuming that he does not have a pocket pair, what are the odds that he will pair one of his cards on the flop? Thank you for any help.
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Posted Sun Jan 07, 2007 4:50 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
32.4%, or approximately 2 to 1 against. So 67.6% of the time, he will pair neither of his hole cards.
You can get this by subtracting the chance of his pairing at LEAST one hole card from 1.
Thus the calculation is:
P = 1 - (44/50)(43/49)(42/48) = 0.324
Also, the odds of you flopping a set are 11.8%, or approximately 7.5 to 1 against.
P = 1 - (48/50)(47/49)(46/48) = 0.118
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 12:31 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Even though it wasn't in the original question you need to include the possibility that your caller already has a pair and that anything but 22 or 33 beats you.
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