Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:31 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
PokerStars Game #7827379599: Hold'em Pot Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/01/08 - 04:25:47 (ET)
Table 'Lynx III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: playhere2win ($179.35 in chips)
Seat 2: henrybulldog ($239.75 in chips)
Seat 3: zvuabipz ($39.70 in chips)
Seat 4: schickli ($196 in chips)
Seat 5: Turn_Prophet ($438.90 in chips)
Seat 7: DaEmbezzler ($195 in chips)
Seat 8: gosenators ($326.15 in chips)
Seat 9: Flageolet ($233.30 in chips)
Turn_Prophet: posts small blind $1
tomtom2: is sitting out
DaEmbezzler: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Turn_Prophet  
tomtom2 leaves the table
gosenators: raises $4 to $6
Flageolet: calls $6
playhere2win: folds
henrybulldog: folds
zvuabipz: folds
schickli: calls $6
Turn_Prophet: calls $5
DaEmbezzler: calls $4
*** FLOP ***   
Turn_Prophet: checks
DaEmbezzler: checks
gosenators: bets $20
Flageolet: calls $20
schickli: calls $20
glfnpkr joins the table at seat #6
Turn_Prophet: raises $108.50 to $128.50
DaEmbezzler: folds
gosenators: folds
Flageolet: raises $98.80 to $227.30 and is all-in
schickli: folds
Turn_Prophet: calls $98.80
*** TURN *** 
*** RIVER *** 
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Turn_Prophet: shows (a pair of Kings)
Flageolet: shows   (three of a kind, Deuces)
Flageolet collected $521.60 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $524.60 | Rake $3
Board
Seat 1: playhere2win folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: henrybulldog folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: zvuabipz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: schickli (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Turn_Prophet (small blind) showed and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 7: DaEmbezzler (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: gosenators folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Flageolet showed and won ($521.60) with three of a kind, Deuces
I don't see any possible way I can play it differently.
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Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:43 am GMT by MrDarling
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: |
I don't see any possible way I can play it differently. |
Fold preflop?
But other wise, I guess you are right. you had a very powerful draw, you're just a coin flip with A's or AK. Ahead on 2 pairs and a real dog only to a set...
Now, since you are only a coin flip at best, and you know you are not getting AK or 2 pair to fold and certainly not getting a set to fold. Isn't it better just to call? Or at least try to keep the pot smaller?
That said I had a similar hand last night. Called a raise with 97s in position. Flop came 9JK with 2 of my suit. checked to me. I bet, get raised. I figure I'm pretty even with TPTK so I reraise, he pushed I call.
dude had a str8 (raised with QTo) but this time I caught a lovely K of my suit to the flush. Needless to say dude started foaming 
Had I knew he had a str8 I probably shouldn't have called...
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 6:43 am GMT by tame_deuces
Looks fine to me. Poker happens.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 9:40 am GMT by aaronw
Fold pre-flop. Flop is standard. Not much you can do there. Better luck next time.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 9:44 am GMT by shorn7
Well you could simply call the $20 on the flop and then re-evaluate on the turn. Not saying I would do that, but you are getting proper immediate odds to hit your flush. This may prevent you getting all your $$ in completely dead against a set and a higher FD. I am not saying I don't like your play here (I do), but that is one thing you could have done.
I also might fold this to the raise preflop since you are OOP.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 11:16 am GMT by kingetje
I think i wouldve lead out here.... though the end result would probably be the same
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 12:46 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Destined you were. I like the way you played it. Preflop position isn't the best, but the odds were there for you to make the call. Some days the poker gods do not smile on you. That was just one of those hands. I had two very similar situations happen to me yesterday. I lost my stack both times, though on one the guy didn't hit his set 'til the river. Apparently I missed the gong signifying amateur hour.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 2:11 pm GMT by supafrey
preflop can go either way.
flop can go either way, but I usually play it your way due to my image.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:04 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: |
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Turn_Prophet
tomtom2 leaves the table
gosenators: raises $4 to $6
Flageolet: calls $6
playhere2win: folds
henrybulldog: folds
zvuabipz: folds
schickli: calls $6
Turn_Prophet: calls $5
DaEmbezzler: calls $4
*** FLOP ***
|
I agree with this call pre-flop. K10 is rarely a hand to raise with when you have this many in a pot but it is a good hand to just call a raise with when you have position.
| Quote: |
Turn_Prophet: checks
DaEmbezzler: checks
gosenators: bets $20
Flageolet: calls $20
schickli: calls $20
glfnpkr joins the table at seat #6
Turn_Prophet: raises $108.50 to $128.50
|
Here is where I get a little lost. I understand you have TPGK and a flush draw. A raise might be good to let you see where you stand but I can't see a raise that big. It has to be a dead giveaway to your hand strength. You want to protect something, that's what this raise tells me.
| Quote: |
Flageolet: raises $98.80 to $227.30 and is all-in
schickli: folds
Turn_Prophet: calls $98.80
|
This is where I would be worried that someone has KK, AK, KQ or a pp and made a set. I try never to risk all my stack with TPGK anymore. I once read where a wise man said, "Never risk your stack in a tournament or money game with just TP. If you can avoid this you'll find more often then not you'll come out on the winning end."
Now I see where Supa, Wench and a few others say you played it well. Fill me in why those who beleive it was played well think that way??.. 
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:23 pm GMT by Gunslinger
| UrAteUp wrote: |
| Quote: |
Flageolet: raises $98.80 to $227.30 and is all-in
schickli: folds
Turn_Prophet: calls $98.80
|
This is where I would be worried that someone has KK, AK, KQ or a pp and made a set. I try never to risk all my stack with TPGK anymore. I once read where a wise man said, "Never risk your stack in a tournament or money game with just TP. If you can avoid this you'll find more often then not you'll come out on the winning end." |
At this point in the hand, he only has to call $99 to win, I believe, around $424 in the pot. Even if he knows villain has a set, he is getting way more than the correct odds to call on his flush draw alone.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 7:11 pm GMT by MrDarling
| UrAteUp wrote: |
I agree with this call pre-flop. K10 is rarely a hand to raise with when you have this many in a pot but it is a good hand to just call a raise with when you have position. |
I don't often call the SB having position but this could be only me
| Quote: |
Now I see where Supa, Wench and a few others say you played it well. Fill me in why those who beleive it was played well think that way??.. |
He doesn't simply have TP, he have top pair with a hugh draw. Like stated above he his only a real dog to a set.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 7:14 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
When he reraised, I was about 90% sure I was up against a set. Even so, as Gunslinger said, I'm getting over double the odds I need to call with just a flush draw.
The reason the raise was so big, for one thing, was that this is Pot Limit, and that's the max I can raise... with this hand in NL I'd probably just push all-in. This move carries enormous fold equity, and even when called, you're usually not in bad shape.
Posted Mon Jan 08, 2007 9:47 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | When he reraised, I was about 90% sure I was up against a set. Even so, as Gunslinger said, I'm getting over double the odds I need to call with just a flush draw.
The reason the raise was so big, for one thing, was that this is Pot Limit, and that's the max I can raise... with this hand in NL I'd probably just push all-in. This move carries enormous fold equity, and even when called, you're usually not in bad shape. |
Ahhh...I got it now. I did not notice this was PL. Still my thinking if you are up against a set and make a move like that your still behind. Maybe it's just me but I would rather put all my chips in when I was sure I was ahead and not just getting the right odds. You did have major outs here and the odds say you should have called his bet. I personally just don't think I could or would pot raise here. I am a conservative nit though.
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 3:14 am GMT by MrDarling
You know, I thought about this last night.
I would have much rather do this move if I paired the second button or if my TP was not a K or A.
Its a raise pot, good chance AK is sitting there, so you're outs are actually less then if you paired your T, you can not count on the 2 K any more.
So seeing you are at best a little less then a coin flip, do you still push all of your money in?
In those levels, can people fold AK on this flop? Would you?
In a raised flop, with this flop you know you are against a flush draw, over pairs (A's) or a set, but like stated else where, can we really give set credit every time someone over bet?
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 4:08 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
The extra factor to be included, MrDarling, is fold equity. A significant portion of the time, our opponents will fold and we will win the pot outright, sometimes forcing a better hand to fold (especially KJ, KQ, and AK). Between that and all of our outs, this is usually a profitable move. The worst case scenario is the one we have here, where our opponent holds a set, and even then, we're less than a two-to-one underdog.
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 5:03 am GMT by exit music
PF is fine.
Flop... after a $20 raise and 2 overcalls, you have to assume some things:
-Someone can beat your pair
-Not everyone will fold if you push it
What is the value in re-raising? You have good pot-odds to chase your flush without getting fancy, and you have a decent 2-pair/trips draw to go along with the flush draw. You shouldn't consider this a made hand, you might be better off calling the flop and check-call the turn. Unless you make your hand, you can fold the river and hopefully not double him up.
Calling on the flop encourages a huge multi-way pot, which is ideal when you have a monster draw like this one. There isn't really a need to force all your money into the pot because any hand that will pay you now will likely pay you if you hit your money card.
I'm not saying this is the best way to play the hand, but it is a viable way to play the hand that would result in you not chipping-up your opponent unless he overbets the turn all-in, where you'd probably have to call anyways.
EDIT:
err I didn't read many of the responces ahead of mine and a couple people said the same thing. I don't think you can win the pot outright by making this raise. Heads up? Maybe. 4-way? Doubt it - You are basically representing a flush draw by overbetting here so a mediocre hand like bottom 2-pair or AK could easily make this call thinking it's good. Clealy nobody has bottom 2 in this position, but i'm talking hypotheticals here.
This is a great hand for discussion.
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:47 am GMT by supafrey
It would help if people here had even basic ideas about the equity we have vs different possible hands - like overpairs, AK, bottom 2, sets, etc.
Seriously.
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:51 am GMT by BeerWench13
Though I don't do this often, I have to agree with supa.
Dear God, the apocolypse is nigh!
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 5:55 pm GMT by exit music
| supafrey wrote: | It would help if people here had even basic ideas about the equity we have vs different possible hands - like overpairs, AK, bottom 2, sets, etc.
Seriously. |
I'm guessing you really don't want discussion on this comment but I'm bored so I did some calculations.
Firstly, the direct hand odds on the flop:
KTs vs. 22 = 31:69
KTs vs. AK = 46:53
KTs vs. 72 = 51:49
KTs vs. AA = 50:50
Pot preflop: $30
Flop: +$60, action is on you, there's $90 in the pot at the moment.
Okay to calculate your expected value in this hand you have to assign percentages as to the likelyhood of what hands you are up against, these are rough estimates:
Set- 20%
TPTK- 30%
Overpair- 10%
2 pair- 10%
other- 30%
I am going to assume that you are getting re-raised with the first 4 likelyhoods and the other hands will always fold. To make the calculation simple I'm assuming that every person has about 200$ behind, which means the total pot if you are re-raised will be about $510
EVraising=(30%*$90)+(10%*$260)+(10%*$255)+(30%*$234)+(20%*$158)
EVraising=$179.8
Considering it costs you ~200$ to win ~$180, where does the value come from raising in this hand? Unless you think you can make everyone fold more than 30% of the time or unless you think a worse hand will call you.
Meh.
edit: this also assumes that you still have 9 outs to hit your flush and none are burned, which is unlikely.
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 7:32 pm GMT by tame_deuces
The value comes from when hands which coinflip you fold.
Simple as that, and this entire discussion is silly. If the HH had shown everyone folding everyone would be applauding the daring bluff.
TP+flush draw is a monster hand in NL poker, playing it weak is weak. Period.
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:30 pm GMT by TheSalche
| exit music wrote: | | edit: this also assumes that you still have 9 outs to hit your flush and none are burned, which is unlikely. |
Yes, but theoretically other suits are also burned so you may not have 9 outs, but you'd still have 9/47 chance of hitting your flush on the turn/river.
This raise is a bit more of a "higher" level thinking here. Yes, we want a big multiway pot, which is actually why calling on the flop is not as profitable as raising. As has been mentioned, value here comes from a player folding TPGK or TPTK.
Bad thing here is that we don't have position so if we check the turn, our opponents may realize what we're doing and not check behind.
As was mentioned earlier too, since we have TP + flush draw, the two kings are unlikely to be outs, which is an argument for not playing this as hard.
Nice hand
Posted Tue Jan 09, 2007 11:44 pm GMT by exit music
| tame_deuces wrote: | The value comes from when hands which coinflip you fold.
Simple as that, and this entire discussion is silly. If the HH had shown everyone folding everyone would be applauding the daring bluff.
TP+flush draw is a monster hand in NL poker, playing it weak is weak. Period. |
BTW I'm not arguing because I think I'm right, I'm questioning because I want to know what is right. I think that my EV equation must be wrong because:
EVraisingifTPTKfolds=(30%*$90)+(10%*$260)+(10%*$255)+(30%*$90)+(20%*$ 158)
EVraisingif TPTKfolds = $137.10
That is less EV than you had before, and that assumes that 60% of the time everyone folds, if anyone here is a math geek I'd appreciate to learn what I calculated incorrectly.
This is clearly an easy push in a tournament setting when chips are life, but in a cash game the only goal is making +EV decisions and I'm not yet convinced this is one.
Ah I just figured out what my error was: in the (30%*$90) I forgot to add the money you put into the pot as your gain as well:
EVraisingifTPTKfolds=(30%*$220)+(10%*$260)+(10%*$255)+(30%*$210)+(20%*$ 158)
EVraisingwhen TPTKfolds=215.1
EVraisingwhen TPTKcalls=219.3
This assumes you raise 100$ on top of the first $20 bet.
Basically I've messed with this equation too much so I no longer care.
This is a grey-area hand so as you said, the discussion is highly theoretical and rather pointless. But pointless EV discussion are what poker forums are all about.
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 2:40 am GMT by TheSalche
This hand really isn't a math problem, its about the concept of raising with draws, when to do so, etc.
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 2:43 am GMT by supafrey
This discussion is far from pointless. The point of EV in more broad terms is maximizing our big pots, and losing little pots. With an even decently balanced strategy raising with these hands are a must. The equity is definitely in our favour, to start off, but let us also consider what a hand like this will do for our image - how much better does this hand make our other monsters?
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 3:18 am GMT by exit music
Good explanation supa.
Another question: if your opponent unknowingly showed you his set of 2s before you acted on the flop, would you play the hand any differently?
Also, I think every hand is a math problem. Expected value can be applied to every action of every street.
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 3:27 am GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | Also, I think every hand is a math problem. Expected value can be applied to every action of every street. |
Maybe. The real problem I have is the same one I have with most sklansky-esque thinking: The range calculations are almost always biased (results oriented) and almost always completely fuzzy/randomly chosen (30% this, 20% this, 50% this, etc). What about other flush draws? What about TP2K? TP3K? Image? What about how we've been playing so far? Hand history analysis is pretty shady in general (no 1 hand is in a vacuum by itself) but when we try and attach real number ranges to it it seems to get even more muddled.
And if we somehow saw a set, the obv play would be one that maximizes other people in the pot, etc. When you know exact cards actions become almost necessary/robotic, but thankfully all the sklansky bucks in the world can't really buy that kind of information.
The main trick for hands like this is playing it very similarly to our monsters - too many people have read SS1 and push with any "monster" draw like this one (other favourites include nut flush draws and straight flush draws of any kind), forgetting that they would RARELY if EVER play it the same way with their "real" behemoth hands. Simple enough point but I can attest to the fact that 90% of ppl that know to play "aggressive" rarely think this far ahead.
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:31 pm GMT by suitedaces84
It doesn't seem like there's enough bluff in this semi-bluff.
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:34 pm GMT by supafrey
suitedaces, can we make out?
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 11:34 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Trim that hair and I'll think about it.  
Posted Wed Jan 10, 2007 11:42 pm GMT by supafrey
I'm shaved. 
Posted Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:53 pm GMT by TheSalche
| supafrey wrote: | | I'm shaved. |
gross on so many levels that im saving it
|
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