Posted Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:47 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Apologies in advance for what is likely to be a long post.
I've been winning steadily at FL ring games for over two years. Moved to Stars when PokerRoom threw out the US players and in November, my first full month, was up $300 at one point (playing $1/$2 FL) and ended the month up $200. Then the last six weeks have been a nightmare. I finished up December down $160 and am down that much already in January. (I know, for some of you that's one hand or one buy-in but this is waaaaayyyy out of whack for my history.)
December was the "Month With No Cards." I'm pretty tight to begin with (except that I will certainly play those speculative 'multiway' starters when it is, in fact, multiway) but the starting cards just dried up. On those hands I did see a flop with the flops dried up. My AK came up dry hand after hand, my suited connectors had flops that weren't even close, my middle pocket pairs never made sets, etc. My December losses were probably 1/3 just getting blinded away (I was able to play a lot because of the holidays), 1/3 chasing good draws that never came through (draws I should have been chasing, or at least not horrible chases), and 1/3 calling down with weak hands I knew were probably beat just because I was so darn starved for anything to happen.
I started January by dope-slapping myself about the bad call downs, reread Sklansky, Miller, and Malmuth, and tightened up a lot. The starting cards and flops came back to a normal level but I now developed a new problem. I was making excellent hands in big pots but my excellent hands were getting clobbered by those once-a-game miracle suck-outs. I have easily had nine hands totaling over $400 where I was absolutely ahead on the turn but where the river sunk me. My hands included several flopped sets to my middle pocket pairs, straights made by the turn, and a couple of flushes made to my middle suited connectors.
The typical winning hand against me was a flush (including higher flushes) made when the river put a 4th card of the same suit on the board. One was a runner-runner that built a straight around my opponent's pocket eights against my flopped set of tens. My wheel straight in a $60 pot on the turn lost to a Broadway straight when the river put a jack on the board. One flopped set of sixes lost when the river gave the original raiser the set to their pocket queens. Two times I flopped Aces up (pairing both my Ace and my kicker) while opponent made a set of deuces (same guy in same game).
Worst of all I can't fault my opponents' play in most of the circumstances. They usually had odds to call down (others had built the pot--I didn't have much control over it) and they got paid off. And you certainly don't expect to win all of these hands, but you also don't expect to lose all of them either. Winning just half of them would have had me well ahead for the month and on track with recovering from December.
Finally, I have certainly had some good hands hold up but only two of them in $25+ pots. One set of aces netted me $6, quad sevens made me $4.50, and a set of kings paid off twelve whole dollars.
How do you handle runs like this? Do I need a break? I think that my play in January has been pretty solid. I took some risks but they were calculated (such as betting my set or straight with a 3-to-the-flush on the board at the turn). In every case (except against the SOB with the sets of deuces) I was ahead on the turn but lost the river. I don't feel like I'm on tilt and I don't feel like I'm letting the losses affect my play. But I am discouraged, especially as I watch my bankroll evaporate. (I can afford it--it's more like watching my success being stolen away from me.) I'm anxious to play but I also recognize a little bit of desperation in the desire to play, "Maybe this will be the table where I start the comeback."
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Posted Fri Jan 12, 2007 3:18 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Maybe you should try your hand at some Stud or O/8? You're just in a downswing, but negative variance sucks royally and can really crush your bankroll. I went through a 6-month slump (though playing NL) and when I started reading your post, it took me back to that time. Same things over and over. You're making the right plays but they're either not paying off or your opponent is catching on you. I found when I played stud for a few weeks (micro limits, of course, didn't want to do more damage to the BR playing a less familiar game), it seemed to help clear my mind, but also made me feel less "desperate for action" or like I was trying to win my money back. Going in with that thought alone always seemed to make matters worse for me. However, I didn't want to stop playing poker either. So, I switched over to stud and O/8 ring games and played a few NL MTT's as well. It seemed to help me and it also helped me branch out to games with which I had less familiarity. Just a suggestion.
Posted Fri Jan 12, 2007 5:16 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Variance is a bitch like that, I'm sorry to say. In the ups and downs of Limit Poker, that's bound to happen. If you feel that you need a break, then it's probably best to take a break.
However, I second BeerWench's suggestion that this might be the perfect opportunity to try your hand at a new game and see what happens. Omaha 8-or-Better is a good game, Stud high and high-low are good, and you could always try No Limit.
You sound like you have a solid grip on your psychology. If you need a change of pace, try something new. If you need a break, just take a break.
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:59 pm GMT by lwestatbus
It is official--I need a break and am going to follow Wenchie's advice.
The continuation of the clobbering has continued since the first post in the thread just as NeTeller left me high and dry for replenishing. When I was down to $80 in my account I dropped down from $1/$2 to $0.50/$1.00 but the abuse has continued. Three times my pocket aces were cracked when the flop had 88x in at and, you guessed it. My ace-high flush on the turn in a $35 pot (this is $0.50/$1.00 remember) got hammered when a fourth diamond built a straight flush around villain's pocket eights (do you see a pattern with the eights here?). One memorable session had two, count 'em, two wackos raising/reraising with wild abandon where the average pot in a 0.50/1.00 FL game was over $20 and a minimum of four callers to every flop but no joy. No sets to my pp, no hits to my suited aces or suited connectors. And finally, a continuation of the theme of four-flushed boards clobbering my solid hands.
Anyway, I'm going to hang out at the $1.00+0.10 multi-table NL SnGs for a while and also the FPP qualifiers. (I've got a zillion FPPs in just a few months--PS must really love me.) Whatever curse I'm under has to go away some day. Doesn't it?
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