How should I have played this? Over pair. |
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Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:52 am GMT by MrDarling
I obviously played this hand very bad - any suggestion as to what I should have done differently ?
Full Tilt Poker Game #1606309946: Table Rock Springs - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:05:27 ET - 2007/01/15
Seat 1: midwaymonster10 ($9.90)
Seat 2: ChipaJones ($11.75)
Seat 3: crimsonking19 ($10.80)
Seat 4: Toke11 ($3.70)
Seat 5: Hero ($8)
Seat 6: noir83 ($2.05), is sitting out
Seat 7: BabyGirl3 ($3.35)
Seat 8: leo1987 ($5.75)
Seat 9: Granny85 ($4.45)
crimsonking19 posts the small blind of $0.05
Toke11 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero  
noir83 has returned
Hero raises to $0.40
BabyGirl3 folds
leo1987 folds
Granny85 folds
midwaymonster10 calls $0.40
ChipaJones folds
crimsonking19 folds
Toke11 folds
*** FLOP ***   
Hero bets $0.85
midwaymonster10 calls $0.85
*** TURN *** 
Hero bets $1.10
midwaymonster10 calls $1.10
*** RIVER *** 
Hero bets $2
midwaymonster10 raises to $7.55, and is all in
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Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 10:09 am GMT by shorn7
Hmmm...I don't think you played this poorly. The guy either has a monster, is on a draw, or is a donkey who just caught an 8. The real question is should you call his river raise. That comes down to two things:
1. What are your pot odds?
2. What have you seen this player do and is he capable of making a large river bluff?
#1. Looks like there is $8.75 in there for you to call $5.55 or 1.5 to 1. Not great, but not horrible. Effectively, you have to think your hand is good about 40% of the time to make this a 0 EV call (i.e., it doesn't matter if you call or fold as the long term result is the same). So, it comes down to #2.
#2. What have you seen this guy do so far? Have you watched the hands he has tabled? Does he appear to be a donkey or has he mostly tabled strong hands? Is he capabe of doing this with JT since he missed his str8? These are all read dependent questions and is one reason why it is important to watch players and take notes when you aren't in a hand.
Absent any real information, and based on how villain played the hand, I might lay this down. In fact, I probably would have checked the river too since it didn't complete a draw and was one of the cards that could beat me. That way, you might get to showdown more cheaply than you did and you aren't subject to having to make a difficult decision like the one you are now faced with.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 11:27 am GMT by MrDarling
Excellent points Shorn.
I was trying to control The pot size. I understand your point about checking the river, though wouldn't this have bigger chance to induce a busted draw bluff putting me in the exact same situation?
Danny
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:02 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Personally, I'd have bet more on the turn, ~$2. Other than that, I think you played the hand fine.
The real question is how does villain play? What hand do you put him on here? Maybe 99? AJ? TT?
Without any information on how villain has played, it's tough to say whether or not to call the reraise on the river. With his just calling the whole way, I'm apt to put him on TT or AJ, but, again, impossible to say without more information on betting patterns and previous play.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:18 pm GMT by Jauron
River bet, if you are trying to control the size of the pot, is too big.
If I can't find a way to put an 8 in his hand or that he would have played Q10 this way I have to call it down at this level. If he flopped a set, oh well.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:35 pm GMT by shorn7
| Quote: |
I was trying to control The pot size. I understand your point about checking the river, though wouldn't this have bigger chance to induce a busted draw bluff putting me in the exact same situation?
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It very well might make him bluff. However, the size of his bluff will be smaller so you will have to most likely call less than the rest of your stack. Bottom line, you want to get to showdown with your hand and the decision is how best to do that and control pot size. I think check/calling is the best way to do that. For me to bet the river here, I need to be willing to call off the rest if he raises and I would not have been comfortable enough doing that to make me bet.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:41 pm GMT by khaosanroad
It would be eaiser if Chipajones was your opponent, he's aggressive and bluffs.
It's also possible that he is not giving you credit for an overpair.
without a read I let it go.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:10 pm GMT by MrDarling
no reads. Was multi tabling.
So most of you saying with no reads it should be folded?
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:01 am GMT by Jauron
| shorn7 wrote: | Hmmm...I don't think you played this poorly. The guy either has a monster, is on a draw, or is a donkey who just caught an 8. The real question is should you call his river raise. That comes down to two things:
1. What are your pot odds?
2#1. Looks like there is $8.75 in there for you to call $5.55 or 1.5 to 1. Not great, but not horrible. Effectively, you have to think your hand is good about 40% of the time to make this a 0 EV call (i.e., it doesn't matter if you call or fold as the long term result is the same). So, it comes down to #2.
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Less I am missing something there is like $12.50 in there and we have to call 3.55
How is ANYONE folding here getting 3.5 to 1 to call and only a few hands to dodge?
What exactly is our decision, if we want to lay down everytime someone bets or if we want to put over 50% of our stack in before we do it?
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:04 am GMT by supafrey
lol analyzing hand histories is so fuuuuunnnnnnnnnnn
"do you have reads"
"matters what kind of player"
"he probably has a monster"
"well what's your image"
"it depends"
and repeat, ad nauseum.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:49 am GMT by exit music
Raise more preflop
Raise more on the flop
Raise more on the turn
You gotta call the river b/c you stuck yourself to the hand. I'd say there's a hiiiigh chance you're beaten, although you might have counterfeited him on the river if he had J9 or something.
You gave him waaaaaay too nice odds to call on every street so he could have anything, even a pair of 8s. If he calls a bigger bet earlier, you can probably rule out hands like bottom pair on the turn... before he hits trips on the river.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:21 am GMT by MrDarling
| exit music wrote: | | Raise more preflop |
from UTG with such a hugh hand, what the point? i want action from crappy hands.
| exit music wrote: | | Raise more on the flop |
pot was $0.95 - a cont bet of $0.85 is not enough. I do not think most draws have the odds to call.
| exit music wrote: | | Raise more on the turn |
pot $2.65 - I'm trying to control the pot size with my one pair only and am betting a little more then 1/3 pot.
So I'm giving him 1-3 odds (right) which is not enough to even an open ended str draw. So I don't think I give him odds.
The river is actually not a scare card. sure there is a chance he'll stick around with 78 or even 8T, but if that's the case, I pay him.
Please comments about the odds - am not so comfortable with that part of holdem yet.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:22 am GMT by MrDarling
| supafrey wrote: | lol analyzing hand histories is so fuuuuunnnnnnnnnnn
"do you have reads"
"matters what kind of player"
"he probably has a monster"
"well what's your image"
"it depends"
and repeat, ad nauseum. |
You're absolutely right supa, again.
However since on the net we play a lot against unknown a discussion about particular hands can be helpful.
Don't you agree?
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:44 am GMT by BeerWench13
| MrDarling wrote: | pot $2.65 - I'm trying to control the pot size with my one pair only and am betting a little more then 1/3 pot.
So I'm giving him 1-3 odds (right) which is not enough to even an open ended str draw. So I don't think I give him odds. |
| MrDarling wrote: | | Full Tilt Poker Game #1606309946: Table Rock Springs - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em |
I play these levels almost daily as I rebuild my BR. People at these levels don't calculate odds as you think they do. If you want them out of the pot, you have to bet more on the turn. As I said, I think you did fine preflop and on the flop. At this point, it's pointless to try to keep the pot small. You're heads-up with an overpair on a semi-scary board. Bet more. He needs only to call $1.10 for $4.85. You actually gave him great odds to call and possibly catch, especially if you consider his implied odds as well.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:49 am GMT by MrDarling
Now I'm really confused about pot odds.
I thought one calculate them
Odds = bet / pot
So the current pot was 3.75 and the bet was 1.10 . Do you add your own bet (or in this case villain bet) to the equation ?
If not
Odds = 1.10 / 3.75 = 1 to 3.4 or 30% with max 8 outs if he is drawing he needs better odds to call, right?
please correct me if I'm wrong
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 1:33 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Mr D. you are correct, he had to call $1.10 to win $3.75, so he was getting 3.4:1 on his call, not enough to call with an 8 out straight draw. Wenchie is right about two things, though. First is implied odds. Your bet is small enough that, if he hits and gets even a small value bet out of you on the river, his call on the turn won't be so bad. Second is the play at these levels, players are definitely not calculating odds so much, and you can charge more for draws. You WANT donkeys to call with draws when you are betting 2/3 to pot size bets, you make a good profit from these calls in the long run.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:27 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| MrDarling wrote: | | please correct me if I'm wrong |
Nope. You're right. I guess I got a little + happy this morning on the adding machine. Sorry I was still a little drunk. 
No, wait, I know... that was $.05/.10 odds calculations for your average player. 
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