raising war with a hugh draw? |
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Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:30 am GMT by MrDarling
1st hand in the table.
MP raise 3.5XBB and I decide to call with my A7s planing to only play if I hit big.
the flop is great : Jd 9d 7s
I c/r and he reraise. Now what?
Full Tilt Poker Game #1612527921: Table Rock Springs - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:14:28 ET - 2007/01/16
Seat 1: MagicFinger ($3.80)
Seat 2: Ronnie534 ($13.20)
Seat 3: hero ($8)
Seat 4: Lucky2448 ($8.35)
Seat 5: RHINOSPUD ($3.80)
Seat 6: billh354 ($9.45)
Seat 7: Doctor Kelso ($24.75)
Seat 9: daRKplay ($10.70)
Ronnie534 posts the small blind of $0.05
hero has 5 seconds left to act
hero posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero  
Lucky2448 folds
RHINOSPUD folds
billh354 folds
Doctor Kelso raises to $0.35
daRKplay folds
MagicFinger folds
Ronnie534 folds
hero calls $0.25
*** FLOP ***   
hero checks
Doctor Kelso bets $0.40
hero raises to $1.45
Doctor Kelso raises to $5.10
hero?
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Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 10:22 am GMT by shorn7
I push here. I have to figure him for an overpair protecting against the draw, so if you are going to play, you MUST push. I figure I have at least 11 outs to win for sure (with the exception of him haveing JJ), and maybe more is he holds KK or QQ (14 outs).
The only downside is that the size of his re-raise means you have little fold equity here since he will definitely call for the rest of your stack. Depsite that, you have over 52% equity against both KK and QQ and 44% equity against AA. Since you hold an Ace, that means that AA is less likely for him, so I think the combination probability of your combined equity is high enough to push.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 11:23 am GMT by aaronw
I agree with Shorn here. You have a tonne of outs (unless he has a set). If he has KK or QQ you can with with any A,7, or diamond. If you call PF, this is the sort of flop you are looking for so I think you gotta go with it. It's either push or fold.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:02 pm GMT by Skribbles
Push.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:33 pm GMT by MrDarling
ok,
So even do we are real dogs to a set, A's and AJ its ok to push since our equity against other possible hands (K's, Q's , T's or a draw) and the small fold equity.
What about if he pushes first. Is it still ok to call?
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:40 pm GMT by Skribbles
He would be a complete moron to fold to your push even if he has 23o.
Posted Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:46 pm GMT by vyni
I'ld say we had a good flop here, but nowhere near a 'great' flop. Our 14 outs are to improve on our bottom pair... safe assumption that we're beat right now. Agree that it's push or fold at this point, but the only conditions in a ring game for which I'ld push here would be based on villans play. You said this is first hand, so we have no idea what this guy's playing.
14, holding the bottom, likely behind against an unknown: I'ld fold.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 12:43 am GMT by MrDarling
| Skribbles wrote: | | He would be a complete moron to fold to your push even if he has 23o. |
What? So you're saying we do not have any fold equity here?
And again, what do we do if he raised allin after my c/r, do we call?
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:03 am GMT by Skribbles
| MrDarling wrote: | | Skribbles wrote: | | He would be a complete moron to fold to your push even if he has 23o. |
What? So you're saying we do not have any fold equity here?
And again, what do we do if he raised allin after my c/r, do we call? |
You have basically zero fold equity. Unless I'm reading the HH wrong, your push would be about $1.20 for him to call in a $15~ pot. Zero equity.
You've commited pretty much 1/4 of your stack on the flop. Why fold? You have plenty of outs.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 4:02 am GMT by khaosanroad
He's the big stack, so he may be looking to push you around on your first hand. He might think you are using the C/R to push him off a missed flop. You have to push the rest of your stack in.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 4:10 am GMT by tame_deuces
Like Skribbles says, you have 0 FE.
It doesn't really matter if you call or push, but folding is bad.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 4:53 am GMT by MrDarling
Thanks guys.
btw Vyni, how did you get to 14?
I count 13 at best.
Any way, he had AJ which was one of worse case , luckily I did catch the Qd on the flop..
This started quite the talk on the chat, which made me get some people try moves on me and I got lucky again and again...
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 11:03 am GMT by suitedaces84
| tame_deuces wrote: | | It doesn't really matter if you call or push, but folding is bad. |
Good point. But I still tend to favor pushing because it involves pressing fewer buttons.
| MrDarling wrote: | btw Vyni, how did you get to 14?
I count 13 at best. |
2 7s + 3 As + 9  s = 14
Sometimes you'll have fewer. On average 13 outs is a good estimate. Which gives you a ton of equity. You easily have too much to fold with 1/4 of your stack in.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:33 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| suitedaces84 wrote: |
Good point. But I still tend to favor pushing because it involves pressing fewer buttons. |
Now I KNOW you leave no stone unturned in your quest for EV. 
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:04 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Might as well push, because if you're going to call (which you should), the money is going in anyway.
Posted Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:28 pm GMT by MrDarling
btw, does anyone has any objection to the c/r?
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