Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:08 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Here is a hand I played a good while ago. Maybe this should be in basic theory, but whatever, I post it here. Stakes are 50NL.
Button is a horrible loose passive player, he plays maybe 80% of his hands preflop, he'll limp then call any raise. I've been sitting at maybe 150-200 hands with him.
This was the first hand button had raised in that entire span of hands. He has about 60 big blinds behind. I cover.
Hero is in SB with: 3 4
Folds, Button raises 4xBB, Hero?
What's my play and why?
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Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:12 pm GMT by TheSalche
I fold. You want him to have a full and healthy stack so he'll pay you off here. You're suited connectors are also very low and likely to be the idiot end of a straight which could be sucked out on.
Granted this hand is the most likely to beat AA/KK you don't want to play it against this kind of player. You're way more likely to make money off him in the preflop situations when you raise 5 - 6xBB and he calls with jack 7 and pays you off with top pair, etc
Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:18 pm GMT by aaronw
And the fact that he doesn't necessarily have a really strong hand, your implied odds decrease dramatically because he is less likely to stack off when you hit a big hand. You are also out of position.
If you feel like he is just trying to steal the blinds, reraise or call the PF raise and lead into him on a innocuous board.
But I recommend just folding. No need to defend your blind here.
Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:27 pm GMT by Jauron
Fold, hand is over.
I know what your thinking but you've given no reason to think villian will go to the felt if you hit. Refusing to fold preflop and refusing to fold post flop are not the same thing.
Easier ways to make money off of Mr. No fold.
Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:37 pm GMT by TheSalche
| tame_deuces wrote: | This was the first hand button had raised in that entire span of hands. He has about 60 big blinds behind. I cover.
|
| Quote: | | And the fact that he doesn't necessarily have a really strong hand, your implied odds decrease dramatically because he is less likely to stack off when you hit a big hand. |
I think tame was trying to point out he has a very low PFR so he's probably playing aces or kings this "aggressively"
Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:46 pm GMT by aaronw
| TheSalche wrote: | | tame_deuces wrote: | This was the first hand button had raised in that entire span of hands. He has about 60 big blinds behind. I cover.
|
| Quote: | | And the fact that he doesn't necessarily have a really strong hand, your implied odds decrease dramatically because he is less likely to stack off when you hit a big hand. |
I think tame was trying to point out he has a very low PFR so he's probably playing aces or kings this "aggressively" |
Thats fair. Must have skipped over that part I guess. Even so, his stack is too short to be playing this hand out of position.
Posted Fri Jan 19, 2007 8:39 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Villain has ~16 times my call (3.5BBs since I've allready put in the SB) behind + pot , is a very bad player and we have a fair assumption of what he holds.
Is it a 100% fold?
Posted Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:38 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
I dont know if he neccesarily has aces or kings. Just because he hasn't raised yet, doesn't mean he has to have a big hand. You're oop and the BB has yet to act. Too many unknowns to make the assumption that if you hit 2pair+ on the flop you'll be able to take his stack.
Posted Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:34 pm GMT by TheSalche
| Jefecaminador wrote: | | You're oop and the BB has yet to act. Too many unknowns to make the assumption that if you hit 2pair+ on the flop you'll be able to take his stack. |
bingo
Posted Sat Jan 20, 2007 7:19 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Out of position this is an easy fold against a player of his stack size.
Posted Sat Jan 20, 2007 11:09 pm GMT by Phil14312
If we can stack everytime we hit two pair or better I call here all night and all day. Lets play some poker.
Posted Sat Jan 20, 2007 11:24 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Phil14312 wrote: | | If we can stack everytime we hit two pair or better I call here all night and all day. Lets play some poker. |
Thinking we're going to stack him every time we flop two pair or better is a tad optimistic in my opinion. Flopping a draw with this hand could be very hard to play out of position, and most of the time this hand it's the flop, it makes a draw of some sort.
Posted Sun Jan 21, 2007 2:47 am GMT by Phil14312
"Button is a horrible loose player"
"This is the first time he's raised preflop in 150-200 hands"
He's got a big hand, stack him when you flop hard, fold when you don't. Horrible loose players don't let go of big pockets on innocous (sp?) flops.
Posted Sun Jan 21, 2007 4:32 pm GMT by suitedaces84
You realize you can hit 2 pair or better and not have the best hand in the end, right?
34 only has ~73% equity when you flop 2 pair vs. an overpair. It has ~91% with trips.
Posted Sun Jan 21, 2007 7:45 pm GMT by Phil14312
| suitedaces84 wrote: | You realize you can hit 2 pair or better and not have the best hand in the end, right?
34 only has ~73% equity when you flop 2 pair vs. an overpair. It has ~91% with trips. |
yes, but getting it in as a 70/30 is pretty good.
We have huge implied odds and able to get rid of our hand on any flop that doesn't hit us hard.
Posted Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:31 pm GMT by suitedaces84
It makes a huge difference. I think you're underestimating this. If you get all-in for $60 with a 90/10 edge how much do you stand to make? $48 How about a 70/30 edge? $24. These are your implied odds, not the full $60.
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:06 am GMT by TheSalche
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | It makes a huge difference. I think you're underestimating this. If you get all-in for $60 with a 90/10 edge how much do you stand to make? $48 How about a 70/30 edge? $24. These are your implied odds, not the full $60. |
ty suited for sweeping in and using math as a good point
also we stand to probably lose money if we hit a flush draw, since he'll be all-in on the flop or turn given his stack size, the flush draw is a small, but important reason why suited connectors are powerful
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:01 am GMT by tame_deuces
60BBs is plenty not to be all-in on the turn, plus a bad player such as this can be expected to bet wrong in relation to the pot quite often (either under or overbetting, both which is good for us).
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:30 am GMT by TheSalche
Since you seem to enjoy not listening to arguments for folding I'll re-state
a. implied odds are tricky, as suited pointed out we may still be not the biggest overdog if we hit two pair
b. smallish stack size
c. this player is bad enough so there are better spots to get their money, i.e. valuebetting the crap out of them with top pair, etc
d. these are very low suited connectors, certainly weaker than hands like 78, since your hand and his hand are less likely to connect together on a given flop
d. out of position
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:43 am GMT by tame_deuces
I haven't neglected to listen to the arguments, I merely stated my view on one of them. I can't really say I have been overly argumentative of anything in this thread.
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:29 am GMT by MrDarling
Suited, can you explain a little better the math behind your reasoning ? How did you get to $48 ? 90% of $60 is $54 
btw, seems like villain stack is 60BB and not $60 (which will be 120BB)
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:25 pm GMT by tame_deuces
If you have a 90% edge of 60 bucks, you'll win 54 bucks from your opponent and lose 6 bucks of your own stack at an average. 54-6= 48.
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:23 pm GMT by Phil14312
| TheSalche wrote: | Since you seem to enjoy not listening to arguments for folding I'll re-state
a. implied odds are tricky, as suited pointed out we may still be not the biggest overdog if we hit two pair
How do you propose to get our money in with better odds than two-pair against an overpair, a smaller two-pair doesn't really make that much of a difference between being counterfeited.
b. smallish stack size
60 BBs isn't really that small.
c. this player is bad enough so there are better spots to get their money, i.e. valuebetting the crap out of them with top pair, etc
this is a cash game, any-time we are profitable we should be exploiting it. This is not a valid argument. Would your argument change if you knew the villain would leave the next hand?
d. these are very low suited connectors, certainly weaker than hands like 78, since your hand and his hand are less likely to connect together on a given flop
How does 78 connect more with flops that AA or KK connects with than 34? I would even argue that against AA, 34 can potentially hit the flop harder than 78.
d. out of position
against a bad player, position matters less as we usually know exactly where we stand. But I will grant you that position is a relevant factor. |
/b
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:26 pm GMT by TheSalche
Phil,
For point a. I wasn't saying there is a way to get our money in with better odds against an overpair, I was merely repeated suited good and valid point
60 BBs is small when the buyin is usually 100BBs, when we stack him that 40BBs more, 66% more, and that makes a HUGE difference in implied odds.
If a play is only slightly EV, when there are more plays that are much higher EV, you should go for the big EV plays. No Limit is a battle of the mistake and if your opponent is prone to making big mistakes you need to exploit those and disregard the smaller ones.
My point 'd' is wrong ... you win that one 
Position matters even against a bad player, since it is easier to get money in with position. Raising OOP means you're either check/raising and bet/3betting, and OP stated this player is loose passive so it is less likely for them to bet or raise. We may scare off hands with a check/raise.
Posted Mon Jan 22, 2007 9:59 pm GMT by Phil14312
I agree that 100BB stacks make this much more enticing, but I don't think a call is wrong, just keeping folding away there nitbox 
Posted Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:28 am GMT by MrDarling
This turned out to be a real interesting read. You guys rock.
Hi Suited (or anyone else who can), can you give us one of your big overall EV equation for calling from OOP with small suited connectors.
It will involve some guessing work as we can't tell how often villain will commit all his stack when we do hit our miracle flop. But I do enjoy reading those EV posts
Thanks
Danny
Posted Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:35 am GMT by suitedaces84
| MrDarling wrote: | | Hi Suited (or anyone else who can), can you give us one of your big overall EV equation... |
I'm sorry to say that's not how it works. These things are only as accurate as the assumptions made in order to create one. This usually means not very accurate. In situations where you have only a few options they can be quite useful. Given only your starting hand and an opponent's range there are too many possible outcomes to calculate. In situations where there are only a few possible outcomes they are much more useful.
The point I was making is that flopping a big hand will net far less than $60 even if the button never folds.
Tame already showed one way to find the EV given that you're a 90 to 10 favorite. The way I think of it is the pot will be $120 and you'll get 0.9$120= $108 of that on average. But you'll have put $60 in. So $108 - $60 = $48.
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