Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:33 am GMT by kompis
http://www.pokerhand.org/?767606
Now this hand is the most important of the whole mtt for me, ive built up to 6k from playing fairly creatively raising and continuating in position and a few bluffs on the river... In this hand there is a few limpers preflop, i decide to lead out with my paired 3 and see where every1 was at, i also had an inside straight draw to back me up. I get two callers here and they can have a range of hands, people call these bets on the flop with Just an Ace, two overs with one spade, a flush draw, even some people have misplayd a hand like A5,66 or 77 in this spot....when the 3s comes off on the turn it is a funny card for me, i now know im defo beating any1 calling with a pair but the flush draw is out there... i decided to bet fairly large to make anybody with only a single spade pay, perhaps the A of spades... When the chap re raises all in I know he has the flush, or as much as u can "know" in poker... Of course he could have the straigt or an allready made full house.. but everybit of instinct inside me (derived from playing thoussands of hands in hundreds of mtts) and his betting told me he had the flush....so i fold right? well i sized up the pot and if i called and won i would be on 10k or more, a stack like that and i should be able to final... Tehn i calculated my outs, any 5 = 3 outs.... any 2 = 3 outs... any A = 3 outs.. and of course the fourth 3 made 10 outs... so im roughly 5/1 to win the pot if he does indeed have a flush. The pot is laying me about 4/1 .. if i fold i am left with around 3 - 4k... if i call and lose i am left with about 2k in my mind there is not much difference in play between these two pretty short stacks. But should i manage to boat it up the change would be substantial - it would set me up for a mtt win. I decided to Gamble, the disadvantageous odds made up for by the potential cash earnings should i win the pot. Situations like these dont come along that often in mtts so if it appears a good gamble and u can play a good short stack game (should u lose the pot) i think its a +EV mtt move.. I won the pot and went on to make the top 3...
Now the intresting points are a) is it possible for me to "know" he has made the flush and thus risk majority of my stack where i could allready be drawing pretty dead?
- personally i thought from the way he played it, no re raise preflop or on flop (with a set or overpair pp where straights and flushes are rife) that he did not have a boat... and my instinct was telling me he definately had only got the flush... and in poker i have only ever improved and changed my game by going with my reads.
b)is it right to call even tho clearly mathematicaly incorrect?
Once i put him on the flush any doubt over whethere i drawin dead is out the window, i have put him on that hand now i focus on my own decision.
I didnt see alot of diference in the way i would have to approach the mtt if i lost by calling his raise or folded to his raise. Both stacks would be below average and i would have to play ss... but if i won the advantages were great.
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Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:08 am GMT by Ciso_B
You sound pretty convinced its +Ev so not sure why you posting.....?
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:27 am GMT by kompis
I am convinced its +ev, i want to see what other people think... like someone would in an open forum.... oh wait this is a forum you tw@t
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 4:37 pm GMT by TheSalche
The mathematical call is only slightly incorrect here, and what you gain from winning this hand in terms of your position in the tournament is critical. You've already invested a lot in the pot, and clearly by folding and making the mathematically "correct" move you're going to have trouble winning this tournament.
In tournaments you have to consider both chip EV and money EV, and this may be a slightly minus chip EV call, but a very good money EV call
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 5:52 pm GMT by Jauron
Pot is laying you 2.5/1 thats a far cry from the 4/1 you are claiming here.
Don't like the call, mostly because you are putting him on a hand that has you beat heremaking the odds suck.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 12:53 am GMT by Jefecaminador
Blinds are only at 60/120, if you fold now you still have ~4600 left which is about 38 big blinds. Still plenty of play left. You don't have to take a gamble that only pays off 20% of the time.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:19 am GMT by kompis
yea you are right its only about 2.6/1 i miscalculated that...
i still call here though, tha chance of getting above 10k vs losing down to 2k makes it worth it in my opinion. 4.5k and 2k (the 2 stacks i would have if i folded or called and lost) are both not good stacks... obviosly 4.5k is better than 2k but i was happy to take a shot at getting well chipped up, or play short stack. This is because i am very comfortable on the short stack and confident i can survive and pick my spots. But the advantages of the large stack is immense, unless u get caught up in a big pot with a big hand, u can steamroller your way to the final table. For the 20% of the time i win this hand i beleive i will final table or at least make the last 2 tables almost all the time. If im down to 4.5k i will basically have one or two plays in me, and if they dont work out im short stackd and with 2k i am short allready so i can play for double ups.
The worser odds than i had incorrectly worked out definately make this a more debatable call.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:41 pm GMT by Jauron
I'll have to go with Cisco then and say why are we talking about this when you've already decided.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 4:42 pm GMT by Ciso_B
he wants to see what other people would do in this spot.... its a valid post, sorry mate
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