AA, great flop, scary turn...Easy fold? |
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Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 6:56 pm GMT by mackkie
PokerStars Game #8135151275: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/26 - 18:54:17 (ET)
Table 'Euphrosyne II' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: IOwnFejj ($116.80 in chips)
Seat 2: derek7 ($248.80 in chips)
Seat 4: grolegogo ($88.70 in chips)
Seat 5: all_in_4tw ($98.95 in chips)
Seat 6: Ostatoy ($254.85 in chips)
IOwnFejj: posts small blind $0.50
derek7: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IOwnFejj  
grolegogo: folds
all_in_4tw: folds
Ostatoy: raises $3 to $4
IOwnFejj: raises $12 to $16
derek7: folds
Ostatoy: calls $12
*** FLOP ***   
IOwnFejj: checks
Ostatoy: bets $7
IOwnFejj: calls $7
*** TURN *** 
multitummen2 joins the table at seat #3
IOwnFejj: bets $33
Ostatoy: raises $198.85 to $231.85 and is all-in
$61 more for me to call, what would you do?
Hey, at least i didnt slow play it pre flop 
My read: havent seen him show down many winners because he plays so agressively PF on on the flop that not many people hang with him, but he appears to be solid because he won $150 within the 1/2 hour i played with him.
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Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:31 pm GMT by zinn0
I think this is an easy call. Lots of hands that we beat love this board.
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:47 pm GMT by mackkie
Can we run through what possible hands could have called me pre flop with a $16 re-raise AND beat me??
Only logical conclusions i can come to are AK suited, maybe AQ if hes a loose cannon, and more likely 1010-AA (i know i have AA as well, but its possible)
No flush draw and i couldnt imagine him calling with any sort of open ended straight draw unless he had 1010.
No way he could have flopped 2 pair.
Could we worry about a set? would he have called with 77-99 16x the big blind pre flop?
I am ceritantly showing major strength and isnt 77-99 an easy lay down?
Let me know if this analysis is on par with most of you guys.
BTW, I called, but ill let you know the outcome after some answers from your guys.
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 9:17 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Why, after showing such strength pre-flop, did you only check/call the flop?
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:58 pm GMT by mackkie
Because the flop looked so great for me, why scare him outta there? Am i going to put in a huge re-raise PF then on the flop to drive him out of there?
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 11:22 pm GMT by Jauron
| mackkie wrote: | | Because the flop looked so great for me, why scare him outta there? Am i going to put in a huge re-raise PF then on the flop to drive him out of there? |
Did you also not think that flop is pretty harmless to most hands that would have called that ridiculous re-raise preflop? What hand would WE have reraised like that preflop and checked the flop with?
Bet the flop, a big pair is going to do a lot of things we like on that flop including sometimes re raising us, checking only looks dumb against anyone who can think at all. If you have to be tricky bet smallish like around $10 and see if he goes for it. The only acceptable answer IMO for why you check there is he is super aggresive after playing very loose preflop and we know he'll bet it at least once, and maybe twice.
BTW, this is an easy call, your turn bet made sure of that.
Posted Fri Jan 26, 2007 11:34 pm GMT by mackkie
Well guys, it seems like it doesnt even really matter what i did on the flop because he called my 16x bb re-raise with 88. He flopped a set. I personally would have laid down 88 with a big re-raise like that. The whole time i played at that table ive played only solid hands and only showed down some quality hands, like a flopped set, etc. He didnt have much reason to believe i was re-raising with 109 suited or something. Oh well.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 5:59 am GMT by MrDarling
A lot of players will call hugh raises with any PP... Especially a hugh PF reraise screams of weakness not strength.
Had you bet the flop you could have thought he might caught something once he reraised you or worse, just flat call. (when aggressive flat call you know he thinks he is ahead)
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:46 am GMT by aaronw
I think you have to bet that flop. You get value from hands you are ahead of and also protect your hand. I think you are definately behind here. I think he flopped a set of sevens or eights. I think you should have folded to his massive reraise. I don't think you are beating much that he would play this way besides KK or maybe QQ.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 1:54 pm GMT by mackkie
| aaronw wrote: | | I think you are definately behind here. I think he flopped a set of sevens or eights. |
You wouldnt have said that if i didnt post the results of the hand. Its pretty difficlut to justify 2 pair or a set with that flop after i re-raised $16 in a $100NL game.
I personally couldnt have put him on 77-88, possibly 99.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:21 pm GMT by aaronw
| mackkie wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | I think you are definately behind here. I think he flopped a set of sevens or eights. |
You wouldnt have said that if i didnt post the results of the hand. Its pretty difficlut to justify 2 pair or a set with that flop after i re-raised $16 in a $100NL game.
I personally couldnt have put him on 77-88, possibly 99. |
Didn't read results before that, sorry. You guys are approximately 120bbs deep. Don't pull a Phil Hellmuth and say he can't have 77 or 88 because he called my raise PF. What do you think he is betting on the flop then pushing after you bet on the turn? In this position he is only doing this with a hand that beats you. This is an example of overplaying AA. You really only beat a weaker overpair. What do you think he has? Sorry you lost, but you have to look into his betting and think about what he has. He has your pair beat 80% of the time here, I would think.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:29 pm GMT by mackkie
id say 80% of the time is a little much considering the re-raise. You are absolutely crazy if you think he has me beat 80% of the time on this flop considering the pre-flop action. I would say just the opposite of you, i have him beat 95% when a flop looks like this. If he calls with AJ-AK I have him dominated and if he calls with 22-AA, the only hands that could have beat me are 77, 22, 88 on the flop.
I think most here would agree with me that after this flop i prob. have him beat 90-95% of the time.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:37 pm GMT by aaronw
OK! Don't take my advice. In my experience, he is not playing his hand this way without having you beat. After he pushed the turn, what did you think he had? TT, JJ, QQ, KK?
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:42 pm GMT by mackkie
He def. didnt have 2 pair or a straight. He could have easily been pushing with an over pair.
My point is in no way am i beat 80% of the time here after this flop like you said.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:45 pm GMT by aaronw
OK! Not to be rude, but why did you post the hand? If you didn't want analysis on the hand and for some people to say that you are beat, just put it in the bad beats forum. I think you are beat a high percentage of the time based on his play.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:40 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Entirely player dependent. Against a certain category of players, this is an easy fold, but against others it's an easy call.
The fact that so much went in preflop leads me to believe he has an overpair, although I suppose he could have you crippled with 88 or 99.
| Quote: | | Its pretty difficlut to justify 2 pair or a set with that flop after i re-raised $16 in a $100NL game. |
Not in my experience. That's why I can't answer this question without knowing what your opponent is like.
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 6:29 pm GMT by Skribbles
| MrDarling wrote: | A lot of players will call hugh raises with any PP... Especially a hugh PF reraise screams of weakness not strength.
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Please explain how a big re-raise "screams of weakness"./img
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 9:21 pm GMT by TheSalche
actually played with that same villain today ... he did this one hand
POKERSTARS GAME #8153909611: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/27 - 20:35:36 (ET)
Table 'Kriemhild' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Ostatoy ($214.60 in chips)
Seat 2: HonestAL1029 ($146.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Tug2 ($108.75 in chips)
Seat 4: TrustBuster ($97 in chips)
Seat 5: Sonny617 ($117.80 in chips)
Seat 6: lllFSlll ($99.50 in chips)
TrustBuster: posts small blind $0.50
Sonny617: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sonny617  
lllFSlll: folds
Ostatoy: calls $1
HonestAL1029: folds
Tug2: folds
TrustBuster: calls $0.50
Sonny617: checks
*** FLOP ***   
TrustBuster: checks
Sonny617: checks
Ostatoy: checks
*** TURN *** 
TrustBuster: checks
Sonny617: checks
Ostatoy: bets $3
TrustBuster: calls $3
Sonny617: folds
*** RIVER *** 
TrustBuster: checks
Ostatoy: bets $5
TrustBuster: raises $7 to $12
Ostatoy: raises $198.60 to $210.60 and is all-in
TrustBuster: calls $81 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ostatoy: shows  (a flush, Ace high)
TrustBuster: mucks hand
Ostatoy collected $192 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $195 | Rake $3
Board
Seat 1: Ostatoy showed and won ($192) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: HonestAL1029 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Tug2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: TrustBuster (small blind) mucked  
Seat 5: Sonny617 (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 6: lllFSlll folded before Flop (didn't bet)
given how he played that with the big raise when he's ahead, could be a fold
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 9:25 pm GMT by TheSalche
Now that I actually read some of the posts here ...
This is actually a fold here (sometimes). I have seen a lot of times that villains will lead light into the flop to try to get you to raise them or try to figure out if you have a hand or not ("value bet"ish).
When he then shows tremendous strength on the turn after you c/c and then bet the turn, he's usually killing you.
This hand is much simpler if you
a. bet the flop or
b. c/c flop and go for a c/r AI on the turn ... if he bets big on the turn, maybe you can find a fold there
Posted Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:06 pm GMT by aaronw
| TheSalche wrote: | Now that I actually read some of the posts here ...
This is actually a fold here (sometimes). I have seen a lot of times that villains will lead light into the flop to try to get you to raise them or try to figure out if you have a hand or not ("value bet"ish).
When he then shows tremendous strength on the turn after you c/c and then bet the turn, he's usually killing you.
This hand is much simpler if you
a. bet the flop or
b. c/c flop and go for a c/r AI on the turn ... if he bets big on the turn, maybe you can find a fold there |
I agree 100%. Especially with what I bolded.
Posted Sun Jan 28, 2007 3:08 am GMT by MrDarling
| Skribbles wrote: |
Please explain how a big re-raise "screams of weakness"./img |
Well, I'm wrong. A hugh raise can be a sign of weakness. ie. I have a decent hand but don't really want costumers (like mid pocket pairs).
A big reraise can seem like a steal attempt though.
Posted Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:17 pm GMT by Gunslinger
mackkie, you seem really incredulous that he called your re-raise pre-flop w/ 88. But the size of your stack (which he had covered), plus the fact that you didn't let go of your overpair (which maybe he had a read on), is the definition of him having implied odds to call you before the flop, trying to hit a set.
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