How to calculate odds?? Help please... |
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Posted Tue Jan 30, 2007 4:45 pm GMT by cayouche
Let me explain.
Calculating odds for a hand played heads-up is easy, but what about when it's played by n-players, where n is 3 or more??
I know there's many calculators online, including a pretty good one here, but understanding how to do the calculations is part of a project me and a friend have.
Is there anyone that can help me by either explaining or redirect me so I could understand more the maths behind all this??
Thanks in advance.
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Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:17 am GMT by shorn7
Please be more specific. Best thing might be to give an example of a situation that you are trying to figure out and we can go from there.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:52 am GMT by cayouche
I don't need to be more specific, because it's not for a specific hand.
I just want to know the general way to calculate odds in a n-way hand. Let me rephrase, I would like to know how this one (TH-P) works. I know it's probably done by iterations, but what is the algorithm??
Thanks guys.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:59 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I'm going to suggest this is a more generalized math problem that few of us here, if any, would actually be able to answer satisfactorily. I'd recommend you do some research into Monte Carlo simulations since there's really no other way to tackle these problems efficiently.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:06 am GMT by tame_deuces
The most common way is the Monte Carlo method. It is a very generalized theme where you use random numbers and probabilities for simulating real life events containing alot of uncertainties (like poker hands).
If you google for the monte carlo method and computers, I'm sure you can find examples of how to implement in. You'll probably even find its use in poker/gambling simulations explained.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:07 am GMT by tame_deuces
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | I'm going to suggest this is a more generalized math problem that few of us here, if any, would actually be able to answer satisfactorily. I'd recommend you do some research into Monte Carlo simulations since there's really no other way to tackle these problems efficiently. |
Photo finish!
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:07 am GMT by cayouche
I know Monte Carlo (actually, I was a few minutes from the casinos last October, but I didn't have time to visit), but I'm not an expert. Would that be by playing the same hands for say 1,000,000 times (probably even more) and see which one wins most??
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:11 am GMT by tame_deuces
Yeah, you pretty much just run a bunch of hands with random outcomes and if you run enough the odds given are close to the real thing.
The important bit is making it random enough.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:21 am GMT by cayouche
Well, I'll do some research like you've said, thanks. I did use Monte Carlo back at university, in a small program to calculate Pi, at 15 digits precision. Fairly easy. We used a RNG, I think it was 16-bit (not sure, it's been 7-8 years), so it's like 32768 different possibilities.
Anyway...
How come the one here (TH-P) is so fast?? Is it because it uses a db for the results, so it doesn't do the calculations over and over??
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 2:02 pm GMT by Adam Marshall
Our calculator is deterministic, so no Monte Carlo simulations are done. We have a database of some of the answers, like all heads-up preflop hands, but not every possible situation. If we made a database of all possible answers, it would take longer to process because the db would be so damn big.
I have no idea how it works though. The math behind it is too powerful for a low-level wizard like myself.
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 2:24 pm GMT by cayouche
Thanks Adam.
I noticed it was powered in part by (spam). Their source code is free I believe. I'll try and see if I can find answers there.
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