Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:53 pm GMT by exit music
STAGE #561439425: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.10 - 2007-01-31 16:55:08 (ET)
Table: JOLIET (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 4 - FCDAN ($6.49 in chips)
Seat 5 - NUTFLUSHIN ($33.53 in chips)
Seat 1 - ASTRODG ($19.20 in chips)
Seat 2 - WILWYNN ($20 in chips)
Seat 3 - CHADMACK ($11.51 in chips)
NUTFLUSHIN - Posts small blind $0.05
ASTRODG - Posts big blind $0.10
WILWYNN - Posts $0.10
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to ASTRODG  
WILWYNN - Checks
CHADMACK - Folds
FCDAN - Calls $0.10
NUTFLUSHIN - Calls $0.05
ASTRODG - Checks
*** FLOP ***   
NUTFLUSHIN - Checks
ASTRODG - Bets $0.30
WILWYNN - Folds
FCDAN - Calls $0.30
NUTFLUSHIN - Folds
*** TURN *** 
ASTRODG - Bets $1.50
FCDAN - Calls $1.50
*** RIVER *** 
ASTRODG - ?
My opponent has $4.59 left in his stack.
What kind of hand do I put him on here? My bet on the flop doesn't gain too much information, I overbet the pot on the turn to give myself an idea of where I stood.
okay pls discuss.
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Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:59 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
JT is a reasonably likely possibility here. If he has a set (or really, any hand that beats you), I don't see why he wouldn't try to get more money in on the turn.
If he has backdoor diamonds, I'm paying him off, because you just can't put a guy on that kind of hand. I'd bet about $2 for value on the end and probably have to call any push from villain.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:10 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | If he has backdoor diamonds, I'm paying him off, because you just can't put a guy on that kind of hand. I'd bet about $2 for value on the end and probably have to call any push from villain. |
+1
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:32 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
I hope your turn bet wasnt to gain info, but to get money in the pot. Would you have folded if he pushed the turn? I hope not.
I prolly bet a little more than the 2$ DC suggests, prolly something like 2.75 and definately call a push.
Posted Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:43 pm GMT by TheSalche
I think this is the perfect spot for a check/call, we're losing to a lot of hands here, 67, 7T, QT, diamonds, 89, sets.
Betting and calling a push is a bad idea because we are ahead pretty much 0% of the time there.
Check/calling allows weaker hands to make a stab at the pot (something like A9 or K9) but it lets us lose less when we're behind.
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 3:49 am GMT by exit music
| TheSalche wrote: | I think this is the perfect spot for a check/call, we're losing to a lot of hands here, 67, 7T, QT, diamonds, 89, sets.
Betting and calling a push is a bad idea because we are ahead pretty much 0% of the time there.
Check/calling allows weaker hands to make a stab at the pot (something like A9 or K9) but it lets us lose less when we're behind. |
Perfect analysis salche, I like your style. You were exactly right in your thoughts (except for what he had), but the check does 2 things:
-induces a bluff from weaker hands or missed draws
-potentially cuts your losses
There are not many hands that call a raise without pushing that I can beat. The only hand I can think of that I lose value from here is   , and I'm not sure it's worth betting.
However.....
*** RIVER ***
ASTRODG - Bets $2.80
FCDAN - All-In(Raise) $4.59 to $4.59
ASTRODG - Calls $1.79
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FCDAN - Shows   (Two Pair, jacks and threes)
ASTRODG - Mucks
FCDAN Collects $12.53 from main pot
Jack-three... standard. Definitely lame, but I did give him implied odds to call me on the flop.
GOTTA LOVE .05c/.10c NL
!!!!!!
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 4:16 am GMT by Phil14312
I don't think that betting about 2-3$ and calling a push from an opponent with his stack size, at these limits, would ever be wrong.
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 4:34 am GMT by TheSalche
| Phil14312 wrote: | | I don't think that betting about 2-3$ and calling a push from an opponent with his stack size, at these limits, would ever be wrong. |
as dumb as a lot of people at these limits are, they tend to be much more loose passive rather than attempting to make ridiculous bluffs, you're only getting raised by hands that beat you, and i challenge people to show me more than 2 hands in similar situations as this where you are raised on the river with weaker hands
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:01 am GMT by exit music
| TheSalche wrote: | | i challenge people to show me more than 2 hands in similar situations as this where you are raised on the river with weaker hands |
Considering this guys's range for limping includes, , he might automically push on the river due to how comitted he was with:
Posted Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:04 am GMT by exit music
Perhaps a very strangely played AA/KK/QQ, it doesn't look like too bad of a board for an overpair - I would probably push on the river too and be mad I let my opponent see the flop for free with 3-9
Posted Fri Feb 02, 2007 3:49 pm GMT by Phil14312
| TheSalche wrote: | | Phil14312 wrote: | | I don't think that betting about 2-3$ and calling a push from an opponent with his stack size, at these limits, would ever be wrong. |
as dumb as a lot of people at these limits are, they tend to be much more loose passive rather than attempting to make ridiculous bluffs, you're only getting raised by hands that beat you, and i challenge people to show me more than 2 hands in similar situations as this where you are raised on the river with weaker hands |
With his stack size, you are going to be getting like 5-1 or 6-1, and you are going to fold?
Posted Fri Feb 02, 2007 7:46 pm GMT by TheSalche
no phil, like i said, i am not going to bet the river, im going to check/call it,
Posted Sat Feb 03, 2007 12:00 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
| TheSalche wrote: | | Phil14312 wrote: | | I don't think that betting about 2-3$ and calling a push from an opponent with his stack size, at these limits, would ever be wrong. |
as dumb as a lot of people at these limits are, they tend to be much more loose passive rather than attempting to make ridiculous bluffs |
Which is exactly why you want to bet out. You have a very good chance of getting a weak one pair hand to call you, you dont want to have to rely on him trying to bluff you.
Any hand that he is pushing after you bet, is also making a big bet on the river, which you've already said you're calling so you're not really saving yourself that much money if you're beat.
What it comes down to is, are you making more money of a missed draw that tries to bluff, or having a weaker hand call you down. I'd say theres a lot more value in the latter.
Posted Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:48 pm GMT by exit music
| Jefecaminador wrote: |
Any hand that he is pushing after you bet, is also making a big bet on the river, which you've already said you're calling so you're not really saving yourself that much money if you're beat.
What it comes down to is, are you making more money of a missed draw that tries to bluff, or having a weaker hand call you down. I'd say theres a lot more value in the latter. |
The only thing here is whether or not my opponent would bet his whole $4.59 into a pot of $3.90, I kinda doubt he would, so I'm potentially saving some money here if I check, which may make up for some lost value when I check and get checked behind by Jx.
Realistically though, I should have known that my hand probably isn't good after getting called on the turn after making a 1.25x pot bet... although he didn't raise. Oh I dunno, whatever, damn I sure hate playing out of position.
Posted Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:59 pm GMT by supafrey
I would bet about half their stack or more if I think they could call off with a jack here.
Posted Sun Feb 04, 2007 2:22 am GMT by suitedaces84
| TheSalche wrote: | | as dumb as a lot of people at these limits are, they tend to be much more loose passive rather than attempting to make ridiculous bluffs, you're only getting raised by hands that beat you... |
So why don't you bet and plan to fold if you get raised?
I see what you're saying, but I think you misapply this a lot. You would be better off with a c/c if they would bet more worse hands than they would call with. But I really doubt this is true here.
If your opponent had a tendancy to make stupid river bets (bets that will rarely get better hands to fold or worse hands to call) you might just want to let them do the betting.
But if they would bet weak hands with showdown value why not c/r?
A similar situation comes up in FL a lot. When you're OOP on the river you should often bet for value (you're betting knowing that you won't fold out a better hand) even if your equity is less than 50%.
Posted Sun Feb 04, 2007 5:22 pm GMT by TheSalche
Good points there suited, I def. see where you're coming from.
If the board had an ace/king instead of that jack, would you recommend a check/call then? What changes the hand from a bet to a check/call?
Posted Mon Feb 05, 2007 6:17 am GMT by fiezk
| TheSalche wrote: | I think this is the perfect spot for a check/call, we're losing to a lot of hands here, 67, 7T, QT, diamonds, 89, sets.
Betting and calling a push is a bad idea because we are ahead pretty much 0% of the time there.
Check/calling allows weaker hands to make a stab at the pot (something like A9 or K9) but it lets us lose less when we're behind. |
This is a fundamental error that many players make. And the reason is simple, consider:
A) You are ahead. Villain happily called a big bet on the turn, there are hands he'll put more money in with that we still beat. A lot of players would still call a reasonable bet on the river with a hand like A9 or K9, JT, QJ, etc.
B) You are behind. Straight, set, higher two pair are all likely comfortable with the situation and eager to put their money in on the river.
By checking, villain will only (well, almost) put more money in with a hand that beats us, but by betting he'll put money in when we are ahead also. The only time I like this check-to-induce-bluff move is when villain most likely missed a draw. There are no draws that doesn't have us beat, or have showdown value in this hand.
Wether or not to call a push is tough, we are very likely behind but are getting huge odds. I'd probably call - mostly out of curiosity 
Posted Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:02 am GMT by shorn7
I like to lead here. I am in the corner of "there are more hands that we beat that villain will call with than he will bet with here, then there are hands that he would play this way that we lose too". IMO, c/c in this spot is lower EV than leading over time.
And yes...I call a push on that board.
Posted Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:50 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| TheSalche wrote: | | If the board had an ace/king instead of that jack, would you recommend a check/call then? |
No. I'd still bet. If you don't need to worry about being bluffed you should bet a ton in spots like this.
| TheSalche wrote: | | What changes the hand from a bet to a check/call? |
If your hand was so weak that you'd have a hard time getting called by a weaker hand or folding out a better hand c/c or c/f is usally right. A small blocker bet is good if it will keep your opponent honest. I guess it depends on how your opponent plays.
Another thing to consider is how many better hands he'd check behind with. The more better hands that would check the more likely you should be to check. It's hard for me to imagine someone checking behind with a winner here.
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