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Posted Tue Feb 06, 2007 8:37 pm GMT by zaxxon23
I know this isn't very high stakes or anything, but it still seems like a valid hand to analyze, and I'm annoyed cause I can't stop thinking about it.  .05/.10 NL hold'em $25 max buyin game. I was quite loose and agressive for the past hour or two, so others were giving me great action. My opponent had a big stack, built by winning some big hands but had scared people out of the pot with big bets before. I think I was bluffed, but I couldn't get myself to call the hand. What do you guys think? Is there anyone here who would call this if they had a feeling they were being bluffed? Or is it obvious that he probably had three 3s? Yes, I know I *should* have raised pre-flop, but I was trying to vary my play, and had raised nearly 90%+ of the time previously.
PokerStars Game #8305451844: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/02/06 - 07:09:54 (ET)
Table 'Celestia' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ($30.90 in chips)
Seat 2: XX ($14.75 in chips)
Seat 3: XX ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: XX ($18.80 in chips)
Seat 5: XX ($31.40 in chips)
Seat 6: XX ($9 in chips)
Seat 7: Villian ($107.85 in chips)
Seat 8: XX ($23.20 in chips)
Seat 9: XX ($11.20 in chips)
XX: posts small blind $0.10
Villian: posts big blind $0.25
XX: posts small & big blinds $0.35
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero  
XX: folds
XX: folds
Hero: calls $0.25 (Note I usually raise here but was simply mixing up my play on occasion)
XX: folds
XX: folds
XX: checks
XX: folds
XX: calls $0.15
Villian: checks
*** FLOP ***   
XX: checks
Villian: checks
Hero: bets $1
XX: folds
XX: folds
Villian: calls $1
*** TURN *** 
Villian: checks
Hero: bets $2
Villian: raises $2 to $4
Hero: calls $2
*** RIVER *** 
Villian: bets $25.75
Hero: folds
Villian collected $10.60 from pot
Villian: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $11.10 | Rake $0.50
Board
Seat 1: zaxxon23 folded on the River
Seat 2: XX folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: XX folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: XX folded on the Flop
Seat 5: XX (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: XX (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: Villian (big blind) collected ($10.60)
Seat 8: XX folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: XX folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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Posted Tue Feb 06, 2007 8:49 pm GMT by Ensano
with no reads pointed out and assuming an average player I'd say this is an easy fold... from the BB he could have some garbage 2 pair or even a 3... for what relatively little you have invested, even if it's the best hand, lay it down and forget it even happened... you're beat more than you're ahead...
Posted Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:04 pm GMT by vyni
Villan check/called the flop, then check/min-raised the turn...
Then risks 25 for a 10 buck pot? If he's bluffing, he's a fool for sure but why didnt he try to chase you out earlier?. If he's not bluffing, well he's still a fool with that bet. Not worth calling here to find out exactly what kind of fool he is though. Dangerous situation, assume it's not a bluff and move on imho.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 9:41 am GMT by Poto
In my opinion it's very likely that it's one of those players who forgets to get enough money in the pot before the river so when they get there they just go for the monster bet and prays someone will pay off their monster. I think it was a good fold, it most definitely is a majority of the times.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 9:53 am GMT by Jauron
I hate going broke in this spot when I let the blinds in for free. We can beat a lot of hands but he's certainly representing that 3, and it costs us a lot to find out.
Fold it without any reads on the player.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 12:25 pm GMT by MrDarling
In full ring from MP KQ is not necessary a raising hand - in fact its probably a muck hand. But thats a different story.
Now, if you are being aggressive and raise a lot, you should defiantly raise with hands you consider strong. Strong when weak and weak when strong is a bad players signature.
As for this hand,
You over bet the flop ($1 into $0.75) I usually read this as a steal attempt and not a value bet. Why push people away if you have the best hand?
So villain might consider the same.
The turn is indeed ugly, but will he really call a pot bet with 3rd button? Then shame on him. So why does he mini c/r? He checks to see if you have the 3. When you just call he sure you don't have it.
If you consider seeing SD with this hand you need to reraise. If he goes over the top again, its time to fold and know he has the best hand!
The push on the brick river is again, an obvious steal attempt. Why would he want to push you off if he have the best hand.
All that said and done. like stated above you don't have much invested in the pot and this is a good fold.
Though I probably make a crying call if my guts tell me to.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 12:37 pm GMT by Ensano
call me a nit but I don't call big river bets anymore unless I have a REALLY good reason to... from personal observation (and I think I read this somewhere also I think DC made a comment about it) is this move is the new fake bluff... when the villian is OOP and has the made hand instead of c/r (like you assume he would) they make a big bet (2/3 to pot) making you think they missed something... then you make the crying call to see you're well behing...
I've been trying to research this more and I have yet to find a situation like this where when I made the crying call and actually won...
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 1:04 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| Ensano wrote: | | this move is the new fake bluff... when the villian is OOP and has the made hand instead of c/r (like you assume he would) they make a big bet (2/3 to pot) making you think they missed something |
I can't count the number of times I've seen this move (or used it) lately, especially at the lower level cash games. It looks so much like a bluff that you get your opponent to call off a huge portion of his stack when you're holding a monster. It's a great tool to use against certain players, but can really eliminate the chance to get any value on the river with your big hand against most players.
| Ensano wrote: | | I've been trying to research this more and I have yet to find a situation like this where when I made the crying call and actually won... |
It's been quite some time for me also.
I also agree with Mr. D that I probably wouldn't raise in MP with this hand unless I was sitting in a rock garden.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 1:38 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Absolutely nothing wrong with opening with KQ, its not like its going to win you alot of money over the long run, but its not like its going to cost you alot of money over the long run either. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and assume open-folding KQ in MP is the road to poker profits.
This looks like a completely standard fold, C/R on turn and open-shove for an overbet on the river and it isn't even really dreadfully important if he is bluffing anymore.
Some kind of pissing match and repeated overbet offences and its prolly a standard call.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:03 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| tame_deuces wrote: | | Let's not get ahead of ourselves and assume open-folding KQ in MP is the road to poker profits. |
Though Mr. D made a different statement, mine was | BeerWench13 wrote: | | I probably wouldn't raise in MP with this hand unless I was sitting in a rock garden. |
There are no "always" or "nevers" in poker.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:52 pm GMT by lwestatbus
I think that villain had pocket eights and was worried that you might have been slow playing pocket kings. Your limp after a 90% raise history would get my attention. I think his relatively small (compared to his stack size) check raise on the turn was an information bet and when the river didn't deliver a king he was pretty sure his hand was good. The size of his river bet meant he was either overconfident in your willingness to call (based on your past hands??), an idiot, or bluffing. But he could have had a suited A3 also. Actually, I don't have a clue--but that's never stopped me from replying to a post before.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:25 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Most important rule in NL Holdem...don't be willing to risk your whole buyin with just TP. That rule alone will save you a fortune.
Posted Wed Feb 07, 2007 10:33 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
Easy fold. I've recently returned to playing low buy in NL holdem (mainly cause I withdrew/donked off a large chunk of change) and I've been pretty surprised. Alot of players just sit around waiting for a good hand and then overbet like woah. Kinda makes me think players have the impression they're only playing donks who will pay them off all the time.
But then again, don't we all think we're poker gods and eveyone else is a donk?
Posted Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:45 am GMT by MrDarling
again,I would like to think that I can make this fold.
| Ensano wrote: |
I've been trying to research this more and I have yet to find a situation like this where when I made the crying call and actually won... |
However I can bring up few examples when I made the crying call trusting my instinct (or ignoring my brain) where I did infact won a hugh hand to a river allin.
On the other hand I can bring even more example where my crying call did in fact brought tears to my eyes and drained my BR...
btw Tame , all I said is that the KQo is not necessary a raising hand. Table and image depended I might raise from MP with anything.
My main point was, if your image is LAG, you should never limp with a hand YOU consider to be strong. Thats such a sign of strength.
Posted Thu Feb 08, 2007 8:32 am GMT by tame_deuces
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Most important rule in NL Holdem...don't be willing to risk your whole buyin with just TP. That rule alone will save you a fortune. |
Nah, sorry UaU but this is a bad rule.
You have to consider who you are playing, in what game you are playing, potsize, stacksize, pot-odds, future streets and past streets.
With experience these decisions probably becomes second nature.
And in a NL game a buy-in should never mean alot to you, if it is I would actually suggest playing a lower stake.
In some cases calling off with TP is a laughably easy decision, in other it is hazy, sometimes folding is easy. And sometimes we will probably sit there without the slightest clue as to what we should do. That's poker.
Posted Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:31 am GMT by BeerWench13
| tame_deuces wrote: | | And sometimes we will probably sit there without the slightest clue as to what we should do. That's poker. |
This happens more often than I'd like to admit in the weekly homegame I play. I'm just really glad that, when I started playing regularly, this group was the one I cut my teeth on. They make playing just about any other game a breeze. They're a tough bunch and stump me far too often for my liking. However, I'd rather play with stiff competition when I'm "practicing" in my home games. It makes all the other games like fighting Mickey Mouse when you're used to fighting The Incredible Hulk.
Posted Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:59 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Hehe, I recognize that one from my usual homegame. All the people there play online all the time so they have tons more experience than me and really have me confused sometimes. Then I made my 'when in doubt: bet' motto and that seems to work pretty ok yet.
Posted Fri Feb 09, 2007 8:59 am GMT by BeerWench13
| tame_deuces wrote: | | Then I made my 'when in doubt: bet' motto and that seems to work pretty ok yet. |
Excellent motto. I'll have to try that with these guys. I hate sitting there scratching my head wondering what in the hell they're betting/calling with and whether they're milking me when I think it's the other way around. I skipped last night's game to go look at some real estate, but I'll remember the motto for next week.
Posted Fri Feb 09, 2007 9:18 am GMT by shorn7
I have a different issue in my homegame. One of the guys I play with is a pro who can read me like a book. For example, we were playing a PL Omaha Hi only hand (double board where the pot is split between two the best hand on each board or you can scoop) and it was just me and him on the river. He checked to me and I bet as I had a very strong hand (but not the nuts) on each board (str8 on a flush board and top two on the other). He checkraised me for a large amount and as I was in the tank, he called my hand perfectly by saying "King Ten in pain" which is exactly what I had. So, he knows my hand and still checkraises! Talk about having trouble with a decision after that....I called and we chopped, but still.
Posted Fri Feb 09, 2007 9:21 am GMT by BeerWench13
That's the beauty of being a woman. No one seems to be able to get a good read on me. The problem I have is that I've played with these guys too many times and sometimes past hands affect my judgement.
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