$100NL. KK hand. How was this? |
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Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:00 pm GMT by aaronw
Villain is 60/50/3 over 20 hands. No real reads other than that. The stats aren't that significant since its a small sample size. Thoughts on this hand? How would you play it differently?
Table Table 128031 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: AgransamFnRu ( $96 )
Seat 3: Timmy8sja ( $80.77 )
Seat 4: eMSig ( $131.55 )
Seat 5: Hannibal229 ( $176.25 )
Seat 6: DODGYKEN ( $109.95 )
Seat 2: cbboy01 ( $99 )
cbboy01 posts small blind $0.50.
Timmy8sja posts big blind $1.
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to cbboy01  
eMSig folds.
Hannibal229 folds.
DODGYKEN folds.
AgransamFnRu raises $4
cbboy01 raises $13.50
Timmy8sja folds.
AgransamFnRu calls $10
** Dealing Flop **   
cbboy01 checks.
AgransamFnRu bets $18
cbboy01 calls $18
** Dealing Turn ** 
cbboy01 checks.
AgransamFnRu is all-In.
cbboy01 calls $64
** Dealing River ** 
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Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:52 pm GMT by Ensano
depends on what his went to SD % is... if extremely high then maybe a call... anything normal I swear at the comp screen and fold..
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:55 pm GMT by aaronw
| Ensano wrote: | | depends on what his went to SD % is... if extremely high then maybe a call... anything normal I swear at the comp screen and fold.. |
The stats are only over 20 hands so that statistic would be very unreliable. And where would you fold? Flop or Turn?
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:12 pm GMT by kingetje
i would bet the flop
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:22 pm GMT by Phil14312
| aaronw wrote: | | Ensano wrote: | | depends on what his went to SD % is... if extremely high then maybe a call... anything normal I swear at the comp screen and fold.. |
The stats are only over 20 hands so that statistic would be very unreliable. And where would you fold? Flop or Turn? |
60/50 is a pretty loose player, even over 20 hands I would presume.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:26 pm GMT by aaronw
| Phil14312 wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | Ensano wrote: | | depends on what his went to SD % is... if extremely high then maybe a call... anything normal I swear at the comp screen and fold.. |
The stats are only over 20 hands so that statistic would be very unreliable. And where would you fold? Flop or Turn? |
60/50 is a pretty loose player, even over 20 hands I would presume. |
I was mainly talking about the went to SD% here.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:27 pm GMT by aaronw
| kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no?
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:53 pm GMT by kingetje
| aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? |
cause i wanna pick up the pot right now
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:57 pm GMT by Skribbles
| aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no? |
How do you plan on winning this hand then? Check/Call the whole way and pray that he doesn't have an ace? I guess if you're a call station this would be a good line.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:59 pm GMT by aaronw
We fold out all worse hands and an A never folds. Where is the value in the bet? Should we not want to get value from worse hands here? Also, our hand does have showdown value and we may be winning right now. Also, there is no need to bloat the pot here. We should atleast attempt to exercise some pot control. What do we do if called? Raised?
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:01 pm GMT by aaronw
| Skribbles wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no? |
How do you plan on winning this hand then? Check/Call the whole way and pray that he doesn't have an ace? I guess if you're a call station this would be a good line. |
The thoughts process is more along the lines of letting inferior hands bet where they would regularly just fold the flop. I plan on winning the hand because my hand has showdown value. I think you guys are too hasty in just assigning the villain an A because there is one on the flop.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:36 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| aaronw wrote: | | Also, our hand does have showdown value and we may be winning right now. |
All evidence to the contrary.
| aaronw wrote: | | Also, there is no need to bloat the pot here. We should atleast attempt to exercise some pot control. |
Which worked marvelously. Especially the part where villain gets his entire stack in on the turn.
| aaronw wrote: | | What do we do if called? Raised? |
Save some of your stack? I'm still trying to figure out which part of this hand we were supposed to like.
| aaronw wrote: | | I think you guys are too hasty in just assigning the villain an A because there is one on the flop. |
Actually, I was relying more on the preflop raise/call followed by the bet on the flop and the push on the turn.
Ok, now tell us he had QQ so you can feel smart.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:45 pm GMT by aaronw
He didn't have QQ. I am just trying to get some interesting discussion on the hand instead of "fold because there is an A".
First off, KK does have showdown value, you can't just assign villain an A.
And I said we should ATTEMPT some pot control meaning that we shouldn't be bloating the pot ourselves. Pot control is very hard out of position.
And I never said you are supposed to like any part of the hand. I was just looking for some analysis.
And I can't just automatically assign him an A since he raised PF (which he does a lot) and called my 3-bet. I think lower pairs are more likely than a hand like AK, AQ here.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:45 pm GMT by Skribbles
| aaronw wrote: | | Skribbles wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no? |
How do you plan on winning this hand then? Check/Call the whole way and pray that he doesn't have an ace? I guess if you're a call station this would be a good line. |
The thoughts process is more along the lines of letting inferior hands bet where they would regularly just fold the flop. I plan on winning the hand because my hand has showdown value. I think you guys are too hasty in just assigning the villain an A because there is one on the flop. |
You are going to lose alot of "value" by calling down with a losing hand.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:47 pm GMT by crack
You played this hand quite poorly I'd say.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:47 pm GMT by aaronw
We can't just assign him an A because he bets. Doesn't his turn bet look pretty big? It looks like he is trying to push me off my hand. I think check/calling is better than folding since I will atleast get some value out of some worse hands whereas if I bet I am not getting called by any worse hands.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:51 pm GMT by crack
Why risk his whole stack trying to get you off a hand for such a small pot in comparison?
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 9:53 pm GMT by aaronw
| crack wrote: | | Why risk his whole stack trying to get you off a hand for such a small pot in comparison? |
I don't know. I can't explain these players thought process. Also, did you look at his stats? lol. Also, did I mention this was on Party Poker? lol.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 10:05 pm GMT by snoogins47
| aaronw wrote: | | We fold out all worse hands and an A never folds. Where is the value in the bet? Should we not want to get value from worse hands here? Also, our hand does have showdown value and we may be winning right now. Also, there is no need to bloat the pot here. We should atleast attempt to exercise some pot control. What do we do if called? Raised? |
A bet with what turns out to be the best hand doesn't have to get called by a worse one to be right. You're probably right that a lot of people completely fumble by crapping their pants when a A flops, or by 'taking down the pot right now' when they're way ahead of most of the worse hands. That doesn't necessarily make this check right or wrong though.
The big questions, are what does our check do when a)he's got an ace, b)he's got a lower pair than As, and c)he's got two unpaired cards < A
Checking the flop may get us a smidge more value in case B and C. The problem of course is that it doesn't get us that much more. Occasionally we check behind, he bets the turn with a worse hand, we call, and check down the river and win against QQ, but the reverse implied odds of getting involved past the turn with an opponent you don't know particularly well (when it becomes a guessing game as to whether or not your hand is *just strong enough* to call a river bet) are pretty much sucksville. If we've got the best hand, he hates the Ace as much as we do.
I think betting this flop against most opponents is pretty much unquestionably right. We have plenty of showdown value against his current range of hands, but getting to showdown is going to take a lot of spewage.
| Quote: | | "I will atleast get some value out of some worse hands whereas if I bet I am not getting called by any worse hands." |
There's a balance here. You may be sacrificing value against lower pairs and pure bluffs by betting the flop, but if your premises are accurate, check this out: By betting the flop, you narrow his hand range DOWN TO KNOWING EXACTLY WHERE YOU STAND. Information is worth something too.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 10:24 pm GMT by aaronw
Excellent analysis snoogins. Thank-you very much. I will say now that my play was to check call flop and then check fold to any further aggression. However, is turn bet very suspicious to me. I found that his bet was very large and I thought he was trying to push me off my hand. I felt that he had an A he would either bet smaller to get some value or check behind to induce a bluff on the river. So I called since I thought he was bluffing... although that wasn't the plan all along.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 10:49 pm GMT by Ensano
just playing devil's advocate here but what about a c/r on the flop? this option hasn't been mentioned...
it would entice a bet by a worse hand while also letting us know how much the villian likes his hand... if he comes over the top we can fold hapily...
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 10:51 pm GMT by aaronw
| Ensano wrote: | just playing devil's advocate here but what about a c/r on the flop? this option hasn't been mentioned...
it would entice a bet by a worse hand while also letting us know how much the villian likes his hand... if he comes over the top we can fold hapily... |
I think that is the worst option as (again) it folds out all worse hands and I only get called by worse hands. bet folding the flop is OK (but not the best move IMO) or check calling the flop is WAY better than check raising here.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:00 pm GMT by mackkie
Im no expert here, but isnt the only way we are going to take down the pot is if you are the one pushing and not him?
To a push like that isnt it an easy fold?
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:13 pm GMT by aaronw
The thing about a push is that AK/AQ/sets calls and everything else folds. So there isn't much value.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:19 pm GMT by Skribbles
| Ensano wrote: | just playing devil's advocate here but what about a c/r on the flop? this option hasn't been mentioned...
it would entice a bet by a worse hand while also letting us know how much the villian likes his hand... if he comes over the top we can fold hapily... |
You are then losing more $$$ to find out where you are. If you C/R and take down the pot, great. If you are called or re-raised you have invested probably twice as much as leading out would have and gotten the same information on your opponents hand.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:22 pm GMT by Ensano
well I guess you're just looking for everyone to agree with you're line of thinking... you have KK you 3bet preflop... if you're not going to show agression on this flop then you should prob stick to slowplaying AA...
yes you want worse hands to play you but check/calling down here is just playing fish poker...
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:28 pm GMT by aaronw
I'm not just trying to get everyone to agree with me. I am trying to get some analysis beyond "there is an A, fold" or "just bet". Snoogins did a great job analyzing the hand. If anyone wants to counter my points, I would be really appreciative.
Posted Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:37 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| Ensano wrote: | just playing devil's advocate here but what about a c/r on the flop? this option hasn't been mentioned...
it would entice a bet by a worse hand while also letting us know how much the villian likes his hand... if he comes over the top we can fold hapily... |
There aren't many scenarios where I like co c/r the flop as the preflop raiser. Actually I can only think of two scenarios.
1. My opponent is so bad he doesn't really know what I am doing.
2. I am in the CO to an aggressive guy in pos with people out of pos behind him. Had one today, I raise KT from the hijack, button and both blinds call. Flop comes A T 2, I check it to button knowing he is going to bet, if the blinds fold I c/r him & bet turn if he calls, if they call/raise I'm pretty much out of the hand.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:11 am GMT by Jauron
| aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no? |
How many worse hands are gonna bet here?
What hands are checking this flop? (From villians perspective?) You slow playing AK or AA here?
If you are gonna check this flop with plans of calling anyway you might as well bet out and give yourself two ways to win.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:36 am GMT by snoogins47
I think checkraising only becomes best against a smart, aggressive player, who has us pegged as straightforward/maybe somewhat nitty. Then again, check-raising is probably only wrong in that scenario with AK, AQ, AA, 88, or 33.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:54 am GMT by jeffonline
My read on some players may be well off the mark.
I agree you can’t always put some one on an A but we want to be correct when playing for all our chips, I would have expected the villain to slow down if he was worried by the A, we do have a pre-flop raise from the SB and a substantial flop call, which should answer any questions villain has as to our hand strength, I don’t believe villain could discount you having an A. It just does not look like a good position for the villain to bluff from. Some times we make up or mind before the flop as to how we are going to play a hand and no matter what falls we go with it. It appears that this may have happened to both players in this hand. You both wanted to get all your chips in.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 5:25 am GMT by exit music
You have to think about what kind of hand your opponent is putting you on. He knows you have a premium pair or AK/AQ. He might think you have a pair or queens or jacks and is betting with a shit hand, he might have flopped a set and is betting so much because he assumes you have AK.
I just can't agree with check-calling your whole stack with crossed fingers hoping he doesn't have an ace or a set.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:00 am GMT by aaronw
| Jauron wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no? |
How many worse hands are gonna bet here?
I think a lot. He could put me on a PF steal and bet with absolutely anything thinking that I just gave up post flop since he called PF
What hands are checking this flop? (From villians perspective?) You slow playing AK or AA here?
Again, he could think that I was trying to steal and now have just given up
If you are gonna check this flop with plans of calling anyway you might as well bet out and give yourself two ways to win.
That is flawed logic in my opinion since he will bet with a lot more hands than he will call a bet with. IE- he may bet with TT, but not call a bet with that hand, make sense?
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Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:17 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
You have 20 hands against this guy, and so far you've figured out he thinks you're restealing, probably doesn't have an A and is folding the worst hand every time you bet.
FPS
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:56 am GMT by aaronw
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | You have 20 hands against this guy, and so far you've figured out he thinks you're restealing, probably doesn't have an A and is folding the worst hand every time you bet.
FPS |
I said that he COULD think that I am restealing. And its pretty obvious that he folds every better hand if I bet myself, thats self-explanatory and pretty easy to figure out.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:05 pm GMT by Jauron
| aaronw wrote: | | Jauron wrote: | | aaronw wrote: | | kingetje wrote: | | i would bet the flop |
Why? Folds out all worse hands and only gets called by better hands, no? A raise would allot the villain to play perfectly against me, no? |
How many worse hands are gonna bet here?
I think a lot. He could put me on a PF steal and bet with absolutely anything thinking that I just gave up post flop since he called PF
What hands are checking this flop? (From villians perspective?) You slow playing AK or AA here?
Again, he could think that I was trying to steal and now have just given up
If you are gonna check this flop with plans of calling anyway you might as well bet out and give yourself two ways to win.
That is flawed logic in my opinion since he will bet with a lot more hands than he will call a bet with. IE- he may bet with TT, but not call a bet with that hand, make sense?
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I want to be sure of what you are saying here. Villian is bad enough to put his stack in the middle in 2 bets with QQ,JJ,1010 X,X after getting called on the flop, but good enough to fold said hands if we bet here? Villian is also bad enough to call preflop with ANY TWO CARDS, but good enough to fold on the flop to an A on board.
You really believe that, or you just making a case to check/call your kings? You are gonna tell me you do, but its such a bad line to take I can't believe you insist on taking it.
So far the only real point you have for playing it this way is villian is going to push with any two cards and we're ahead of THIS villian enough to let him do it. I dont' buy that, not after 20 hands.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:23 pm GMT by aaronw
I am not saying that I am always ahead here. I am just saying that his range for betting is much wider than his range for calling a bet. Also, I must say that this is not a line that I always take here. However, if I plan on felting with this hand, check calling down is far superior to any other line, IMO, for reasons already stated. My plan on this hand was the check call the flop and then fold to any further aggression. However, his bet on the turn just felt like he was trying to push me off my hand so I decided to call thinking that he had a smaller PP and was just trying to push me off my hand. This isn't a line I take often though. I just thought it was an interesting hand.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:52 pm GMT by efram
What'd he have?
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:54 pm GMT by aaronw
| efram wrote: | | What'd he have? |
9  8 for 14 outs  . Luckily he bricked the river...
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:13 pm GMT by Skribbles
And if he showed an ace would we have had a 3 page discussion on how you played the roll of call station and lost your stack?
Good thing we are not results oriented.
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:17 pm GMT by Ensano
| Skribbles wrote: | | Good thing we are not results oriented. |
Posted Mon Feb 26, 2007 8:09 pm GMT by aaronw
| Skribbles wrote: | And if he showed an ace would we have had a 3 page discussion on how you played the roll of call station and lost your stack?
Good thing we are not results oriented. |
I dunno. I still would have posted it and I would still make the same points. I am not saying that the calling the turn is standard, I was just stating my thought process.
Posted Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:15 am GMT by Ciso_B
I don't really look for value in this hand tbh I mean its difficult to extract value from a weaker hand anyway. I lead the flop here sometimes I think though (folding to re raises) and check the flop sometimes too, If he checks behind I MAY wel look to value bet a later street......But seriously heres a situation I am not concerned with getting paid off from a weaker hand. I ll happily get Q-Q to fold here if it stops him betting me out.
The way you played the hand I would probably fold on the turn, you played your hand like you are scared of the Ace (KK,QQ,JJ) on flop - reluctant call or you flopped top set here. Check/calling like you trapping.Just my thoughts.
Well done on the correct read but questionable whether your play throughout even against a lag is +ev.
Posted Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:37 am GMT by aaronw
Interesting analysis ciso. Like I said before, this is not a play that I make often. It was based on feel so I guess it was more of the table dynamics / feel / read than the correct play, I guess...
Posted Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:47 pm GMT by thefranchise
If you put him on being a "donk", haha - then great play/call. For some reason, whenever I'm dealt K's - I ALWAYS see an Ace on the flop, and get pretty pissed, and I think I end up folding...sucks...That's why whenever I get K's now, I raise BIG preflop.
Posted Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:50 am GMT by TheSalche
I'm gonna take a stab at this analysis here ...
Check/calling down is a poor choice for this hand since we're pretty much AI by the river if our opponent is making 2/3 ish pot bets. If we check/call the flop and turn, a worse hand really isn't going to bet the river since they'd have much less than a pot sized bet leftover.
The reason we bet this flop is for a few reasons:
1) We 3-bet preflop, if you 3-bet preflop you pretty much have to cbet everytime, thats what puts the "fear" of the 3bet into your opponents. If they know that you're going to bet the flop regardless, they might think about calling that 3bet a little longer. Stopping the aggression is bad for table image
2) I think that better hands bet way more than worse hands do. However this guy is apparently aggressive (even for 20 hands those stats show he's aggro, maybe not 60/50, more like 35/25 or 40/20). So maybe this point is incorrect.
The rest of the hand is much harder to play w/o betting this flop, in fact this whole hand sucks to play because we're OOP with kings in a re-raised pot and an ace came.
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